Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 020630
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
127 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

KSC091-103-121-209-MOC165-020700-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080502T0700Z/
LEAVENWORTH KS-WYANDOTTE KS-JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-PLATTE MO-
127 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI AND 
JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...WYANDOTTE AND 
LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY
IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 119 AM CDT...70 MPH WINDS WERE MEASURED AT THE LAWRENCE 
AIRPORT...WITH NUMEROUS OTHER REPORTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS ACROSS 
DOUGLAS AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER 
RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF 
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OF 70 TO 80 MPH. THESE STORMS 
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES WEST OF TONGANOXIE 
TO GARDNER TO PARKER...MOVING RACING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LENEXA...BONNER SPRINGS AND BASEHOR BY 135 AM CDT.
  OVERLAND PARK...EDWARDSVILLE...LOUISBURG AND LAKE QUIVIRA BY 140 AM
  CDT.
  LANSING...SHAWNEE...WESTWOOD AND PRAIRIE VILLAGE BY 145 AM CDT.
  KANSAS CITY KANSAS BY 150 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF JARBALO...NEW LANCASTER...CHILES...BUCYRUS...ZARAH...
MONTICELLO...LACKMANS...JOHNSON CO ARPT...PIPER AND LAKE OF THE
FOREST ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3922 9478 3914 9461 3845 9464 3841 9505
      3896 9506 3896 9520 3940 9517 3940 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 242DEG 50KT 3912 9515 3886 9487
          3840 9486

$$

BOOKBINDER

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 020635
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
133 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

KSC091-103-121-209-MOC165-020700-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080502T0700Z/
LEAVENWORTH KS-WYANDOTTE KS-JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-PLATTE MO-
133 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI AND 
JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...WYANDOTTE AND 
LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY
IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

AT 128 AM...65 MPH WINDS WERE REPORTED IN TONGANOXIE. AT 130 AM 
CDT...60 MPH WINDS WERE REPORTED IN GARDNER. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF 60 
TO 70 MPH WIND WERE BEING RECEIVED...INCLUDING A MEASURED 70 MPH 
GUST AT LAWRENCE AIRPORT. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. 
PERSONS TRAVELING ALONG INTERSTATE 70 ALONG AND WEST OF THE DOWNTOWN 
AREA TOWARD LAWRENCE SHOULD SEEK SAFETY IMMEDIATELY. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A 
SEVERE SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE WINDS 
OF 70 TO 80 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING 
FROM TONGANOXIE TO GARDNER TO PARKER...MOVING RACING NORTHEAST AT 60 
MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LENEXA...BONNER SPRINGS AND BASEHOR BY 135 AM CDT.
  OVERLAND PARK...EDWARDSVILLE...LOUISBURG AND LAKE QUIVIRA BY 140 AM
  CDT.
  LANSING...SHAWNEE...WESTWOOD AND PRAIRIE VILLAGE BY 145 AM CDT.
  KANSAS CITY KANSAS BY 150 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF JARBALO...NEW LANCASTER...CHILES...BUCYRUS...ZARAH...
MONTICELLO...LACKMANS...JOHNSON CO ARPT...PIPER AND LAKE OF THE
FOREST ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND
SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE
OVERTURNED. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3922 9478 3914 9461 3845 9464 3841 9505
      3896 9506 3896 9520 3940 9517 3940 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 0627Z 242DEG 50KT 3912 9515 3886 9487
          3840 9486

$$

BOOKBINDER

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 020647
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
146 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

KSC091-103-121-209-MOC165-020700-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080502T0700Z/
LEAVENWORTH KS-WYANDOTTE KS-JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-PLATTE MO-
146 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
MIAMI AND EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND
WYANDOTTE AND NORTHEASTERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
KANSAS...AND SOUTHERN PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI UNTIL
200 AM CDT...

AT 141 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONTINUE TO OBSERVE A 
SEVERE SQUALL LINE RACING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE KANSAS CITY 
METROPOLITAN AREA. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 75 MPH 
HAVE BEEN RECEIVED IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED 
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM BASEHOR TO LEAWOOD TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF 
LOUISBURG...RACING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE 
EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY 
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. MOVE 
IMMEDIATELY TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3922 9478 3914 9461 3852 9464 3851 9484
      3894 9479 3929 9510 3940 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 0646Z 242DEG 50KT 3921 9482 3895 9455
          3857 9462

$$

BOOKBINDER

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 020659
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
159 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

KSC091-103-121-209-MOC165-020709-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-080502T0700Z/
LEAVENWORTH KS-WYANDOTTE KS-JOHNSON KS-MIAMI KS-PLATTE MO-
159 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MIAMI AND EASTERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WYANDOTTE AND
NORTHEASTERN LEAVENWORTH COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND SOUTHERN
PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL EXPIRE AT 200 AM CDT...

AT 150 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE ACCELERATED INTO 
CLAY...JACKSON AND CASS COUNTIES. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3922 9478 3914 9461 3852 9464 3851 9484
      3894 9479 3929 9510 3940 9496
TIME...MOT...LOC 0659Z 242DEG 50KT 3927 9458 3900 9432
          3862 9440

$$

BOOKBINDER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION HAS TEMPORARILY UNDERGONE A FAIRLY RAPID DOWNTURN IN
INTENSITY AS OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND
CREATED A MESO WARM FRONT ARCING FROM RANDOLPH COUNTY TO LINN AND
ANDERSON COUNTIES IN KANSAS...EFFECTIVELY UNDERCUTTING UPDRAFT
COLUMNS WITH MORE STABILIZED RAIN COOLED AIR. IN ADDITION...STORMS
PROPAGATING ACROSS NERN MISSOURI ARE BEGINNING TO OUTRUN THE
INSTABILITY AXIS AND SUPPORTIVE SHEAR...LEADING TO MORE PULSING
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...RAPID UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH NOW OCCURRING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT (WHICH HAS OVERTAKEN THE DRYLINE) IN AN AREA OF
EXTREME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL MOTION.
MLCAPES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT REMAIN 1500-2000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50 KT ADVECTING ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. WARM
SECTOR IS CURRENTLY BEING REINVIGORATED BY A H8 40-50KT LLJ WITH
+13C DEWPOINTS...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT THE MESO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NWD WITH TIME. THE QUICKLY DEVELOPING LINEAR CONVECTION
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IN RELATION TO
THE MIDLEVEL LOW CENTER PUNCHING EWD. ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINE WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEAST...AND ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE LINE...LOW LEVEL SHEAR (0-1 KM
SRH 200-300 M2/S2 AND 0-3KM SRH 300-400 M2/S2) WOULD SUPPORT
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR AND QLCS STRUCTURE WITH POSSIBLE BOW HEAD OR
INFLOW NOTCH TORNADOES...AS ALREADY HAS BEEN OBSERVED FROM KICT
RADAR. INITIAL NRN MORE ISOLATED SUPERCELL ACROSS FAR NERN KANSAS
MAINLY A HAIL THREAT...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LINEAR FEATURE
ENTERING ERN KANSAS CWA COUNTIES BETWEEN 1 AM AND 130 AM.

21

...PREVIOUS UPDATE...
/510 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2008/
WATCHING POTENTIAL OF STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
MOISTURE AXIS THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST ALONG KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER. 21Z TOPEKA SOUNDING
WHICH WAS WEST OF THIS AXIS...SHOWING CAPPING HAS GREATLY ERODED
JUST WEST OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING
TOWERING CU DEVELOPING ALONG WITH WESTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE
AXIS...WHERE CAP IS WEAKENING. IMPRESSIVE SURFACE HEATING HAS
OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
AND LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...WHICH
WOULD POINT TO STRONG UP DRAFTS IS STORMS CAN DEVELOP. LIMITING
FACTOR REMAINS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL
STRUGGLING IN THE LOWER 60S UP INTO WESTERN AREAS. STILL GOOD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT INDIVIDUAL STORMS...AND WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40
KT RANGE...WOULD BE GOOD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FOR WARNING PURPOSES...WITH FREEZING LEVELS RUNNING IN THE 11-12K FT
RANGE...WOULD EXPECT ONE INCH HAIL WITH 50 DBZ TO 30K FT AND 60 DBZ
IN THE 25K FT RANGE.  VILS AROUND 50 WOULD ALSO POINT TO 1 INCH
HAIL.

DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...MAY SEE DRY LINE RETREATING BACK
TOWARD THE COLD FRONT AND A SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY DEEPENING
IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS BY 03Z. AS THE UPPER LOW EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT...ITS ADDED DYNAMICS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT...WITH MORE HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

PC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/419 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2008/
MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT
AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW NOW CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS HAVE
RECOVERED SOME TODAY...WITH SCATTERED READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. WINDS WERE RATHER STRONG
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER 30 MPH RANGE...BUT HAVE
REMAINED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THEREFORE...HAVE CANCELLED THE
WIND ADVISORY.

A SUBSTANTIAL CAP HAS KEPT CONVECTION FROM INITIATING THUS FAR.
MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE CAP IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON...AND
MAY BE BROKEN THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT. HAVE
BEEN WATCHING THE DRYLINE PUSH EAST TODAY...AND APPEARS TO HAVE
REACHED RIGHT TO THE MISSOURI BORDER WITH NEBRASKA...SOUTH TO
EMPORIA AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THE EDGE OF THE SURFACE
MOIST AXIS/PSEUDO DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER EAST
THIS EVENING. THE RUC FORECAST MODEL INDICATES THE DRYLINE MAY REACH
A CLARINDA TO KANSAS CITY LINE BEFORE RETROGRADING SOME AFTER 00Z.
THIS SOLUTION MAY BE REASONABLE...AS THE PUSH OF THE UPPER JET MAX
WITH THE MAIN PART OF THE UPPER LOW MAY WHAT IS NEEDED LATER
TONIGHT. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE FASTER OF THE SOLUTIONS TODAY WITH THE
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE PROGRESSION...WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN ON THE
SLOWER END. THE SREF AND RUC HAVE BEEN MORE IN THE MIDDLE. THE
LATEST 18Z NAM LOOKS MORE REASONABLE THAN ITS FASTER 12Z
COUNTERPART. STILL NOT SURE THAT ANY ONE MODEL IS FAR SUPERIOR TODAY.

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE TONIGHT...WHILE A SECOND SURFACE LOW STARTS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE PANHANDLE REGION. THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL PUSH SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE LATER TONIGHT.

AS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AM SEEING SOME SIGNS OF BETTER
VERTICAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT NOW ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS IN SOUTHEAST
KANSAS. EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE FIRST IN THIS
AREA WHERE THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE BROKEN BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA...FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH
AND EAST INTO WESTERN MISSOURI FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. SUPERCELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS THEN EXPECTED TO
EVOLVE MORE INTO A LINE OF STORMS AS THE FRONT STARTS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS WITH THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...BUT THERE IS ALSO AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH RATHER SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...SO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THERE ARE SOME
CONCERNS THAT WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FEATURES THAT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS COULD EXCEED ONE INCH MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI...EVEN THOUGH INDIVIDUAL STORMS SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY.
HEADWATER GUIDANCE IS JUST LESS THAN AN INCH AND A HALF IN THAT
AREA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP ALERT IF DURATION OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
BE LONG ENOUGH THAT WE MIGHT HAVE FLOODING CONCERNS.

NOT MANY CHANGES MADE FOR THE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN AND SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM.

STOFLET

LONG RANGE (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

EARLY PART OF EXTENDED APPEARS RATHER TRANQUIL AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS. RIDGING EXPECTED TO HOLD AT
LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH SPLIT FLOW KEEPING SOUTHERN STREAM
QUASI-CUTOFF LOW ANCHORED OVER BAJA. NAEFS PESSIMISTIC IN LIFTING
LOW TOO QUICKLY WITH THE BULK OF THE MEMBERS DEPICTING UPPER LOW
REMAINING OVER BAJA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THOUGH OPERATIONAL GFS
STARTS LIFTING SYSTEM INTO PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 00Z EC SIMILAR
IN TIMING WITH 12Z GFS...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH VARIANCE IN
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO QUESTION BOTH MODELS SOLUTIONS.  GIVEN
EXPECTED SLOWER MOVEMENT OF POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER...BACKED OFF ON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME
PERIOD...BUT MAINTAINED LOW CHANCES POPS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE EVENTUAL SYSTEM THAT DOES EJECT INTO PLAINS WILL BE RATHER
POTENT...BUT MIXED SIGNALS ON WHETHER IT WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN OR
SEVERE THREAT GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN UPPER LOW TRACK.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...SURFACE RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC WITH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY...HOWEVER STRONGER INSOLATION SHOULD HELP TO
MODIFIED COOLER AIRMASS THAT LINGERS WITH SURFACE HIGH. BY
TUESDAY...EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMBED BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY...THOUGH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
LIMIT THE EXTEND OF WARM-UP.  OVERALL..USED A BLEND OF GRIDDED MOS
AND ECMWF SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR TEMPERATURE TRENDS. DEPENDING ON
MODE OF PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION ON THURSDAY...MAY NEED TO LOWER
TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY.

24

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...IMMEDIATE THREAT IS TIMING OF SQUALL LINE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS. LOCAL ARW WRF HANDLING CONVECTION FAIRLY
WELL...WITH NORTHERN END OF LINE MOVING INTO THE KSTJ AND KMCI TAFS
BETWEEN 0630-0700 UTC AND INTO THE KMKC TAF BETWEEN 07 AND 08 UTC.
THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE LINE LIKELY WILL PASS SOUTH OF KMCI AND
KSTJ...WITH KMKC EXPERIENCING STRONGER PORTION OF LINE. BASED ON
CIGS ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS...LOWERED CIGS INTO MVFR RANGE AS A
RESULT OF +TSRA AND ADDED GUSTS UP TO 45KT...THOUGH WOULD  NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE GREATER THAN 50KTS. AFTER LINE CLEARS...AM A LITTLE
MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH CIG RECOVERY COUNTER TO MET AND MAV GUIDANCE
WHICH KEEP MVFR CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING. BEYOND 15
UTC...THE ONLY FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 30KTS.

24

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
104 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-021815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
104 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TOWARDS 6 PM IN THE VICINITY OF A DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
MARYVILLE...TO SAINT JOSEPH...THEN SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS WEST
OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA. IF THESE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY WILL
HAVE TO POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING HAIL...WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES AS THEY MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THEN DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...THE FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT MORE
TOWARD DEVELOPMENT ON A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SITUATED FROM
SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. INITIALLY THE STRONGER
STORMS WOULD DEVELOP ON THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...BUT WOULD BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE FRONT INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS WOULD ALSO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...AND MAY ALSO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IF IT FALLS ACROSS THE RIVERS THAT HAVE
EXPERIENCED RECENT FLOODING.

ALL OF THIS WILL HINGE ON THE POSITION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS AND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARIES TONIGHT. EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND OTHER INTERESTED
PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECAST DISCUSSION PRODUCTS AND
OUTLOOKS AS THIS SITUATION EVOLVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE FRONT MAKES IT
TONIGHT...CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FRONT SHOULD
SWING EAST OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING RAINS.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.  THOUGH THE THREAT WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THE BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR IN THE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.  AT THIS TIME...THERE REMAINS SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...WHICH WILL
DICTATE WHETHER THE HEAVY RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING IN NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. AND DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI.

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1023 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     HAIL             1 W WINSTON             39.87N 94.16W
05/01/2008  E1.00 INCH       DAVIESS            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            I-35 AND 69 HIGHWAY AT EXIT 61...WINSTON TRUCK STOP.

&&

MSINGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

MOZ025-020400-
MACON-
1033 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHWESTERN MACON COUNTY UNTIL 1100
PM CDT...

AT 1029 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BUCKLIN...OR 12 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MARCELINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LA PLATA BY 1100 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF NEW CAMBRIA...ETHEL...ELMER AND SOUTH GIFFORD ARE ALSO
IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1040 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1039 PM     HAIL             ETHEL                   39.89N 92.74W
05/01/2008  M0.25 INCH       MACON              MO   PUBLIC

&&

GAMIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1055 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

MOZ017-025-020430-
ADAIR-MACON-
1055 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN ADAIR AND NORTHERN MACON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1049 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM KIRKSVILLE TO 7
MILES NORTH OF CALLAO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  LA PLATA BY 1105 PM CDT.
  ATLANTA BY 1110 PM CDT.
  BRASHEAR BY 1120 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF ELMER...MILLARD...KIRKSVILLE REGIONAL ARPT AND GIBBS ARE
ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH A BRIEF DOWNPOUR AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 PM CDT THU MAY 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HAIL             BLUE MOUND              38.09N 95.01W
05/01/2008  E1.00 INCH       LINN               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MSINGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1213 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

KSZ102-MOZ011-020545-
DONIPHAN-HOLT-
1213 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHWESTERN DONIPHAN AND SOUTHERN
HOLT COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

AT 1212 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF HIGHLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHLAND BY 1230 AM CDT.
  WHITE CLOUD BY 1240 AM CDT.
  FOREST CITY AND OREGON BY 1245 AM CDT.

THE TOWN OF IOWA POINT IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DEROCHE