Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 282333 RRA
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

MOC001-282343-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0241.000000T0000Z-080829T0000Z/
ADAIR MO-
633 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 630 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED OR MOVED OUT 
OF THE AREA AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR 
PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3994 9230 3962 9230 3966 9270 3968 9269
      3970 9271 3973 9270 3983 9263 3987 9257
      3996 9236
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 275DEG 25KT 3987 9229 3979 9231
          3970 9234 3964 9248

$$

MOC121-290000-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0241.000000T0000Z-080829T0000Z/
MACON MO-
633 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MACON COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 630 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES EAST OF ATLANTA TO 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF MACON TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MACON TO 7 MILES
SOUTH OF MACON...MOVING EAST AT 29 MPH.

THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3994 9230 3962 9230 3966 9270 3968 9269
      3970 9271 3973 9270 3983 9263 3987 9257
      3996 9236
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 275DEG 25KT 3987 9229 3979 9231
          3970 9234 3964 9248

$$

DB

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 282350
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
650 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

MOC121-290001-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0241.000000T0000Z-080829T0000Z/
MACON MO-
651 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MACON COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 700 PM CDT...

AT 649 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3994 9230 3962 9230 3966 9270 3968 9269
      3970 9271 3973 9270 3983 9263 3987 9257
      3996 9236
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 275DEG 25KT 3986 9213 3978 9215
          3969 9218 3963 9232

$$

DB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
305 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT RANGE (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MESOSCALE DISCUSSION ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE POST
FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...ALREADY OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THIS CONVECTION IS TIED MORE TO THE 700 MB LAYER...WHICH
SHOULD GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH THE 700 MB
SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AS
ELEVATED CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXIST AT THIS POINT IN THE AREA.

DUE TO THE POST FRONTAL POTENTIAL...WILL PULL CHANCE POPS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH FOR THE EVENING HOURS. WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY
CATEGORIES IN THE SOUTH TO COVER DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING IN
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. NAM SHOWING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT CONTINUING AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THE 305KT SURFACE UNTIL AFTER 09Z.

FOR FRIDAY...WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST GOING...ALTHOUGH NAM SHOWING
POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...THAT COULD BUILD AS FAR NORTH AS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS KEEPS CONVECTION FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE GOING FORECAST...BUT SOMETHING TO BE
WATCHED.

MUCH DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT ARE SHOWING UP OVER NEBRASKA AT THIS
TIME...SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE
TONIGHT...BUT BIG QUESTION ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS DRY AIR
CAN MAKE IT.  WILL FOLLOW THE NAM LEAD ON BRINGING THIS DRIER AIR
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING...SPREADING IT FURTHER TO
THE EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH PUSH TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER...AS CORE OF SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI ON FRIDAY...THEN EAST INTO ILLINOIS BY
SATURDAY MORNING.

FOR TEMPERATURES...GIVEN READINGS THAT ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TODAY...WILL GO SLIGHTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS ON FRIDAY. THEN WITH AN EXPECTED COOL START SATURDAY MORNING
AND STILL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...WILL ALSO GO SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY.

PC

MEDIUM RANGE (SUN-THU)...

CONTINUITY RULES THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AS SFC RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A STRONG
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  HAVE MADE ONLY
SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS...AS H850 TEMPERATURES
AROUND 20C WITH COINCIDING MIXING LEVELS SHOULD PRODUCE READINGS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPR 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE /TUE-THU/ SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE
GUSTAV.  THE ECMWF...WHILE MAYBE NOT THE PERFECT SOLUTION...STILL
HAS A BETTER GRIP ON GUSTAV AND THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS ON THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS.  FEEL THAT NEXT UPR TROUGH CROSSING THE
ROCKIES MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WILL SLOW SOMEWHAT...PUSHING A SFC COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEN THE REAL QUESTIONS BEGIN
WITH HOW GUSTAV WILL TRACK ONCE IT ARRIVES ONTO THE MAINLAND.  THE
ECMWF IS DRIVING THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR WEST...WHILE THE GFS APPEARS TO
SHEAR OUT THE DISTURBANCE WHICH IS A SOLUTION THAT IS COMPLETELY
DISREGARDED AT THIS POINT.  REGARDLESS...HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
APPEARS TO ARRIVE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME...THUS
HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THIS TIME PERIOD.  DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...THIS FRONT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE CWA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK PROVIDING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED PRECIP
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

DUX

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

/1152 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
SHORTWAVE IN ERN IA CONTINUED TO PROGRESS EAST WITH 2-3MB PRESSURE
RISES IN ERN NEB/WRN IA DRIVING THE COLD FRONT IN XTRM NWRN MO SE AT
10-20 MPH. MORNING UPPER AIR DEPICTS MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES
BETWEEN 700-500MB WITH THE SC/ACCAS IN WCNTRL AND CNTRL GIVING A HINT
OF THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR THIS AFTN. PROFILERS AS WELL AS
MORNING UPPER AIR ALSO DEPICTS THAT THE STRONGEST H7-H3 WIND FIELDS
WILL NOT BE JUXTAPOSITION ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING
WELL NORTH INTO NEBRASKA...IOWA AND XTRM NWRN MO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE LATEST 12Z NAM IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTIVE EVENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TNGT. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT SBCAPES WILL RISE TO AROUND 3500-4000 J/KG BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST
TO A UNIONVILLE TO KCI LINE BY 21Z. AS PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS...SUFFICIENT HEATING JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
BREAK THE STRONG 800MB CAPPING INVERSION...FIRST ACROSS THE NERN CWA
AROUND 20Z...THEN WCNTRL MO BTWN 20-22Z.

WIND PROFILES WILL BE GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH SFC-3KM SHEAR VALUES NR 20KTS WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25-30
KNOTS. THE STG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH MARGINAL SFC-3KM SHEAR WILL
LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MODEST SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT BY 00Z TO
02Z WITH A SE MOVEMENT AROUND 15-25 KNOTS. INITIALLY THE CONVECTION
WILL BE SCT TO BKN DURING THE LATE AFTN HOURS.

GIVEN THE DRIER AIR UPSTREAM FROM 800 MB THROUGH 500 MB...DCAPE
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG...INCREASING THE THREAT OF STRONG
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STG INSTABILITY...LARGE
HAIL IS PSBL.

GIVEN THE PROJECTED MOVEMENT OF THE CDFNT...THE LINE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BTWN 03-06Z.

DB

&&

.AVIATION...
/1152 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2008/
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...CONCERN IS THE TIMING AND CONVECTIVE THREATS ALONG
A CDFNT MVG THROUGH XTRM NWRN MO. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KSTJ
AROUND 19Z TO 20Z...LIKELY TOO SOON TO DEVELOP ANY CONVECTION ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. WILL HOLD A MENTION OF A CB AT THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE TO THE SOUTH. FURTHER SOUTH...AT
KCI AND KMKC...THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS HIGHER AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THESE TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-23Z. THE LATER TIMING WILL ALLOW
FOR A MUCH HIGHER THREAT OF CONVECTION AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
ARE REACHED. ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS REACH NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP QUICKLY AND BECOME QUITE
STRONG...PSBLY CONTAINING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE TERMINALS. WILL FINE TUNE TIMING AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
SMALL CHC OF VFR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
330 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO A LINE FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE
FRONT STILL REMAINS UNSTABLE...AND SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI WERE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...THOUGH WERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. AS THESE STORMS MOVE SOUTH...AND ADDITIONAL
STORMS FORM ALONG AND NEAR A ST JOSEPH TO PRINCETON LINE...SEVERE
HAIL AND WIND WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WHILE PUSHING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DB/21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
532 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HAIL             5 W STEWARTSVILLE       39.75N 94.59W
08/28/2008  E0.75 INCH       DEKALB             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAMIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     HAIL             3 SW INDEPENDENCE       39.06N 94.39W
08/28/2008  M0.88 INCH       JACKSON            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            REPORTED OUTSIDE ARROWHEAD STADIUM

&&

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

MOZ037-282315-
JACKSON-
538 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

AT 536 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR RAYTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 19 MPH.

AT 536 PM CDT DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT THE TRUMAN
SPORTS COMPLEX.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
551 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TRENTON                 40.08N 93.60W
08/28/2008                   GRUNDY             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREES LIMB DOWN AND BLOCKING TRAFFIC ON MAPLE ROAD.
            ALSO TREE LIMBS DOWN ON MERRILL ROAD.

&&

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
554 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

KSZ105-MOZ037-282345-
JACKSON-JOHNSON-
554 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JOHNSON AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 551 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LENEXA TO
EDGERTON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
557 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     HAIL             KANSAS CITY             39.12N 94.55W
08/28/2008  E0.88 INCH       JACKSON            MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT STERLING AND 49TH
            STREET.

&&

GAMIS