Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 231311
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
811 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

MOC001-061-079-081-129-171-197-211-231500-
/O.CON.KEAX.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-080823T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-ADAIR MO-SULLIVAN MO-HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-
PUTNAM MO-SCHUYLER MO-
811 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCHUYLER...
PUTNAM...SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON...SULLIVAN...
WESTERN ADAIR...GRUNDY AND NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL 1000
AM CDT...

AT 801 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE PROLONGED RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT TWO TO THREE INCHES OF 
RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE 2 AM...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER THREE 
INCHES.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO 
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING 
INCLUDE...MILAN...TRENTON...UNIONVILLE...BROWNING...GALT...GREEN 
CITY...JAMESPORT...PRINCETON AND SPICKARD.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. 

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

IN HILLY TERRAIN...THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH
ARE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 4039 9263 4005 9285 4003 9315 4004 9335
      4001 9337 3995 9365 3995 9376 3992 9377
      3988 9389 4029 9384 4054 9344 4057 9268

$$

MAS

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 231458
FFSEAX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
958 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

MOC001-061-079-081-129-171-197-211-231513-
/O.EXP.KEAX.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-080823T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAVIESS MO-GRUNDY MO-ADAIR MO-SULLIVAN MO-HARRISON MO-MERCER MO-
PUTNAM MO-SCHUYLER MO-
958 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
SCHUYLER...PUTNAM...SOUTHEASTERN MERCER...SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON...
SULLIVAN...WESTERN ADAIR...GRUNDY AND NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS COUNTIES
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 AM CDT...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 4039 9263 4005 9285 4003 9315 4004 9335
      4001 9337 3995 9365 3995 9376 3992 9377
      3988 9389 4029 9384 4054 9344 4057 9268

$$

MAS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SLIDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINING NORTH OF MISSOURI AND KANSAS. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTION ONGOING
EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM PRINCETON TO ST JOSEPH. APPEARS MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING AS H95 WINDS OF 20-30KTS INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. LLVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO VEER DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOUR AND EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN
THIS MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RATHER POOR ACROSS THE AREA
RESULTING IN DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS MORNING. MUCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND SOMEWHAT MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
SUPPORT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ALTHOUGH PARAMETERS ARE QUITE
MARGINAL. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES...BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH DAY WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. REMAINED
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MAINTAINING CHC POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASES BY
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS MESOSCALE DETAILS WITH ONGOING AND THIS
AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY STILL TO BE PLAYED OUT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY
SAG INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSOURI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH RENEWED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...LLVL WIND FIELDS NOT PROGGED TO BE AS
CONDUCIVE AND HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND NAM INDICATING A DECENT VORT MAX TO DROP
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE/NORTH CENTRAL KS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING BY
SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS. GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE THETA E AXIS...PROGGED CORFIDI VECTORS AND MID
LEVEL WIND FLOW...THINKING ANY ACTIVITY WOULD AFFECT MAINLY THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC CATEGORY AS
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW ATTM. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE
BEYOND DAY3.

DEROCHE

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM JUST N OF CNK TO
OMA AT 23Z HAS ONLY RECENTLY SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF CUMULIFORM CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT. THE CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE MODELS...CONTINUES TO LOOK MEAGER GIVEN THE WANING
MID-UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COMMENCEMENT OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. WOULD
NOT BE ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LOW LEVEL JET COULD SPARK
SOME ELEVATED NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...BUT SPEED CONVERGENCE
EVEN HERE LOOKS MARGINAL GIVEN THE LATEST PROGS. WOULD RATHER AMEND
IF NEEDED THAN LOCK OPERATIONS INTO FUEL ALTERNATES GIVEN THE LOW
PROBABILITY.

REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING
THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT UPSTREAM PRESSURE RISES (OR
LACK THEREOF) SUGGEST THAT A LIGHT N/NE PUFF MAY BE ABOUT THE EXTENT
OF FROPA. THUS...WILL GO WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THE LATE
NIGHT/SATURDAY TIME FRAME...WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST TENDENCY.

VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...THINK THE BEST
SHOT IS PROBABLY WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL ASCENT EXPECTED DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
559 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241100-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
559 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
WHILE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAUSING MINOR FLOODING.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
MISSOURI BY LATER TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. IT IS CURRENTLY TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DEROCHE