Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
633 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ONGOING LINE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
EAST...EXITING THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. SURFACE OBS SHOW A
MESO-HIGH DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. WITH THE H8 SOUTHWEST JET FEEDING MOISTURE ACROSS THE HIGH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
REDEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH...IN EASTERN
KANSAS...AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE EVENING HOURS WARE ON THE H8 JET WILL FOCUS
ITSELF...AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS IOWA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA...BEST DEFINED BY A COMBINATION OF WIND AND DEW
POINTS...WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE COOL DRY
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM A GENERALLY
NORTHERNLY DIRECTION THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW SEASONALLY NORMAL VALUES.

GENERAL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE AN ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE FOCUS
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK TO OUR SOUTHWEST
WITH THE HELP OF A PERSISTENT WEAK SURFACE HIGH. THIS WILL GIVE
EASTERN KANSAS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI A FEW RAIN FREE
DAYS.

NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. MID RANGE SOLUTION FROM THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH KEY ON A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO CREST THE WEST CONUS RIDGE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY THAT NIGHT. OF COURSE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN BY 12 HOURS AS TYPICAL TIMING ISSUE WILL
ABOUND WITH ANY FORECAST SHORTWAVES IN THIS PATTERN.

LEFT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY ON THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. WHAT SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST ARE VERY SMALL AND
TRANSIENT...AND WITH THE RIDGE EXPANDING EAST...CONFIDENCE IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THIS TEMPORAL RANGE IS MINIMAL. OTHERWISE...
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD RANGE ABOVE NORMAL.

CUTTER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
AND SPREAD ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS PASSING NEARBY THROUGH ABOUT 03Z AT STJ AND 04-05Z AT
MCI/MKC. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION
THAT SOME MVFR FOG FORMS AT STJ SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
107 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
107 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...THAT WAS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...HAS HELPED FUEL A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS PUSHED
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THUS FAR TODAY. THIS LINE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...BUT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE INITIAL
LINE OF STORMS...BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...ALL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...ARE ALL THAT
ARE EXPECTED.

PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR PLANS ON FATHERS DAY SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO QUICKLY MOVE
TO SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE OUTLOOK
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

CUTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
708 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             3 S ALTAMONT            39.85N 94.09W
06/15/2008  E1.75 INCH       DAVIESS            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GAMIS

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