Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..UPDATED AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 450 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2008/

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE WITH PRECIP
CHANCES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING SEVERAL IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH A SECONDARY
AREA ACROSS NE WYOMING/SE MONTANA. THESE IMPULSES WILL RIDE THE RIDGE
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AND HAVE AN IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WRT THE QPF SIGNAL DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL
UNFOLD. ALSO OF LESSER INTEREST IS A WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CENTRAL NEBRASKA CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY RE-DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND PUSH INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI/NORTHEAST KANSAS. KEPT
POPS THIS MORNING MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WITH SLIGHT CHCS TO ACCOUNT FOR PERHAPS A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
STILL UNCERTAIN WRT COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT THINKING SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS PROBABLE. OVERALL THINK THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL REMAIN
TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA AS CONVECTION PROPAGATES INTO HIGHER THETA E AIR
MASS. NEVERTHELESS...MAINTAINED CHC POPS ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

KEPT CHC POPS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AS WELL WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED WAVES EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE AREA. HOWEVER...MUCH STILL
DEPENDS ON MESOSCALE EVOLUTION BY THIS EVENING. LINGERING BOUNDARY
COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SLIGHT CHC
TO LOWER END CHC POPS SEEMS REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE
BEYOND DAY 3.

DEROCHE

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE ONLY PSBL
EXCEPTION BEING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WHEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS. MAY HAVE TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO PERIOD FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND THIS
EVENING. WILL BASE ANY AMENDMENTS ON CURRENT TRENDS.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
236 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201945-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
236 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
246 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

MOZ003-005-192015-
HARRISON-WORTH-
246 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN WORTH AND NORTHWESTERN
HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 243 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF GRANT CITY...OR 22 MILES
NORTH OF ALBANY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN WORTH AND
NORTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF ALLENDALE AND
HATFIELD.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
249 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

MOZ003>005-192015-
GENTRY-HARRISON-WORTH-
249 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN GENTRY...SOUTHEASTERN
WORTH AND WESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF ALBANY...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NEW HAMPTON BY 305 PM CDT.
  BETHANY BY 315 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF GENTRY...DENVER AND MARTINSVILLE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
253 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

MOZ013-020-021-192030-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DE KALB-
253 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHEASTERN BUCHANAN...NORTHERN
CLINTON AND SOUTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 248 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLARKSDALE...OR 10 MILES
NORTH OF GOWER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CLARKSDALE BY 300 PM CDT.
  STEWARTSVILLE BY 305 PM CDT.
  OSBORN BY 325 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF EASTON IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

MOZ007-192030-
PUTNAM-
257 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CENTRAL PUTNAM COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

AT 253 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF UNIONVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  UNIONVILLE BY 315 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF LEMONS IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

21