Small Craft Advisory for Winds 69, NWS Eureka, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
238 AM PST SUN NOV 2 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA ON MONDAY..WITH SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER NW CA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. THE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY AS THE
WAVE MOVES EAST...BUT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. EXPECT
AROUND 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES NORTH OF WILLITS AND AROUND 3/4 INCH SOUTH
OF WILLITS. OROGRAPHIC FAVORED AREAS LIKE THE KING AND SOUTH
FORK MOUNTAIN RANGES MAY SEE UP TO 2 INCHES. MODELED CONVECTIVE
INDICES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AS THAT IS WHERE SREF SHOWS
THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR NEGATIVE LIS.

COLDER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH GFS MODELED 700MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR -11 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
MODELED 1000MB-500MB THICKNESSES OF 535 DAMS SUGGEST INTERIOR SNOW
LEVELS MAY LOWER TO NEAR 3500 FT. THE SHOWERS WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
TUESDAY SO ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR 3500
FEET...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. TH

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...TUESDAY NIGHT
MARKS BEGINNING OF UPPER PATTERN CHANGE AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES
INCREASE AND RETURN FLOW SENDS A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH NW CA
LATE TUE INTO WED. THIS BRINGS LIGHT STRATI-FORM RAIN AND RISING
SNOW LEVELS TO NW CA WEDNESDAY. FURTHER RIDGING LIFTS MOST PCPN
NORTH OF AREA THU AND FRI WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY AS A SHORT
WAVE AND GENERAL TROUGHING DEVELOP OFFSHORE. MC

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WAS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST LATER THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING STABILITY AND WARMING ALOFT
BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LESS INTENSE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND A
DECREASE IN COVERAGE. CIGS AND VSBY REMAIN VFR EXPECT IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS WHERE CIGS AND VSBY HAVE FALLEN MOSTLY INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER...RAIN AND MVFR CONDS ON MONDAY. DJB

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING 11 TO 13 FT WITH PERIODS OF 11-12
SECONDS. BASED ON STEEPNESS...13 FT AT 11 SECONDS PUTS US RIGHT ON
THE LINE FOR A HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE
WARNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF ANYTHING THE ENP LOOKED TO BE A
FOOT OR TWO ON THE HIGH SIDE. NEXT WIND MAKER WILL ARRIVE LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM12 HAVE SOLID 20-30 KTS
DEVELOPING BY 18Z MONDAY. SOLUTIONS WERE CONSISTENT ON DRIVING THE
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF
INCREASE IN NW WINDS AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND. DJB

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM PT ST
GEORGE TO PT ARENA 0-60NM.

&&

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