Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 081005
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
505 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

KSC091-081030-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0248.000000T0000Z-080908T1030Z/
JOHNSON KS-
505 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN
JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

AT 500 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF GARDNER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DE SOTO AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF OLATHE BY 525 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
CLEARVIEW CITY...MONTICELLO AND ZARAH.

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IF YOU ARE IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3882 9474 3878 9495 3875 9505 3893 9505
      3900 9493 3898 9492 3902 9488 3905 9484
      3905 9482
TIME...MOT...LOC 1005Z 220DEG 17KT 3888 9501

$$

PC

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 081018
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
518 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

KSC091-081028-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0248.000000T0000Z-080908T1030Z/
JOHNSON KS-
518 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS IS CANCELLED...

AT 515 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3882 9474 3878 9495 3875 9505 3893 9505
      3900 9493 3898 9492 3902 9488 3905 9484
      3905 9482
TIME...MOT...LOC 1018Z 224DEG 17KT 3892 9493

$$

PC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
420 AM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...

COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE SHORT TERM FOCUS
IS ON A COLD FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND THE
SOUTHERN MISSOURI BORDER. OF GREATER CONCERN FOR THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA IS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEGUN
TO DEVELOP IN EARNEST...WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
PROVIDING INCREASED LIFT ACROSS THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF THE CELLS HAVE STARTED TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THUS FAR...BUT IT MAY
BE CLOSER TO 12Z BEFORE THE FOCUS OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS
TO SPREAD MORE EXPANSIVE ACTIVITY NORTH AND EAST.

PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD THEN FILL IN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...LIFT WILL
BE ENHANCED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE FEATURE THAT WILL SKIRT ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE SURFACE
FRONT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTHEAST KANSAS/NORTHERN MISSOURI
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THEIR HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY
THIS MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THEREAFTER.

AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...
AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE A NARROW WINDOW FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST
SECTION IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI BEFORE THE FRONT
CLEARS THE AREA. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
SHEAR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE
THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IT WILL BE A RACE AGAINST
ADEQUATE HEATING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES OUT IN ORDER FOR THIS
POSSIBLE SCENARIO TO UNFOLD.

AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SHOULD START TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID MENTION
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FOG TOMORROW MORNING WHERE CLEARING SKIES
ARE ANTICIPATED...GENERALLY FROM THE MISSOURI RIVER NORTHWARD. SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE MAY CONTINUE TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN LOOK TO BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL...IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALSO OFFER
VAST DIFFERENCES WITH THE EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE IKE. NEEDLESS TO
SAY...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED.

STOFLET

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...RATHER ACTIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MUCH OF THE
ACTIVE WX AFT 12Z MON AM. WRMFNT IN NRN OKLA WILL MOVE NORTH...TO
ABOUT 50-75 MILES SOUTH OF MKC MONDAY MORNING. STRONG LIFT NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY WILL INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACR THE
TERMINALS AFT 12Z. WILL NOT MENTION ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 14Z AS
CHCS LOOK TOO LOW AT THIS TIME. UNTIL THEN...VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
WITH ANY RAINFALL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE BACK SOUTH LATE
MONDAY MORNING WITH STG LIFT NORTH OF THE FRONT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
RAIN IN ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. GREATEST RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT
THE TERMINALS...ESP KSTJ...WILL BE BETWEEN 14Z-18Z WITH MORE OF A
STRATIFORM RAIN AFT 18Z. WILL CONFINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE RANGE
STATED ABOVE. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS HIGH...TIMING
WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED LATER.

EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH BRISK AND COOL NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY LEAD TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS BY LATE
MORNING. CIGS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFT 00Z TUESDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE TERMINALS.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1255 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1255 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...IN CONNECTION WITH A
MID LEVEL BOUNDARY MOVING OVER THE AREA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL NOT BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IF SUFFICIENT HEATING AND
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO KIRKSVILLE LINE.
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO
KIRKSVILLE LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NRR