River Flood Warning 179, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
548 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTN FM SRN
NE/IA SOUTH TO ERN KS AND WRN MO. TOUGH TO DISCERN PRIMARY
TRIGGER...BUT PROFILERS AS WELL AS MOISTURE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE FM SWRN IA TO NERN KS. CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...WK TO MDT
INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR HAS LED TO MARGINALLY SVR STORMS THIS
AFTN. THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO AROUND SUNSET.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS ROUNDING THE RIDGE IN ERN WY AND ERN CO. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK SE AND MAINLY AFFECT AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO TRIGGER SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE SRN CWA.

FOR THE LATER PERIODS...PESKY NW FLOW TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH LITTLE CAP IN PLACE...ANY WEAK BOUNDARY OR SHORTWAVE WILL
TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN FIND NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BUT THERE MAY BE A BOUNDARY
IN THE CWA...MOST LIKELY ALONG OR SE OF INTERSTATE 35. WILL HOLD
SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG AND SE OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG ANY BOUNDARY BECOMING QUITE WEAK. WILL
KEEP SATURDAY DRY...AS TOUGH TO FIND A TRIGGER AT THIS TIME. NEXT
SHORTWAVE MAY AFFECT THE CWA SAT NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS
LOW AT THIS TIME. WL INTRODUCE VERY LOW POPS AT THIS TIME.

DB

MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE IN A WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST. A
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS CONTINUES TO
BE A CHALLENGING PATTERN AS FAR AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH
SHORTWAVE FEATURES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE AND THEN HEADING SOUTHEAST.

THE OPERATIONAL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALL SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE MONDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO IMPACT EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE BUMPED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MOST AREAS. OTHERWISE KEPT
PRECIPITATION IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY GIVEN WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW ABLE TO
GENERATE SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER PLEASANT START TO NEXT
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST. A SLIGHT WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 80S FOR
HIGHS AND 60S FOR LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED.

STOFLET

.AVIATION...

SCT...MAINLY VFR CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE IN THE KC METRO TERMINALS
UNTIL AROUND 03Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MVFR FOG FM
11-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
WITH A LOW THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.

DB

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
236 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201945-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
236 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE DAY FRIDAY.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.

DB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
737 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

MOZ045-054-200100-
HENRY-PETTIS-
737 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN HENRY AND SOUTHWESTERN
PETTIS COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 735 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GREEN RIDGE TO
WINDSOR TO CALHOUN...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN HENRY AND
SOUTHWESTERN PETTIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF WINDSOR...
CALHOUN...GREEN RIDGE...COAL...BRANDON AND TIGHTWAD.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
747 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MALTA BEND              39.19N 93.36W
06/19/2008                   SALINE             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 65 CLOSED BETWEEN MALTA BEND AND THE INTERSECTION
            OF ROUTE N DUE TO WATER RUNNING OVER THE ROADWAY

&&

DUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
801 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KNOB NOSTER             38.77N 93.57W
06/19/2008                   JOHNSON            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY DD BETWEEN WARRENSBURG AND KNOB NOSTER AND
            HIGHWAY 23 CLOSED NEAR WHITEMAN AFB DUE TO WATER RUNNING
            OVER ROADS. NUMEROUS ROADS ALSO FLOODED IN AND AROUND THE
            CITY OF KNOB NOSTER.

&&

DUX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
811 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     HAIL             4 NE SEDALIA            38.74N 93.18W
06/19/2008  E1.00 INCH       PETTIS             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR BEAMON

&&

DUX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
811 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

MOZ001-200145-
ATCHISON-
811 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHWESTERN ATCHISON COUNTY UNTIL
845 PM CDT...

AT 808 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RIVERTON TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF HAMBURG TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF NEBRASKA
CITY TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF JOHNSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN ATCHISON
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF WATSON AND PHELPS CITY.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

21

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