Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Quad Cities, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 272354
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
652 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

IAC087-101-107-111-177-MOC045-199-280030-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0243.000000T0000Z-080728T0030Z/
LEE IA-VAN BUREN IA-JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-KEOKUK IA-CLARK MO-
SCOTLAND MO-
652 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR SCOTLAND...NORTHERN CLARK...SOUTHEASTERN KEOKUK...SOUTHWESTERN
HENRY...JEFFERSON...VAN BUREN AND WESTERN LEE COUNTIES...

AT 650 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE 
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY FROM NEAR NEAR FAIRFIELD TO MILTON...MOVING 
SOUTHEAST AT 32 MPH.  THIS LINE HAS PRODUCED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH WITH REPORTS OF TREE LIMBS DOWN IN THE PAST 30 MINUTES.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  UTICA...KEOSAUQUA AIRPORT AND KEOSAUQUA AROUND 700 PM CDT...
  BENTONSPORT/VERNON AROUND 705 PM CDT...
  BONAPARTE AROUND 710 PM CDT...
  FARMINGTON AND INDIAN LAKE PARK AROUND 720 PM CDT...
  SHIMEK STATE FOREST...PRIMROSE AND ANSON AROUND 725 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN IOWA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 4060 9235 4060 9220 4116 9219 4117 9195
      4066 9135 4040 9168 4032 9233
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 318DEG 28KT 4082 9193

$$

NICHOLS

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 280021
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
721 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

IAC087-101-107-111-177-MOC045-199-280031-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0243.000000T0000Z-080728T0030Z/
LEE IA-VAN BUREN IA-JEFFERSON IA-HENRY IA-KEOKUK IA-CLARK MO-
SCOTLAND MO-
722 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SCOTLAND...NORTHERN CLARK...
SOUTHEASTERN KEOKUK...SOUTHWESTERN HENRY...JEFFERSON...VAN BUREN AND
WESTERN LEE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 730 PM CDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
SUNDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN IOWA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL 
ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.  GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL 
ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE HOUR.

LAT...LON 4060 9235 4060 9220 4116 9219 4117 9195
      4066 9135 4040 9168 4032 9233
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 318DEG 28KT 4065 9173

$$

NICHOLS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WILL BE CONCISE AS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE MCS TO ARRIVE LATE PM
AS SPC IN PROCESS OF ISSUING WATCH.  NOWCAST TOOLS SHOW MODERATE TO
STRONG MCS TO IMPACT AREA...ESPECIALLY SW 2/3 TO 3/4 CWA WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME SEVERE RISK SW SECTIONS.  SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AM DUE TO COOL POOL AND BACK-BUILDING.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES SUGGEST FORWARDING PROPAGATING MCS WITH
SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLE ASYMMETRICAL VORTEX WITH HIGHEST
QPF +/- 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A VINTON TO MACOMB LINE.  RAIN TOTALS
1/2 UP TO 3 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED MOST/ALL CWA WITH RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING LATE EVENING TO PASS TO EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER
ALONG HEAVY RAIN AXIS. LOW TO MODERATE END SEVERE RISK WITH MAIN RISK
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO POSSIBLY UP TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SW OF AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AXIS. MONDAY...HIGHS MAY
NEED LOWERING WITH CLOUDS AND BACK-BUILDING A CONCERN. IF BACK-
BUILDING AND COOL POOL INTERACTION OCCURS...6 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE WITH SYSTEM.  ..NICHOLS..

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT WE WILL SEE AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY. RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF DOLLY
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S FOR A VERY MUGGY COUPLE OF DAYS. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 2.3 INCHES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS HINT
THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING SOMEWHERE IN OUR REGION. EXACT AREA OF THE REGION AND HOW
IT MAY IMPACT THE DVN CWA STILL NOT RESOLVED AND THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED. ANY PREVIOUS MCS EVENTS THAT SATURATE THE GROUND PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL. THEN CONFIDENCE LOWERS AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

NEXT WEEKEND...12Z ECMWF/GFS DEEPENS IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO ABOUT
12C OVER OUR REGION FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND LOWER
HUMIDITIES. USING 12Z MEX GUIDANCE BUT EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES MAY
BE TOO HIGH DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER. OF COURSE THIS DOMINATE
NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER AND SEE NO
REASON TO DISCOUNT IT. IN FACT TELECONNECTIONS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT WELL INTO AUGUST.   ..HAASE..

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVR TO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 23Z AND
08Z WITH PERIODS OF +TSRA/+SHRA WITH LARGE MCS SYSTEM. PREDOMINATE
MVR TO LOCALLY IFR TO CONTINUE INTO MORNING DUE TO CIGS 1-4K AGL WITH
SCATTERED LINGERING TSRA/SHRA.  PARTIAL CLEARING AND VFR INTO
AFTERNOON WITH NEXT MCS IMPACTING TERMINALS LATE PM.  ..NICHOLS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

NICHOLS/HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
432 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-280945-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
432 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL. LOCAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS MIGHT
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. MONDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THIS WILL CREATE A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHEETS/LE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

IAZ040-041-051-052-063-064-076-077-272300-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-DELAWARE IA-IOWA IA-JOHNSON IA-KEOKUK IA-LINN IA-
WASHINGTON IA-
325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 PM...

A DEVELOPING AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL IOWA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH AND POSSIBLY
SOME PEA SIZE HAIL.  RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO A HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY ONE INCH AMOUNTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF
WATER MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR.

NICHOLS