Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 080733
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
133 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MOC083-159-080800-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080108T0800Z/
HENRY MO-PETTIS MO-
133 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PETTIS AND NORTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM CST...

AT 128 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF WINDSOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GREEN RIDGE BY 155 AM CST.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST
TUESDAY MORNING FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3849 9364 3856 9355 3855 9352 3858 9351
      3867 9338 3852 9328 3851 9352 3839 9352
TIME...MOT...LOC 0733Z 222DEG 26KT 3848 9349

$$

NRR

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 080742
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
142 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MOC083-080752-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080108T0800Z/
HENRY MO-
142 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 137 AM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA 
AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST
TUESDAY MORNING FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3851 9351 3854 9352 3858 9351 3867 9338
      3852 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 0742Z 222DEG 29KT 3858 9345

$$

MOC159-080800-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080108T0800Z/
PETTIS MO-
142 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
PETTIS COUNTY UNTIL 200 AM CST...

AT 137 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR WINDSOR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GREEN RIDGE BY 150 AM CST.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST
TUESDAY MORNING FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3851 9351 3854 9352 3858 9351 3867 9338
      3852 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 0742Z 222DEG 29KT 3858 9345

$$

NRR

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 080756
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
156 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

MOC159-080806-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-080108T0800Z/
PETTIS MO-
156 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 200 AM CST...

AT 151 AM CST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST
TUESDAY MORNING FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3851 9351 3854 9352 3858 9351 3867 9338
      3852 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 0756Z 222DEG 29KT 3864 9331

$$

NRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1235 AM CST TUE JAN 8 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/425 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008/
SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WITH THE SHORT TERM IS FOCUSED ON STRONG UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AT THIS TIME AND HEADING
INTO THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
TROUGH...A JET MAX TO 120 KTS HAS MOVED OFF INTO THE GREAT
LAKES...PUTTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET. THIS...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING HELPED TO SET OFF INITIAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EFFECTS OF THIS JET SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THEN WILL BE SEEING THE MAIN TROUGH
DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE OVER OKLAHOMA BY MIDNIGHT. THAT WAVE WILL BE
RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A GOOD PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA...WITH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI THE LEAST LIKELY AREA
TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. CONCERNS WITH THIS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS THE
POTENTIAL REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WILL NOT GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT...BUT
SOME CONCERNS IF THE NAM CAN VERIFY THAT WE COULD SEE SOME AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. ALSO WILL BE WATCHING THE COLDER AIR STARTING
TO FILTER IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS INDICATE THE
TRACK OF 850 MB LOW WILL TAKE IT FROM WEST OF KANSAS CITY AROUND 09Z
TO NEAR KIRKSVILLE BY MID MORNING. NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUPPORT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THIS LOW TRACKS BY. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS HOW LONG A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS
POINT WILL KEEP SNOWFALL TOTALS AT AN INCH OR LESS...WITH SOME
MELTING EXPECTED AS THIS SNOW FIRST HITS THE RELATIVELY WARM
GROUND...AND THE IDEA IT WILL BE A WET SNOW THAT SHOULD PACK DOWN
PRETTY WELL.

THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST WILL BE APPROACHING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
FOR THURSDAY. TIMING BETWEEN THE MODELS IS NOT IN GREAT CONSENSUS.
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SNOW
INTO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM
MODELS.

PC

MEDIUM RANGE (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...

STRAPPED FOR TIME THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING CONVECTION SO WILL
KEEP THE MEDIUM RANGE BRIEF. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THURSDAY AND
END OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEMS. GFS APPEARS TO BE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF
THE MODELS PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD QPF AS OPPOSED TO THE EUROPEAN.
HAVE THEREFORE WENT WITH A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE WITH
INFLUENCE FROM HPC. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AND PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. FAIRLY FAST MOVING SYSTEM AND REMAINED MODEST WITH
POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. POINT FORECAST AND BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS AND
HAVE INDICATED THIS ACCORDINGLY.

NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA BY THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. STILL A WAYS OUT FOR THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY INDICATED
SLIGHT CHC POPS ATTM. NEVERTHELESS...ANY PRECIP THAT DOES FALL LOOKS
TO REMAIN FROZEN ATTM AS INDICATED BY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN.
OTHERWISE...NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAF AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
MKC AND MCI STARTING AROUND 07Z AT MKC AND 08Z AT MCI. ARRIVAL  OF
RAIN SHOULD BE DELAYED AT STJ UNTIL 09Z. RISK OF THUNDER AT STJ IS
MINIMAL. CEILINGS WILL START OUT AT VFR BUT AS COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS WITH STRONGER CELLS. AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO
MIX WITH SNOW AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO A WET SNOW BY LATE
MORNING AT STJ AND IN THE AFTERNOON AT MCI AND MKC. MVFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE WITH PERIODS OF VFR
CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY MID AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
104 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081915-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
104 PM CST MON JAN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AT MID AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT WILL STALL FOR A TIME AWAITING THE MAIN UPPER
STORM SYSTEM TONIGHT. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LOCATIONS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THIS FRONT MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO MACON...SOUTHWARD. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WOULD BE MORE FAVORED IN AREAS FROM PLEASANTON...TO
BUTLER...CLINTON...SEDALIA AND SOUTH OF BOONVILLE WHERE SOME CLEARING
HAS AIDED THE DESTABILIZATION. THESE STORMS MAY GROW STRONG ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THEN THIS EVENING...AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BY MID EVENING...THE SURFACE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED FROM AROUND KANSAS CITY TO MACON.
THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RUNNING FROM CENTERVILLE KANSAS TO HARRISONVILLE...HIGGINSVILLE...
SWEET SPRINGS AND MOBERLY...SOUTHWARD. AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT.

AS A WAVE ON THE SURFACE FRONT RIDES TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING...IT SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. HEAVY RAIN
MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THIS WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...SO LOCATIONS FROM
SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY SEE SOME MINOR
FLOODING IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE EXITING STORM SYSTEM MAY CHANGE ANY
LINGERING RAIN OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH MAY OCCUR
IN AREAS FROM AROUND KANSAS CITY INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

THE NEXT STORMS SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE. THE BETTER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE OCCURRING
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CENTERVILLE KANSAS TO HIGGINSVILLE AND
MOBERLY MISSOURI.

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
824 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             FAYETTE                 39.15N 92.69W
01/07/2008  E1.00 INCH       HOWARD             MO   PUBLIC

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
838 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     HAIL             PECULIAR                38.72N 94.46W
01/07/2008  E1.00 INCH       CASS               MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SFORTIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
852 PM CST MON JAN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HAIL             4 NW CHILHOWEE          38.63N 93.91W
01/07/2008  E1.25 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SFORTIN