Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Quad Cities, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 072040
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
340 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

IAC045-097-ILC015-085-177-195-072050-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-080607T2045Z/
JACKSON IA-CLINTON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-STEPHENSON IL-CARROLL IL-
WHITESIDE IL-
340 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WHITESIDE...CARROLL...
SOUTHWESTERN STEPHENSON...SOUTHEASTERN JO DAVIESS...NORTHEASTERN
CLINTON AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 345 PM CDT...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
800 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4159 8966 4161 9010 4221 9024 4220 8964
      4219 8964 4219 8968 4194 8968 4194 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 212DEG 46KT 4215 8948

$$

NICHOLS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
148 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KANSAS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER
NORTHEASTERN IOWA. THIS LOW PRESSURE...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. HEAVY DOWNPOURS THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING COULD ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
IN LOCATIONS WERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED. ..KUHL..

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING WILL CHANGE INTO MORE
OF A HYDROLOGIC THREAT WITH RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AS MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 2
INCHES WITH 850MB DEWPOINTS BETWEEN +15C TO +17C. A LOW LEVEL
SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WILL SERVE AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THESE STORMS AS A 50KT 850MB JET OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL IOWA WILL SLOW TO 35KT ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE. THE RFC 1 AND 3 HOUR DIGITAL FLASH
FLOOD FLOOD GUIDANCE FROM 12Z SATURDAY...SHOW THAT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND 1.5 INCHES ARE ALL THAT IS NEEDED TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING IN LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
THE GFS/NAM PROG THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
IOWA TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REGION
UNTIL THIS BOUNDARY MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND CLEARS THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
THE ECMWF/GFS INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MID WEST WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND CROSS THE MIDWEST. THE FIRST OF THESE
WAVES WILL PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES
UNCERTAIN...I WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ..KUHL..

&&

.AVIATION...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BE RIPE FOR GENERATING
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOCUS MAINLY ON DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN THE EXPECTED PASSAGE OF A COMPLEX OF STORMS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  A SCATTERED TO BROKEN MVFR TO
LOWER VFR DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. ..WOLF..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT EXISTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  SEVERAL POINTS ON THE CEDAR...IOWA AND WAPSIPINICON RIVERS ARE
ALREADY FORECAST TO REACH MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORY DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING FORECAST AT MOST OTHER POINTS
IN THOSE BASINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM KEITHSBURG SOUTH
THROUGH GREGORY LANDING.  TONIGHT...THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL IMPACT
MAINLY THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE IOWA AND CEDAR BASINS AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE UPPER WAPSIPINICON BASIN.  OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL RAINFALL EVENTS COULD RESULT IN 3 TO 4
INCHES /BASIN AVERAGED/ RAINFALL OVER A LARGE PART OF THE AREA WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND A PART OF NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.  OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN AT THIS POINT IS THE IOWA RIVER BASIN...ESPECIALLY
CORALVILLE RESERVOIR AND THE IMPACT THE INCREASED DISCHARGES WILL
HAVE AT IOWA CITY AND POINTS DOWNSTREAM.  CURRENTLY...BASED ON
TONIGHT/S RAINFALL...INCREASES IN THE DISCHARGE RATE WILL RESULT IN A
STAGE AT IOWA CITY AROUND 25.5 FEET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE STAGES ARE BASED ON APPROXIMATELY 2
INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT IN THE UPPER IOWA BASIN.  ANY DEVIATION FROM
THESE AMOUNTS WILL RESULT CHANGES TO THE DISCHARGES AT CORALVILLE
AND CRESTS DOWN STREAM. ..DLF..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LINN-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

KUHL/WOLF/DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
929 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-081000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
929 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS TONIGHT.  WHILE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER
ALL OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...THE HIGHEST RISK EXISTS GENERALLY NORTH AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM OTTUMWA IOWA TO ROCKFORD ILLINOIS. THIS
INCLUDES THE CEDAR RAPIDS AND DUBUQUE AREAS.

THE HAZARDS POSSIBLE TODAY INCLUDE TORNADOES...STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH WILL EXACERBATE RIVER
FLOODING AND POSSIBLY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN POSTED FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IOWA THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WATCHES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY.

IF YOU WILL BE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY...BE SURE
TO KEEP IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION IN THIS VOLATILE
WEATHER SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL IMPACT THE OUTLOOK AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONLY EXACERBATE ONGOING FLOODING AND
COULD POSSIBLY PRODUCE HIGHER CRESTS ON SOME AREA RIVERS. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE GROUND SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS...ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON MANY EASTERN IOWA TRIBUTARY
RIVERS...WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
SOUTH OF MUSCATINE. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT PRODUCT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY. A CONFERENCE CALL
FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE CONDUCTED ABOUT 1130 AM THIS MORNING.

WOLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
216 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N MEDIAPOLIS          41.02N 91.16W
06/07/2008                   DES MOINES         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
229 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0222 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAKVILLE                41.10N 91.04W
06/07/2008                   LOUISA             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DAMAGE IN TOWN.

&&

LE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
234 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     TSTM WND GST     DAVENPORT               41.56N 90.60W
06/07/2008  M56 MPH          SCOTT              IA   MESONET

            INTERSTATES 80 AND 280 INTERCHANGE

&&

DLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
238 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0237 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LONG GROVE              41.69N 90.58W
06/07/2008                   SCOTT              IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            SOME SHINGLES BLOWING OFF THE ROOF OF A HOUSE.

&&

RAYW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PARK VIEW               41.69N 90.54W
06/07/2008                   SCOTT              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GAS PUMPS/STATION DAMAGED. WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED AT 80
            MPH.

&&

LE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
248 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     TSTM WND GST     DEWITT                  41.82N 90.55W
06/07/2008  E65 MPH          CLINTON            IA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            60 TO 65 MPH WIND CAUSED LOTS OF TREE DAMAGE

&&

15