Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Benton County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Clark County, MO, Scotland County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 AM CST MON FEB 4 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER VERY BUSY MORNING AROUND THE WEATHER OFFICE...WITH PLENTY OF
ONGOING WEATHER TO BE CONCERNED WITH...AND THE ONCOMING WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO ADD TO IT.  THIS MORNING WE HAVE A WARM FRONT
DRAPED FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO....ACROSS KANSAS AND
INTO MISSOURI.  THIS FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING SLOW NORTHWARD PROGRESS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KANSAS.  NO GREAT SURPRISE THERE AS
THE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE AS GREAT AS 4MB/3HRS ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS.  850MB BOUNDARY IS DRAPED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...FROM
NEBRASKA ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND INTO ILLINOIS. UPPER LEVELS
SHOWING A NICE VORT MAX EXITING OUT OF THE ROCKIES OVER
COLORADO...ENHANCING THE COLD CLOUD TOP THAT CAN BE OBSERVED OVER
NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...MINNESOTA...AND IOWA.  IT IS NO
WONDER THAT THERE ARE EXTENSIVE RADAR RETURNS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND INTO WESTERN IOWA...BUT THERE ARE FEW SURFACE REPORTS OF
ANYTHING MORE THAN FOG WITH THESE RETURNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WITH THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS A WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  LITTLE DOUBT FROM THE MODELS THAT THE CURRENT SWATH OF RADAR
RETURNS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SURGE THAT PASSES DIAGONALLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BE WARMING TO ABOVE FREEZING WITH THIS BAND...SO WHERE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING EXPECT AT LEAST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.  THIS EVENT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
THOUGH...AND WILL BE OVER BY 18Z.  TEMPERATURES IN MANY LOCATIONS
ARE ALREADY APPROACHING FREEZING...AND ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST CORNER
SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING BY THE TIME THE RAIN BAND MOVES IN.
THUS...HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FOR
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SIGOURNEY TO DUBUQUE.  THIS BEING
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND OF THE DAY THOUGH...WE DROP BACK TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND
TONIGHT.  ...LE...

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME WILL BE VERY INTERESTING. ALL MODELS
CURRENTLY HAVE A MODERATELY STRONG WINTER STORM PROGGED TO AFFECT
THE MIDWEST. SNOWFALL FROM SUN TO HAVE A NEGATIVE RADIATIVE IMPACT
AND KEEP A DEEPER LAYER OF COLD AIR OVER THE AREA. THIS COLD LAYER
MIGHT NUDGE THE TUE/WED SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEPER SNOW FIELD IS NOT OVERLY WIDE SO THE NEGATIVE RADIATIVE
FEEDBACK AND WAA MAY CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT. SAID SYSTEM LIKELY TO
ARRIVE JUST A BIT SLOWER THAN PROGGED BY MODELS. MODELS DO INDICATE
A SHOT OF WAA PRECIP LATE TUE MORNING/AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN
SYSTEM PRECIP TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING. IF THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN
THE VARIOUS MODELS IS CLOSE TO THE EVENTUAL TRUTH...WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL BE SEEN. THUS WILL RAISE HEADLINES FOR A
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 18Z TUE TO 18Z WED. AMOUNTS ARE STILL AN
UNKNOWN BUT WILL TRY TO GIVE A BEST GUESS IN THE WSW. GIVEN WHAT IS
CURRENTLY INDICATED ON WV IMAGERY...THIS SYSTEM MIGHT BE A BIT
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
MAIN ENERGY IS JUST COMING ON SHORE. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL BE
QUITE INTERESTING AND LIKELY WETTER. ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO
COOL DOWN MAX TEMPS TUE-WED GIVEN NEW AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL.

MADE NO CHANGES TO THURSDAY ON. MODELS INDICATE YET ANOTHER SYSTEM
IN THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING
MORE SNOW. OVERALL DYNAMIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE CLIPPER SYSTEMS FURTHER OUT.    ...08...
&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINATELY IFR OR LIFR THROUGH PERIOD WITH VSBYS 3 MILE OR LESS
IN FOG AND CIGS 1000 FEET OR LESS.  KCID AND KDBQ AT RISK OF
FREEZING RAIN UNTIL 18Z THIS MORNING WITH ICING OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE.  SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING IF ENOUGH DRY AIR CAN BE DRAWN INTO
SYSTEM...BUT CANNOT COUNT ON THIS.  ...LE...

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-
     WASHINGTON.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO
     DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

LE/08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
500 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-041100-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
500 AM CST SUN FEB 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DENSE FREEZING FOG WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID MORNING SOUTH OF AN
OSKALOOSA IOWA TO GALESBURG ILLINOIS LINE. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE LIKELY ON EXPOSED SURFACES.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AND BECOME MIXED WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
A LIGHT COATING OF ICE. THE PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN
OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A STRONG AND COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET MONDAY MORNING. RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEMS
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. INTERESTED INDIVIDUALS SHOULD
MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR UPDATES CONCERNING THIS
STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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