River Flood Warning 330, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
541 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/245 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2008/
FCST POSES FEW ISSUES INTO MUCH OF THE NEW WORK WEEK OTHER THAN
WATCHING SEVERAL POTENTIAL TEMP SWINGS. PRIMARY PATTERN HEADING INTO
THE NEW WEEK WILL BE VERY PROGRESSIVE AND ZONAL IN NATURE...AS
DOMINATE NORTHERN STREAM ACTIVITY SHIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHERN CANADA. PATTERN RECOGNITION POINTS TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.

FOR SUN AND MON...WARMING TEMPS WILL BE THE STORY AS ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS AND LOW-LVL THERMAL RIDGE PUSHES EWD.  DECENT WAA TODAY
SHOULD BUMP READINGS INTO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.  FEEL NAM/MET
GUIDANCE RUNNING TOO COLD AND MUCH TOO GENEROUS WITH THE EFFECTS OF
SNOW COVER.  THEREFORE...FOLLOWED MAV/LAV GUIDANCE WITH AREAS FROM
LEAVENWORTH TO PRINCETON RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN OTHER
AREAS DUE TO THE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL SAT EVE (IR SAT IMAGERY
DEPICTS THIS AREA WELL THIS MORNING).  STRONGER WAA WILL COMMENCE
INTO MON...AS SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  HAVE BUMPED UP MON HIGH TEMPS AS DECENT
WSW LOW-LVL FLOW PERSISTS.  FIRST CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRY TO PUSH A
WEAK FRONT INTO NORTHERN MO MON NIGHT...HOWEVER LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE THAT THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT BEFORE IT REACHES THE CWA WITH NO
ILL-EFFECTS TO THE AREA.

FOR TUE INTO WED...EXPECTING VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR MON NIGHT
INTO TUES AHEAD OF A STRONGER CLIPPER DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  LOW-LVL WAA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH BREEZY SW
SFC WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT THANKS TO STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.  BY TUE AFTN S/W
TROUGH AND STRONG SFC LOW WILL BE TRACKING ITO THE GREAT LAKES.
GIVEN THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND GENERAL TRACK OF THE UPR WAVE...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUE/WED.  HOWEVER...AM EXPECTING TWO COLD FRONTS
TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA TUE AFTN AND THEN TUE NIGHT.  FIRST COLD
FRONT WILL INDUCE WEAK SFC CAA...WITH STRONGER COLD FRONT TIED MORE
CLOSELY TO DEEPER COLD AIR SINKING SOUTH IN THE EVENING.  AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECTING A QUICK REBOUND UPWARDS WITH MID 50S IN
CENTRAL MO TO THE LOW 40S IN THE NW CORNER OF THE CWA.  DESPITE A
COLDER AIR MASS AND LIMITED MIXING ON WED...READINGS STILL MAY REACH
NORMAL LEVELS IN THE CWA WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY.

BEYOND WED...FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT FCST.  TRICKY NW
FLOW ALWAYS MAKES THINGS DIFFICULT TO TIME S/W TROUGHS INTO THE
AREA.  HOWEVER...APPEARS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH THU
AFTN INTO FRI.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-291200-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
550 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DUX