Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS El Paso, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
426 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAVY RAIN IS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS ABUNDANT
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF FAR WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND AND THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE LESS
CHANCES FOR RAIN. TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS MORNING. ONE IS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE...RAIN AREA IS LIMITED AND QUICKLY MOVING NORTH
AND SHOULD NOT POSE A FLOODING THREAT TO OTERO COUNTY. OF GREATER
CONCERN IS THE CONVECTIVE MASS MOVING NORTH OUT OF MEXICO INTO
LUNA AND DONA ANA COUNTIES. THIS AREA...THOUGH MOVING AT AROUND
20 KNOTS...COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS
IN LUNA COUNTY SO A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CURRENTLY COVERS THAT
AREA. THE REST OF US HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THERE CONTINUES
A LIKELY HOOD OF FLOODING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA TODAY. LOCATIONS
AROUND T OR C SAW SOME FLOODING YESTERDAY AND A BIG AREA OF THE
CWA SAW SOME NICE RAINFALL TOTALS...SO A LOT OF THE SOIL
CONDITIONS ARE PRETTY SATURATED. WITH THE SATURATED SOILS AND
MORE HEAVY POSSIBLE TODAY I WENT AHEAD AN ISSUED THE WATCH
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THE RAIN THREAT WILL SHIFT
A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM MOVE THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME TO THE ARIZONA/NEW
MEXICO STATE LINE...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND NAM KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE MODELS HAD THE UPPER HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...BUT THE CURRENT BATCH OF RUNS HAS THE
HIGH SLOWLY BUILDING INTO WEST TEXAS...SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
A RAIN THREAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. QUICKLY LOOKING AT NEXT
WEEK...THE GFS DOES WEAKLY BUILD THE RIDGE ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...BUT WITH ALL THE MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH IT THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. BY THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK THE GFS IS INDICATING THAT A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL PUSH THE RIDGE BACK TO OUR EAST AND SWING THE MOISTURE
PLUME BACK OVER NEW MEXICO...SO WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH ALL THE
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WELL SEE HIGHS ONLY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...10/12Z-11/12Z
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT
LOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK. TODAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAIN...MAINLY ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL DRY A
LITTLE...BUT STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN EACH DAY...WHILE
LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN.
THE RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 83  69  88  71  94 /  60  60  40  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA TX        78  63  85  64  91 /  60  50  30  20  20
LAS CRUCES              83  66  87  68  94 /  60  60  40  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              81  63  84  64  89 /  70  60  40  30  20
CLOUDCROFT              59  48  68  50  72 /  70  60  50  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   81  63  87  64  95 /  70  60  40  30  20
SILVER CITY             73  58  81  59  89 /  70  60  50  40  30
DEMING                  83  64  87  65  95 /  70  60  40  30  20
LORDSBURG               82  65  88  66  95 /  70  60  40  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR NMZ022>025-030>032.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ055-056.

&&

BRICE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1100 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2008

NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-111800-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
1100 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
FLOODING LIKELY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT AND WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT. ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY
BECOME FULL OF WATER. DRAINAGES AND ARROYOS MAY BE FULL WITH FAST
MOVING WATER FROM RAIN RUNOFF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MOIST CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS TO
SHIFT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE BUT DEEP MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER ALL AREAS. SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM SOME STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY OBSERVED HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THIS OFFICE
OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

BIRD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX
730 AM MDT TUE JUL 10 2008

TXZ055-100300-
EL PASO TX
730 AM MDT TUE JUL 10 2008

HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS HAS CAUSED A LOT OF
RUNOFF TO FLOW INTO THE RIO GRANDE.  THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY RISE DURING THE DAY TODAY...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE (8.5 FEET).  THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO RISE
TO AROUND 7.9 FEET LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIO GRANDE RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (FEET):
             FLD   OBS      DAILY FORECASTS AT 7 AM (FT)
LOCATION     STG   STG    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
EL PASO      8.5   6.4    7.7    7.7    7.5    7.3    7.2

BELOW ARE THE LATEST RIO GRANDE RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS (METERS):
             FLD   OBS      DAILY FORECASTS AT 7 AM (M)
LOCATION     STG   STG    FRI    SAT    SUN    MON    TUE
EL PASO      2.6   1.9    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.2    2.2