River Flood Warning 86, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 403 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008/

BUSY MORNING SO WILL KEEP THIS SHORT.  CURRENT STORMS PRODUCING HAIL
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK TO THE EAST WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY
WITH MUCAPES DROPPING TO 1000 TO 1250 J/KG WITH LOW LEVEL JET
VEERING...AND SHORT WAVE TROUGH TAKING OFF TO THE NORTH ACROSS IOWA
LEAVING EFFECTIVE SHEARS 25 TO 30 KTS.  HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS
STORM PRESENTS SOME HYDRO CONCERNS AND WILL BE LOOKING AT EFFECTS ON
RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING.

COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...AND QUICKLY EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK RETURN OF THE MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN
SHUNTED TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. WILL UP POPS SLIGHTLY IN SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS
RETURN FLOW AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH.

WILL SEE AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AS A BROAD TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY WITH THE
GULF MOISTURE STREAMING IN. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY. THEN AS A STRONGER WAVE
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING....THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING INTO THE CWFA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FLOODING
CONCERNS WILL BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SATURATED
CONDITIONS ALREADY EXISTING IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PC

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAFS...COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE KC METRO AREA
WITH NORTHERLY SFC WINDS IN ITS WAKE. IN ADDITION...POST FRONTAL STRATUS
DECK OVERSPREADING THE AREA WITH LLVL SATURATION NOW IN PLACE.
THINKING LOW CLOUD DECK WILL STICK AROUND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY ERODING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT DEEPER
MIXING TAKES SHAPE.

DEROCHE

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
608 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-231115-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
608 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE ONGOING STORMS OCCURRING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WILL BE EXITING THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MISSOURI...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 13 AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AS STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP IN THAT REGION
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE MOISTURE TODAY WILL NOT VENTURE VERY FAR TO THE SOUTH...SO THAT
BY WEDNESDAY...IT WILL RETURN RATHER QUICKLY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WITH
THE ALREADY WET GROUND...THIS MAY LEAD TO MORE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY ADD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN
MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS ON
FRIDAY AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WITH STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
FORECASTS AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
737 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 AM     HAIL             KINGSVILLE              38.74N 94.07W
04/22/2008  E1.25 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

GAMIS