Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
305 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY BUSY WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A STRONG
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER
AREA...EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  THERE IS
CONVECTION THAT FORMED ALONG IT AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST
SOUTH OF THAT BOUNDARY.  MORE CONVECTION HAS FORMED ALONG A WEAKER
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN IOWA SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA NEAR
VINTON IOWA...TO ABOUT STERLING.  STORMS RIGHT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE BEEN PRODUCING THE ISOLATED TORNADIC STORM...THOUGH WE HAVE HAD
HAIL STORMS AS WELL ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.  INSTABILITY IS
VERY LARGE OVER THE AREA...WITH CAPE VALUES UP OVER 3000 IN
PLACES...AND SHEAR VALUES ABOVE 30 NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.  THE
CONVECTION FORMED AHEAD OF A 500MB SHORTWAVE...AND IT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT
STORMS TO CONTINUE AS LONG AS THE WAVE IS IN THE AREA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...TONIGHT THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...CONTINUING TO MOVE
EAST ALONG WITH THE 500MB SHORT WAVE.  EXPECT THAT THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAS BEEN
GENERATED OFF OF THE MINNESOTA CONVECTION WILL DROP SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND SHOULD BE DONE BY
06Z TONIGHT.  IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL HAVE A BREAK AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST FOR A SHORT WHILE FRIDAY MORNING.  FRIDAY THE
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT CLOUDS FROM
THE SOUTH WILL KEEP US FROM HAVING FULL SUN...WHICH WOULD REDUCE OUR
TEMPERATURES.  STILL HAVE MAX TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AROUND
90...AND WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...WILL BE LOOKING AT HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 95 TO 100 RANGE.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO OUR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ONE IF THOSE CLOUDS DO
NOT LOOK LIKE THEY ARE GOING TO MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE MAIN FOCUS IS THE SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  FOR NOW
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
PASSAGE...BUT WE WILL STILL BE LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.  WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THIS RISK...BUT
SPC HAS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF US FOR SATURDAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY TO BE DRY AND COOL WITH WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW IN
BEHIND THE SATURDAY FRONT PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS TO BE
SEASONABLY COOL...IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY...WARMING
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY.  RETURN FLOW KICKS IN
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND NORTHEAST.  THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS
ON...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PRECIPITATION EITHER.  THE COLD FRONT DROPS
INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE GONE WITH SLOWLY INCREASING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...TO CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER.  DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES ALSO
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BOTH DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND SHOULD ONLY AFFECT KDBQ...KCID...AND
KMLI TAF SITES.  EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.
&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

LE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
459 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
459 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN EAST
CENTRAL IOWA. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH THE CHANCE
OF STORMS DECREASING TO THE SOUTH.

A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS. ACTUAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE 90 TO 94 DEGREES AT MANY
LOCATIONS...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY MAY CREATE HEAT
INDICIES OF 95 TO 105. THIS SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY
ISSUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORIES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A FREEPORT ILLINOIS TO MOLINE TO FAIRFIELD IOWA LINE.
THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS OF AT LEAST 70 MPH WITH
LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

HAASE/DLF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
910 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             2 S ROCK FALLS          41.75N 89.69W
07/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
911 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HAIL             2 N LUXEMBURG           42.63N 91.07W
07/10/2008  E1.75 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL-SIZED HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

14

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
915 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             RYAN                    42.35N 91.48W
07/10/2008  M1.00 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

0600 PM     HAIL             3 W MANCHESTER          42.49N 91.51W
07/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

0612 PM     HAIL             MANCHESTER              42.49N 91.46W
07/10/2008  M0.88 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF TOWN. WIDESPREAD PEA SIZE HAIL.

0615 PM     HAIL             MANCHESTER              42.49N 91.46W
07/10/2008  M1.00 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF TOWN.

0615 PM     HAIL             HOPKINTON               42.34N 91.25W
07/10/2008  E1.25 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND LARGER. TIME ESTIMATED.

0620 PM     HAIL             BUCK CREEK              42.33N 91.35W
07/10/2008  E1.25 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND LARGER. TIME ESTIMATED.

0625 PM     HAIL             DELHI                   42.43N 91.33W
07/10/2008  E1.25 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND LARGER. TIME ESTIMATED. CORRECTED
            FOR TYPO.

0630 PM     HAIL             MONTICELLO              42.24N 91.19W
07/10/2008  M0.75 INCH       JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0631 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N ORANGEVILLE         42.48N 89.64W
07/10/2008  M56.00 MPH       STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NEAR STATELINE ROAD AND HIGHWAY 26.

0637 PM     HAIL             MONTICELLO              42.24N 91.19W
07/10/2008  E2.00 INCH       JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 TO 2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL IN TOWN.

0642 PM     HAIL             E TISKILWA              41.29N 89.50W
07/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       BUREAU             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

0642 PM     HAIL             MONTICELLO              42.24N 91.19W
07/10/2008  M2.00 INCH       JONES              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            JUST WEST OF TOWN. QUARTER SIZE REPORTED NORTH OF TOWN.

0650 PM     HAIL             TISKILWA                41.29N 89.51W
07/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       BUREAU             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED. SPOTTER DROVE THROUGH DIME-SIZED HAIL THE
            ENTIRE ROUTE TO LAKE THUNDERBIRD IN PUTNAM COUNTY.

0653 PM     HAIL             4 SSE WINSLOW           42.44N 89.77W
07/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZE HAIL.

0657 PM     HAIL             LAKE THUNDERBIRD        41.22N 89.45W
07/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       PUTNAM             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED. SPOTTER DROVE THROUGH DIME-SIZED HAIL THE
            ENTIRE ROUTE FROM TISKILWA /BUREAU COUNTY/ TO LAKE
            THUNDERBIRD.

0708 PM     HAIL             2 E FREEPORT            42.29N 89.60W
07/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL 2 E OF FREEPORT ON HWY 20.

0709 PM     HAIL             ONSLOW                  42.11N 91.01W
07/10/2008  E0.25 INCH       JONES              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            N OF ONSLOW

0710 PM     HAIL             5 SW MC NABB            41.13N 89.28W
07/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       PUTNAM             IL   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT

0744 PM     HAIL             5 NE BELLEVUE           42.32N 90.36W
07/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL.

0752 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW LUXEMBURG          42.62N 91.10W
07/10/2008                   DUBUQUE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PIECES OF TREE DEBRIS LOFTED AND ROTATION IN CLOUDS NEAR
            WHITE PINE HOLLOW STATE PARK.

0802 PM     HAIL             1 N HOLY CROSS          42.62N 91.00W
07/10/2008  E1.75 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NEAR CLAYTON COUNTY LINE.

0814 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GALENA                  42.42N 90.43W
07/10/2008                   JO DAVIESS         IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            JUST RECEIVED 1.00 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 15 MINUTES.
            PONDING OF WATER IS OBSERVED EVERYWHERE.

0833 PM     HAIL             1 N COLETA              41.92N 89.80W
07/10/2008  E0.50 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO HALF INCH HAIL AT CLARK AND COLETA ROADS.

0835 PM     HAIL             N COLESBURG             42.64N 91.20W
07/10/2008  E1.75 INCH       DELAWARE           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

0839 PM     HAIL             3 SE COLETA             41.87N 89.75W
07/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL-SIZED HAIL.

0846 PM     HAIL             2 N LUXEMBURG           42.63N 91.07W
07/10/2008  E1.75 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLF BALL-SIZED HAIL. TIME ESTIMATED.

0900 PM     HAIL             2 S ROCK FALLS          41.75N 89.69W
07/10/2008  E0.75 INCH       WHITESIDE          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

14