Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
220 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO WILL ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
NOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH WILL MIX OUT AND REFORM FARTHER
NORTH BY THIS EVENING. VERY DEEP LAYER OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR...GOOD OVERRUNNING PATTERN...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ACTIVE EVENING ACROSS THE CWA...MAINLY WEST AND
NORTH. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING FROM THE GILA EASTWARD ACROSS SIERRA
COUNTY AND INTO THE SACS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE NOW IN SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA...INCLUDING SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND FAR
WEST TEXAS. THAT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL
DRIFT SLOWLY WEST INTO NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA BY TUESDAY...THEN
FARTHER WEST TO NORTHERN BAJA BY THURSDAY. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
KEPT THAT HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER NORTH...WHICH WOULD HAVE BROUGHT
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION WITH A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. TRACK INDICATED ON THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS WILL ALLOW A
DEEP LAYER OF MOIST AIR TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND ALSO ALLOW WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE WESTERLIES TO DIP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT OUR AREA. WILL
NOT JUMP ON THIS SOLUTION AND INCREASE POPS BASED ON ONE RUN...BUT
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN THE GILA AND ACROSS THE
NORTH INTO THE SACCRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. SINCE ADDED CLOUD COVER WITH
THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HAVE ADJUSTED TEMP GRIDS DOWNWARD
ONLY ONE OR TWO DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 14/00Z-15/00Z...
A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA WITH A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
MINOR DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SETTING OFF ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOW AREA FLOODING ESPECIALLY
FROM 00-15Z. CONDITIONS GENERALLY SCT LOW CLDS 3-5K AGL WITH BKN TO
OVC MID/HI DECKS ABOVE 10K AGL. CONDITIONS MVFR TO IFR IN TSTMS WITH
CIGS 2-3K OVC AGL AND OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30KTS NEAR STORMS. POTENTIAL
CB TOPS TO 49K AGL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE AND WILL BE
PERTURBED AT TIMES WITH THE REMAINS OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MINOR UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN AND
A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOOD IN LOW LYING AREAS
WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
START TO MOVE AND REBUILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY...BRINGING
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THAT HIGH PRESSURE
MAY ALSO BRING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER SCENARIO THAT WOULD
SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
MOVING INTO LOWER DESERTS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 69  91  72  94  73 /  50  30  30  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        62  85  65  92  66 /  40  20  30  20  20
LAS CRUCES              66  90  69  94  70 /  50  30  30  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              62  87  65  90  66 /  50  40  40  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              48  67  51  68  52 /  50  50  40  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   62  85  65  90  66 /  60  40  40  20  20
SILVER CITY             57  81  60  82  61 /  80  40  30  30  30
DEMING                  63  88  66  92  67 /  60  30  30  20  20
LORDSBURG               64  88  67  93  68 /  80  30  30  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ022-023-
     030>032.

TX...NONE.
&&

21/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1148 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2008

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-141800-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1148 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

VERY MOIST AIR OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
MONDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THIS
OFFICE OR TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.