Severe Thunderstorm Warning 272, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
256 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IL TO EASTERN IA TO NORTHWEST MO
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER. ECMWF HINTS AT STRONG WARM FRONT RETURNING ABOUT SUNDAY
WITH DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST IL TO EASTERN IA TO NORTHWEST MO
AND WILL CONTINUE SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ERUPTED LAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN OUR IA CWA AHEAD OF FRONT FROM I-80
SOUTHWARD. CAP ERODING AS COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SPREAD SOUTH
INTO THE AREA...WITH LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO SOUTHERN IA.
THUNDERSTORMS FEEDING ON VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MSAS SHOWING LI OF
-9 IN SOUTHEAST IA AND DEWPOINT OF 78 AT BRL. ALREADY GETTING SEVERE
WEATHER REPORTS AND WILL HAVE SEVERE MENTIONED IN GRIDS FOR THIS
MORNING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AS LARGER BOW
ECHO BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE. WILL ALSO HAVE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-80. MAIN ACTION SHOULD SHIFT OFF THE EAST OF THE CWA
LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL CARRY ONLY SMALL CHANCE IN OUR FAR
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE 80S WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING HUMIDITY VALUES. THEN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FEEDING INTO THE CWA OVERNIGHT BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THIS
PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES.
RATHER LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SO QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED BY THE ECMWF MODEL
TO BE 12 TO 14C ACROSS THE CWA WHICH SUPPORTS RATHER PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST.

SUNDAY...ECMWF INDICATES STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST WITH SIGNALS SUPPORTING AN MCS DEVELOPING IN THE DVN CWA.
WILL PASS CONCERNS TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO EVALUATE FOR ADDING POPS ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING SHOULD AFFECT KMLI/KBRL SITES AS COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1025 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-050900-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-CLINTON
IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-HENDERSON IL-HENRY
IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-
JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-
MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-
STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
1025 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE
TO POSSIBLY GOLF BALL SIZE... WITH DAMAGING WINDS A SECONDARY THREAT.

ASIDE FROM THE STORMS...AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE
FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN
ONE QUARTER MILE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COOL FRONT. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SOUTH OF I-
80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1014 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     GOOSE LAKE              41.97N 90.38W
08/04/2008  M76.00 MPH       CLINTON            IA   PUBLIC

            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. DELAYED REPORT.

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOOSE LAKE              41.97N 90.38W
08/04/2008                   CLINTON            IA   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN. RELAYED FROM BROADCAST MEDIA. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

JH2

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
205 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099-MOZ009-010-050930-
CLARK MO-DES MOINES IA-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LOUISA IA-
SCOTLAND MO-VAN BUREN IA-WASHINGTON IA-
205 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEEVLOPING...

A DEVELOPING AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 430 PM. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS OF 45 TO OVER 65
MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR MAY PRODUCE PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS.

NICHOLS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
207 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099-MOZ009-010-050930-
CLARK MO-DES MOINES IA-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LOUISA IA-
SCOTLAND MO-VAN BUREN IA-WASHINGTON IA-
207 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...

A DEVELOPING AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH 430 PM. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS OF 45 TO OVER 65
MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR MAY PRODUCE PONDING
OF WATER IN LOW LYING LOCATIONS.

NICHOLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
240 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     TSTM WND GST     SIGOURNEY               41.33N 92.21W
08/05/2008  E50 MPH          KEOKUK             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0224 AM     TSTM WND GST     SIGOURNEY               41.33N 92.21W
08/05/2008  M54 MPH          KEOKUK             IA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MEASURED BY RWIS.

&&

BILLN

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 AM     TSTM WND GST     KEOTA                   41.37N 91.96W
08/05/2008  E70 MPH          KEOKUK             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER ESTIMATED 60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

MIKEZ