Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
236 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON-TUESDAY)...

OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS AND EXTRAPOLATED 12Z SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS
THAT STRONG WARM SECTOR CAPPING HAS BEEN ALMOST COMPLETELY ERODED
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW FAIRLY ROBUST
DEEP CONVECTION GOING IMMEDIATELY JUST BEHIND THE ANALYZED
BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CONVECTION IS ALMOST
IMMINENT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS STRONG HEATING BETWEEN
BROKEN STRATO-CU DECK AND COLD FRONT ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE MID 80S. RICH GULF AIRMASS NOW FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 69-71F RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG.

STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STILL SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL.
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR CERTAINLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS...ALTHOUGH WEAK/ERRATIC SPEED VARIANCES
IN THE STORM CLOUD LAYER MAY LIMIT THE ABILITY FOR STORM CLUSTERS TO
ORGANIZE DESPITE THE STRONG MLCAPE EXPECTED. AS SUCH...THE DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE...BUT LESS CERTAIN. WOULD THINK THAT
ACTIVITY MAY INSTEAD FILL IN QUICKLY ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT WITH INTER-STORM SEEDING CAUSING ANY SEVERE THREAT TO BE
FAIRLY LOCALIZED.

WITH TIME...THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
SLOW DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR WITH RESPECT TO THE
BOUNDARY AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOW CLASSIC SIGNS OF A
PROLONGED TRAINING EVENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. RECENT GPSMET PLOTS
SHOW AXIS OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS NOW BETWEEN 1.70 AND 1.90 INCHES
WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS...AND PROLIFIC RAINFALL RATES COULD RESULT
OVERNIGHT WHERE PROPAGATION AND ADVECTION VECTORS ARE OFFSET. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH LOOKS KOSHER AS RAINS CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND
NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH FAR NW SECTIONS MAY NEED
TO BE TRIMMED BACK IF TRAINING EPISODE DOES EVOLVE FURTHER SOUTH.

MCS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 15-18Z ACROSS SERN 1/3 OF THE CWA
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS AND WEAKENS. TOTAL HPC
QPF OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WIDESPREAD SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER DOES NOT
LOOK UNREASONABLE.

FEW CHANGES MADE BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. DID LOWER MAX TEMPS
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW GIVEN THAT STRONG COLD POOL WILL LINGER EVEN
WELL AFTER PRECIPITATION EXITS.

BOOKBINDER

MEDIUM RANGE (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...H5 FLOW OF 50-60 KTS SHOULD BE
ARCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS HEIGHTS STEADILY
FALL. IN ADDITION...A 40-50KT SOUTHERLY LLJ SHOULD BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE MIDWEST AS PRESSURE
FALLS TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO
SURGE NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KANSAS BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. CURRENT THINKING INDICATES WAA REGIME MAY SET OFF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN ISENTROPIC ASCENT WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOCUSED FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE KEPT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD DRY FOR THE TIME THINKING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY CONGEAL INTO AN
MCS AND CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWEST MISSOURI. COLD
FRONT ARRIVES ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS BY THURSDAY AS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST HINGES ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES FROM WEDNESDAYS
ACTIVITY. SHOULD OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DISSIPATE AND ADEQUATE HEATING
IS ACHIEVED...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS...REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM EASTERN IOWA ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND
INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
AGAIN POSSIBLE.

FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY ENDING RAIN CHANCES. BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY
FOR THE TIME BEING WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY.

DEROCHE

&&

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHED LOW LEVEL
JET SHOULD KEEP FURTHER GUSTS AOB 30 KNOTS.

THREAT FOR CONVECTION AHEAD OF ADVANCING FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON...AND PRIMARILY INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
STRONG MOISTURE INFLUX IMPINGES ON THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. LOCAL IFR...EVEN BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AS TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER CELLS ONCE THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR MOZ001-
     MOZ002-MOZ003-MOZ004-MOZ005-MOZ011-MOZ012.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR MOZ006-
     MOZ007-MOZ008-MOZ013-MOZ014-MOZ015-MOZ016-MOZ020-MOZ021-
     MOZ022-MOZ023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR MOZ017-
     MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ028-MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ032-MOZ033-
     MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-
     MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR KSZ025-
     KSZ102.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM MONDAY FOR KSZ057-
     KSZ060-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-091100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
100 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM FALLS CITY NEBRASKA TO SALINA TO PRATT
 KANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
 THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE INITIAL
 THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY
 THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TOWARD 8 PM.
 LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
 THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

 WITH TIME...THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE
 MISSOURI RIVER. A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
 DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG THE
 FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS SETUP...COMBINED WITH A DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS
 IN PLACE...WILL SUPPORT REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY
 HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN
 A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS BEING TO ALIGN. AT
 THIS TIME...THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
 WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ATCHISON KANSAS TO
 KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI...WHERE WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
 INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED. LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
 CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SEVERAL DOZEN RIVERS...STREAMS AND CREEKS
 ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD ACROSS THE AREA...AND RAINFALL OF THIS
 MAGNITUDE COULD RESULT IN MAJOR RIVER FLOODING PROBLEMS FOR THE
 NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE
 ONGOING MONDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.
 STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER A WIDESPREAD
 AREA...WITH LOCALIZED TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING 4 INCHES VERY
 POSSIBLE.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK ACROSS THE
 REGION...MOST LIKELY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER
 MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS...HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY
 TO DETERMINE WHETHER AN ORGANIZED THREAT WOULD EXIST. WITH THE
 EXPECTED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING TODAY AND MONDAY...ANY
 THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WOULD LIKELY CARRY ADDITIONAL FLOODING
 CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
 THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REACH FAR NORTHWEST
 MISSOURI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND TO AN INTERSTATE 35 LINE BEFORE
 8 PM. REPORTS OF OBSERVED RAINFALL OR FLOODING WOULD BE GREATLY
 APPRECIATED TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

BOOKBINDER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
618 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

MOZ006-007-016-082345-
MERCER-PUTNAM-SULLIVAN-
618 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN MERCER...NORTHWESTERN
SULLIVAN AND PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 616 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTH OF
MERCER TO 6 MILES EAST OF PRINCETON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  UNIONVILLE BY 640 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF SOUTH LINEVILLE...NEWTOWN...LUCERNE...POWERSVILLE AND
LEMONS ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

DEROCHE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
622 PM CDT SUN JUN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HAIL             1 N PRINCETON           40.41N 93.59W
06/08/2008  E1.00 INCH       MERCER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MRD

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