Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

000 
WGUS63 KEAX 251617
FFAEAX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...MORE HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO EDGE
TOWARDS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI
TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

KSZ025-102>104-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028-029-260430-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.A.0002.080526T0000Z-080526T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-
WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-
DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-
LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...TROY...LEAVENWORTH...
KANSAS CITY KS...TARKIO...ROCKPORT...MARYVILLE...GRANT CITY...
ALBANY...STANBERRY...BETHANY...PRINCETON...UNIONVILLE...
LANCASTER...DOWNING...MOUND CITY...OREGON...SAVANNAH...CAMERON...
GALLATIN...JAMESPORT...TRENTON...MILAN...GREEN CITY...
KIRKSVILLE...ST. JOSEPH...PLATTSBURG...KINGSTON...HAMILTON...
POLO...CHILLICOTHE...BROOKFIELD...MACON...LA PLATA...PARKVILLE...
PLATTE CITY...WESTON...LIBERTY...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS
1117 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...ATCHISON KS...
  DONIPHAN...LEAVENWORTH AND WYANDOTTE. IN MISSOURI...ADAIR...
  ANDREW...ATCHISON MO...BUCHANAN...CALDWELL...CLAY...CLINTON...
  DAVIESS...DE KALB...GENTRY...GRUNDY...HARRISON...HOLT...LINN 
  MO...LIVINGSTON...MACON...MERCER...NODAWAY...PLATTE...PUTNAM...
  SCHUYLER...SULLIVAN AND WORTH.

* FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
  NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING.
  THESE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...HOWEVER COULD EASILY
  PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA FROM NORTH
  CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
  MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
  WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. IN FACT...TWO OR MORE INCHES OF
  RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN
  MISSOURI...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM TONGANOXIE AND
  LEAVENWORTH KANSAS...TO CHILLICOTHE AND MACON MISSOURI.


* THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAIN
  THE PAST THREE DAYS. ANY ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL
  QUICKLY POND OR LEAD TO RUNOFF AND THEREFORE RAPID RISES ON AREA
  CREEKS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. IF
YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA
RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR ACTION IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

31

000 
WGUS63 KEAX 252046
FFAEAX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
346 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO EDGE
TOWARDS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT THIS AFTERNOON MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A LARGE AREA OF
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

KSZ105-MOZ030>033-037>040-261000-
/O.EXA.KEAX.FF.A.0002.080526T0000Z-080526T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JOHNSON KS-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-
HOWARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...RICHMOND...
CARROLLTON...SALISBURY...KEYTESVILLE...MOBERLY...KANSAS CITY...
INDEPENDENCE...LEXINGTON...CONCORDIA...MARSHALL...FAYETTE...
NEW FRANKLIN
346 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS 
  AND MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN EAST CENTRAL 
  KANSAS...JOHNSON KS. IN MISSOURI...CARROLL...CHARITON...
  HOWARD...JACKSON...LAFAYETTE...RANDOLPH...RAY AND SALINE.

* FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
  NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING.
  THESE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...HOWEVER COULD EASILY
  PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA FROM CENTRAL
  AND WESTERN KANSAS NEAR THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
  MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
  WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. IN FACT...TWO OR MORE INCHES OF
  RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
  MISSOURI...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OLATHE
  KANSAS...TO HIGGINSVILLE AND SOUTHEAST TO BOONVILLE MISSOURI.

* THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED FROM HEAVY 
  RAIN THE PAST THREE DAYS. ANY ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL 
  WILL QUICKLY POND OR LEAD TO RUNOFF AND THEREFORE RAPID RISES 
  ON AREA CREEKS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. IF
YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA
RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR ACTION IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

KSZ025-102>104-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028-029-261000-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.A.0002.080526T0000Z-080526T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-
WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-
DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-
LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...TROY...LEAVENWORTH...
KANSAS CITY KS...TARKIO...ROCKPORT...MARYVILLE...GRANT CITY...
ALBANY...STANBERRY...BETHANY...PRINCETON...UNIONVILLE...
LANCASTER...DOWNING...MOUND CITY...OREGON...SAVANNAH...CAMERON...
GALLATIN...JAMESPORT...TRENTON...MILAN...GREEN CITY...
KIRKSVILLE...ST. JOSEPH...PLATTSBURG...KINGSTON...HAMILTON...
POLO...CHILLICOTHE...BROOKFIELD...MACON...LA PLATA...PARKVILLE...
PLATTE CITY...WESTON...LIBERTY...EXCELSIOR SPRINGS
346 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE 
  FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHEAST KANSAS...ATCHISON KS...
  DONIPHAN...LEAVENWORTH AND WYANDOTTE. IN MISSOURI...ADAIR...
  ANDREW...ATCHISON MO...BUCHANAN...CALDWELL...CLAY...CLINTON...
  DAVIESS...DE KALB...GENTRY...GRUNDY...HARRISON...HOLT...LINN 
  MO...LIVINGSTON...MACON...MERCER...NODAWAY...PLATTE...PUTNAM...
  SCHUYLER...SULLIVAN AND WORTH.

* FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
  NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING.
  THESE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE...HOWEVER COULD EASILY
  PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA FROM CENTRAL
  AND WESTERN KANSAS NEAR AND AFTER THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THESE STORMS
  WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MUCH OF
  MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...THERE
  IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
  FACT...TWO OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
  EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
  A LINE FROM OLATHE KANSAS...TO HIGGINSVILLE AND SOUTHEAST TO
  BOONVILLE MISSOURI.

* THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED FROM HEAVY 
  RAIN THE PAST THREE DAYS. ANY ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL 
  WILL QUICKLY POND OR LEAD TO RUNOFF AND THEREFORE RAPID RISES 
  ON AREA CREEKS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. IF
YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA
RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR ACTION IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

31

000 
WGUS63 KEAX 260234
FFAEAX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
934 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A LARGE AREA OF
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

KSZ025-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-261045-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080526T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-
NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-
DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-
LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...TROY...LEAVENWORTH...
KANSAS CITY KS...OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...TARKIO...ROCKPORT...
MARYVILLE...GRANT CITY...ALBANY...STANBERRY...BETHANY...
PRINCETON...UNIONVILLE...LANCASTER...DOWNING...MOUND CITY...
OREGON...SAVANNAH...CAMERON...GALLATIN...JAMESPORT...TRENTON...
MILAN...GREEN CITY...KIRKSVILLE...ST. JOSEPH...PLATTSBURG...
KINGSTON...HAMILTON...POLO...CHILLICOTHE...BROOKFIELD...MACON...
LA PLATA...PARKVILLE...PLATTE CITY...WESTON...LIBERTY...
EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...RICHMOND...CARROLLTON...SALISBURY...
KEYTESVILLE...MOBERLY...KANSAS CITY...INDEPENDENCE...LEXINGTON...
CONCORDIA...MARSHALL...FAYETTE...NEW FRANKLIN
934 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...IN KANSAS...ATCHISON KS...DONIPHAN...JOHNSON KS...
  LEAVENWORTH AND WYANDOTTE. IN MISSOURI...ADAIR...ANDREW...
  ATCHISON MO...BUCHANAN...CALDWELL...CARROLL...CHARITON...
  CLAY...CLINTON...DAVIESS...DE KALB...GENTRY...GRUNDY...
  HARRISON...HOLT...HOWARD...JACKSON...LAFAYETTE...LINN MO...
  LIVINGSTON...MACON...MERCER...NODAWAY...PLATTE...PUTNAM...
  RANDOLPH...RAY...SALINE...SCHUYLER...SULLIVAN AND WORTH.

* THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON

* SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST
  KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
  ARE SCATTERED IN NATURE...HOWEVER COULD EASILY PRODUCE LOCALLY
  HEAVY RAINFALL. A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
  EASTWARD INTO THE WATCH AREA FROM CENTRAL KANSAS AFTER THE MIDNIGHT
  HOUR. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE WATCH
  AREA THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
  AVAILABLE IN THE AREA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD
  AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL. IN FACT...TWO OR MORE INCHES OF RAINFALL
  ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
  MISSOURI...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM OLATHE
  KANSAS...TO HIGGINSVILLE AND BOONVILLE MISSOURI.

* THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OR NEARLY SATURATED FROM HEAVY 
  RAIN THE PAST THREE DAYS. ANY ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL 
  WILL QUICKLY POND OR LEAD TO RUNOFF AND THEREFORE RAPID RISES 
  ON AREA CREEKS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS. 

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. IF
YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA
RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR ACTION IF FLOODING IS
OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

$$

CUTTER

000 
WGUS63 KEAX 260928
FFAEAX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
428 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

KSZ025-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-261030-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-080526T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ATCHISON KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-
NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-
DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-
LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ATCHISON...TROY...LEAVENWORTH...
KANSAS CITY KS...OVERLAND PARK...OLATHE...TARKIO...ROCKPORT...
MARYVILLE...GRANT CITY...ALBANY...STANBERRY...BETHANY...
PRINCETON...UNIONVILLE...LANCASTER...DOWNING...MOUND CITY...
OREGON...SAVANNAH...CAMERON...GALLATIN...JAMESPORT...TRENTON...
MILAN...GREEN CITY...KIRKSVILLE...ST. JOSEPH...PLATTSBURG...
KINGSTON...HAMILTON...POLO...CHILLICOTHE...BROOKFIELD...MACON...
LA PLATA...PARKVILLE...PLATTE CITY...WESTON...LIBERTY...
EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...RICHMOND...CARROLLTON...SALISBURY...
KEYTESVILLE...MOBERLY...KANSAS CITY...INDEPENDENCE...LEXINGTON...
CONCORDIA...MARSHALL...FAYETTE...NEW FRANKLIN
428 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER RAIN AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY ONE HALF INCH OR
LESS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE INCH. THIS RAIN IS
NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

WHILE THIS ROUND OF STORMS HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION...ANOTHER
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...OR ALONG
AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS PRONE TO RAPID RISES SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$

NRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1259 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

/ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008/
DESPITE MODEST SURFACE MOISTURE RETURN THIS AFTERNOON...CLEAR SKIES
INDICATIVE OF STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS MORNINGS MCS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE REGION...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY HELPING TO FOCUS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE DRYLINE ACROSS E CENTRAL NEBRASKA. RIGHT NOW
THINK THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N/W OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...NO FORCING MECHANISMS NORTH OF IMPRESSIVE
LONG-LIVED TORNADIC SUPERCELL IN CENTRAL OK...WHICH REMAINS ANCHORED
AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE...MORNING MCS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...AND RICH GULF AIRSTREAM. REALLY DO NOT SEE ANY PROSPECTS
FOR DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING SO HAVE REMOVED MOST OF THE POPS
AND CLOUD COVER.

TOWARD/AFTER MIDNIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AS
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY POSE A MORE FORMIDABLE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...POTENTIALLY INITIATED ALONG PERSISTENT MOIST AXIS
RUNNING THROUGH ERN KS INTO SE NEB. AGAIN...PROSPECTS ARE QUITE
CONDITIONAL ON A FOCUSING MECHANISM...BUT CERTAINLY MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DEGREE OF PROGGED INSTABILITY/SHEAR COULD MAINTAIN AN ORGANIZED
MCS INTO THE CWA.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

/ISSUED 338 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008/
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS REMAIN FOCUSED ON CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MCS FROM EARLIER TODAY THREW A BIG WRENCH INTO THE
FORECAST...AS THE AREA HAS FALLEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THIS MCS HAS ALSO SHOVED ANOTHER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SE THROUGH THE CWA...THIS BOUNDARY HAS SERVED TO
REINFORCE ILL-DEFINED WARM FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE CWA AS WELL AS
SHOVE DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.  MOISTURE IS SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO RECOVER OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER IS HAVING TO TAKE THE
LONG ROAD WEST AND LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF SFC DRY LINE IN CENTRAL
KANSAS.  FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...H85 THETA-E
AXIS IS NOW LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY...A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW-LVL CLOUDS IS LIMITING
SFC HEATING...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO CLIMB ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  IN ADDITION...SFC BASED TSRA
ROOTED ALONG SFC DRYLINE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA ARE BARELY PROPAGATING
AND SPREADING A CONTINUED VEIL OF CIRRUS NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN
KANSAS AS WELL.

MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT APPEARS TO BE HEADED IN TWO
DISTINCT AREAS.  PRIMARY AREA WILL BE ALONG BETTER DEFINED DRY LINE
IN EAST CENTRAL NE NORTHWARD INTO SD...WHERE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
HAS TAKEN PLACE AND MOISTURE HAS CLIMBED INTO THE LOW 60S.  SECOND
AREA OF FOCUS WILL FURTHER SOUTH...INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA WHERE
EXTREME INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG EXISTS AND IS ABLE TO
OVERCOME MID-LVL CAP.  IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS WE ARE FINALLY
BEGINNING TO SEE THE FIRST CU DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS IN AREA OF
CLEARING AND INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE WEST OF SALINA.  BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF WE CAN CLEAR OUT AREAS TO THE EAST OF THIS LINE
TO ENHANCE THE PROBABLY OF SFC BASED CONVECTION PUSHING EASTWARD
INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MO...RIGHT NOW THIS IS DOUBTFUL.
THIS BEING SAID...MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE CONVECTION THIS EVENING
WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA AS STORMS WILL
PROPAGATE IN FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. WITH INSTABILITY VALUES
APPROACHING 2000 J/KG...AND BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 40-50
KNOTS...SUPERCELLULAR STORMS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY FORM.  LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ELEVATED NATURE OF
THE STORMS IS STILL IN QUESTION.  A TORNADIC THREAT ALSO EXISTS AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY STRETCH ALONG THE MO RIVER LATE THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST OVER THE
WESTERN CWA AND COULD ALSO PLAY AN ENHANCED ROLE IN ACTIVITY.  0-1
KM SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KNOTS ALONG WITH ENHANCED HELICITY ALONG THE
WARM FRONT COULD ENHANCE TORNADIC THREAT.  FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH...LITTLE CHANGES AS FAR AS PARAMETERS ARE CONCERNED...WITH A
FEELING THAT STORMS IF THEY FORM MAY BE A BIT MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE. STORMS SHOULD PROPAGATE TO THE NORTH NORTH EAST THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...DEPENDING ON HOW PRECIP DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...LOCATIONS
OVER NORTHERN MO COULD SEE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN.  HOWEVER LLJ AND
H85 THETA-E AXIS FOCUSES FURTHER NORTH...WITH WOULD PUSH THREAT
FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.

31

SHOULD STILL HAVE SOME ONGOING CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING HOURS
ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY HELP TO STABILIZE THINGS FOR A WHILE LATE SUNDAY
MORNING AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN CONCERN STARTS TO
FOCUS ON COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY 00Z. THIS WILL PUT THE
FORECAST AREA IN A VERY WARM AND MUGGY AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE THE
WEAKEST. BUT SUNDAY NIGHT IS OF EVEN MORE CONCERN AS STORMS THAT
FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST
MISSOURI BY LATE EVENING AND PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY AVERAGE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE...AND WITH THE VERY WET GROUND ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI FROM
LAST NIGHTS RAIN...FLOODING WILL BE A BIG CONCERN. WILL LIKELY HAVE
TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH BY TOMORROW FOR THIS EVENT.

THE CONVECTION ON SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD AID IN PUSHING THE SURFACE
FRONT INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY 12Z AND CONTINUE TO DROP IT SOUTH
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES. HOWEVER...WITH
THE UPPER FLOW ALMOST ZONAL ACROSS THE REGION THIS FRONT SHOULD HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING SOUTHWARD AS A SURFACE LOW SITS TO THE WEST OVER
WESTERN KANSAS. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
KANSAS IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE MONDAY EVENING...WITH THIS COMPLEX
ROLLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET VEERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ADDING TO OUR FLOODING WOES.

BY TUESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CANADA DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD FINALLY BRING IN A SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY AND DRIVE THE SURFACE FRONT
SOUTH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA...BRINGING A DRY SPELL FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. BY FRIDAY
MORNING...THIS RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
EJECT EASTWARD OUT OF TROUGHING SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS MAIN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
LATER ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AGAIN FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

PC

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...SURFACE WINDS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE EXPECTED. MVFR/TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS HAVE
ALREADY MOVED OVER KSTJ...AND MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY
TERMINALS WITHIN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. KEPT MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE MORNING TIMEFRAME AS THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH
THE TERMINALS. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON ARE QUITE
CONDITIONAL. AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
WILL NEED A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. INCLUDED VCTS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM 18Z-00Z AS CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW.

STOFLET
&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
729 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-251815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
729 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

 A STABLE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
 PREVENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER
 MIDNIGHT...A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT DEEP
 MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM
 DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER 1 AM. AT THIS TIME...THE COMBINATION
 OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

 DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
 OVER MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
 EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS...ANY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
 LOCALIZED FLOODING.

 SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING...IF ANY...WILL
 OCCUR ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN
 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...FOCUSED PRIMARILY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD
 OF A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THESE
 STORMS SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
 MISSOURI DURING THE EVENING HOURS...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF
 PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE
 INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FLOODING BECOMING AN INCREASING
 CONCERN.

 ON MONDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS MISSOURI AND
 EASTERN KANSAS...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK
 OF SEVERE WEATHER AND MORE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING
 FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
 TUESDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE IN
 THE DAY. WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL...WIDESPREAD FLOODING
 ON MANY AREA RIVERS WILL BECOME A BIG CONCERN.

 THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TOWARD THE FRIDAY
 SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL IF THERE
 WILL A POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS PRESENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.

BOOKBINDER/PC