Wind Chill Advisory 4, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Lee County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Clark County, MO, Scotland County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A SHARP
COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING...CAUSING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP AT LEAST 30 DEGREES BEHIND IT.  BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT WE ARE BEING HAMMERED WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINING AROUND 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH.  SOME FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE FELL EARLIER FOR A GLAZE OF ICE...AND NOW SNOW HAS
SETTLED INTO THE AREA.    WOW.  CANNOT SAY TOO MUCH MORE WITHOUT
GETTING OVERLY WORDY. LE
&&

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR THE EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT HOURS WILL BE
SNOW AND WIND.  HEAVIER SNOW THROUGH THE DAY /WITH LOWEST
VISIBILITIES/ HAS FOLLOWED 700MB FRONTOGENESIS FIELD FAIRLY CLOSELY
ON BOTH 12Z AND 18Z NAM RUNS.  THE FGEN SUPPORT WEAKENS AS IT
CROSSES INTO ERN IA/WRN IL BETWEEN 21-00Z...MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
BY 03-06Z.  WILL BE JUST ENOUGH SNOW TO DROP VIS TO AROUND 1/2SM AT
TIMES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE STRONG NWLY WINDS...BUT DO NOT SEE A
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED 1/4 SM VIS OR LESS...EVEN THOUGH
INTERMITTENT CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.  WILL ALSO BE HARD TO CREATE THAT
KIND OF REDUCED VIS WITH SNOW ACCUMS OF JUST 1-2 INCHES.  STILL DO
THINK THAT SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ENOUGH OF A THREAT TO HOLD ONTO
SOME KIND OF HEADLINE.  GIVEN WIND CHILLS FALLING BELOW CRITERIA
TONIGHT...WILL GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH MORNING
THAT COVERS THE BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY THREAT OVERNIGHT.  WILL BE FAIRLY HEAVY-HANDED ON THE
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE ADVISORY
THOUGH AS CONDITIONS COULD STILL FLIRT WITH BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS
AND TRAVEL WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS.    MAYES

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE WINDS SHOULD HAVE DROPPED OFF ENOUGH THAT WE
ARE LIKELY TO HAVE LOST THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT...BUT WIND CHILLS
WILL STILL BE IN THE -20 TO -30 RANGE...SO WILL BE KEEPING THE WIND
CHILL WARNING THROUGH MID MORNING.  AFTER MID MORNING
THOUGH...CONDITIONS IMPROVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY...WITH WINDS DROPPING OFF
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN TO CALM DOWN THE WINDS.  TEMPERATURES
ARE UNLIKELY TO WARM VERY MUCH THOUGH...AND AFTER YESTERDAY AND THIS
MORNING WILL FEEL QUITE FRIGID.  LE

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT ROLLS THROUGH
THE AREA...WHICH IS ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE.  SINCE THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER ACCESS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...WE
MAY ACTUALLY MANAGE TO GET SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OUT OF IT. RIGHT
NOW THE MODELS ARE KEEPING IT SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH...AND BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST TRENDS WITH THIS TYPE OF
SYSTEM A FEW DAYS OUT HAS BEEN FOR THEM TO BE DEPICTED TOO FAR SOUTH
BY THE MODELS...AND HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THIS HAS CAUSED ME TO KEEP POPS THAT ARE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN MODELS SHOW...AND TO KEEP SNOW IN THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH THE BIG THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SYSTEM
MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA.  HOWEVER...OUT WEST A NEW STORM IS
BREWING...WITH MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING.
FOR NOW HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY AS IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY
MISS US TO THE SOUTH...AND UNCERTAINTY OF THINGS COMPELS ME TO LEAVE
IT DRY...AT LEAST FOR NOW.  SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER
STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MODELS STILL NOT AGREEING
VERY MUCH ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SURFACE FEATURES.  GOOD
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES...BUT THE DETAILS
ARE QUITE MURKY...EVEN FOR THIS TIME RANGE.  LE

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR WITH INTERMITTENT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AROUND 00Z AT KCID...AND AROUND 03Z AT KDBQ/KMLI/KBRL.  VIS
RESTRICTIONS TO 1SM DUE TO SNOW WILL PREDOMINATE...WITH A COUPLE
HOURS OF 1/2 TO 1/4SM POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK OF THE EVENT BETWEEN
20Z-00Z.  BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VIS THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WITH NWLY WINDS CONTINUING AT AROUND 20-30KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40-45KT.  WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE NEAR DAYBREAK...AND VIS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO HIGHER MVFR TO VFR IN THE MORNING.

MAYES

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-
     LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-
     JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.

     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
     FOR CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BUREAU-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

MAYES/LE

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