Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1052 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

.UPDATE...
SEVERE MCS IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY OVER CENTRAL IOWA AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL BE BARRELLING INTO THE FORECAST AREA HERE WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HAVE MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES TO THE MIN T...
TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT AND WIND TRENDS. OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL BE ROLLING ACROSS KCID...KDBQ AND KMLI IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH HEAVY RAIN...LOW CIGS AND VISBYS. WILL BE
ADJUSTING TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION WITH UPDATES AND NEW ISSUANCES
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LATEST FORECASTED RAINFALL IS PRETTY HEFTY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...
AND HAS PRODUCED SOME RATHER HIGH CREST FORECASTS ON THE
WAPSIPINICON...MAQUOKETA...CEDAR AND IOWA RIVERS. ON THE MAQUOKETA
NEAR MANCHESTER...THIS CREST IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS...SO WENT
AHEAD AND ISSUED THE WARNING FOR THIS LOCATION. OTHERWISE...WE
HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME TO SEE WHERE THE ACTUAL MAX RAINFALL AXIS
OCCURRS...AND HAVE HELD OFF ON RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR NOW. THE
WAPSIPINICON AT DEWITT OF COURSE ALREADY HAD A FLOOD WARNING...SO
JUST UPDATED THIS WARNING WITH THE NEW INFORMATION WITH A CAVEAT
ABOUT THE RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-
     ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

LE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
455 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-300900-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-CLINTON
IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-HENDERSON IL-HENRY
IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-
JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-
MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-
STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
455 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TODAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE SEVERE.

TONIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR OR MORE
POSSIBLE.  WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE IS
EXPECTED DUE TO A TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS
HEAVY RAIN COULD FALL ON ALREADY MOIST SOILS ALLOWING FOR THE RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. LOCATIONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING IS NORTH OF I-80 IN IOWA...FOR THIS REASON...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MAY
ALSO APPROACH OR REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS. STRONG WINDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.  LOCATIONS THAT COULD
EXPERIENCE SEVERE WEATHER ARE PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
34.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A MANCHESTER TO FAIRFIELD LINE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CURRENT INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE AREA MOST AT RISK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OTTUMWA IOWA TO STERLING ILLINOIS.

SATURDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.   PLEASE REPORT AND SEVERE
WEATHER...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE QUAD CITIES WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE.

NICHOLS/08

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-ILZ001-300645-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-JO DAVIESS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INDEPENDENCE...MANCHESTER...DUBUQUE...
VINTON...CEDAR RAPIDS...ANAMOSA...MAQUOKETA...GALENA
1137 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS...

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA BY 1
AM. THE STORMS WERE JUST ENTERING WESTERN BUCHANAN AND BENTON
COUNTIES AND WILL REACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 1 AM. VERY
HEAVY RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH IN AN HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY RAINS ON THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND MAY
CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

DLF

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