River Flood Warning 295, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
554 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
/321 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2008/
RAIN IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE ERN AND SRN CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
HEADS TOWARD CNTRL MO. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WAS SURGING INTO MUCH OF
THE CWA WITH CLEARING SKIES OVER NWRN MO. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS RAPIDLY SE WITH THE AID OF DEEP SUBSIDENCE.

MAIN CONCERN IS LATE TONIGHT WHEN WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S LATE TONIGHT IN NWRN MO...AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS...POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST FOR EXTREME NWRN MO. HAVE ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.

NICE DAY ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS BEGINS TO MODERATE. NEXT
CONCERN IS A RATHER STOUT SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN
CWA ON FRIDAY. MEAGER MOISTURE AVAILABLE HOWEVER...THEREFORE WILL
ONLY INTRODUCE SLGT CHC POPS FOR HIGH BASED SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
RAIN.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE (SAT-WED)...

QUIET WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SW H85 FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...ESTABLISHING
A MORE PRONOUNCED H85 THERMAL RIDGE OVERHEAD. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
WILL LIKELY RESULT FOR THIS WEEKEND AND HAVE RAISED TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL FLATTEN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KANSAS/MISSOURI BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BOUNDARY AS THE BULK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA. IN ADDITION...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING QUITE A BIT OF
DRY AIR IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MID LEVELS. WILL ONLY
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THE TIME BEING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
SHOWERS THAT MAY POP UP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO DIVE INTO THE PLAINS TOWARDS MIDWEEK. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY
WITHIN THE NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
RESOLVING THE EVENTUAL JET STRUCTURE AND SUBSEQUENT
STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE TROUGH. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF
ALONG WITH SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST AN INTENSIFYING
UPPER LOW TO ESTABLISH SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS 130+KT H25 JET DIVES SOUTH ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DETAILS ARE OF COURSE
DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND WILL ONLY INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHC POPS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY AS
STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...SKIES HAVE CLEARED OFF AND WILL STAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THAT AS WINDS
DECOUPLE TONIGHT STEAM FOG COULD FORM OFF THE MO RIVER AND ROLL INTO
KSTJ SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT DO NOT WANT TO
REMOVE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THIS WOULD INVITE FLIP-FLOPPING.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM THURSDAY FOR MOZ001-
     MOZ002-MOZ011.

KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1258 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161800-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
1258 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DB