Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WAS BROUGHT LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AND MID CLOUDS OVER THE AREA WERE KEEPING TEMPS UP OVER THE AREA.
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA CONTINUES TO BUBBLE UP FROM CENTRAL IA NE THRU NRN
IL. THE CONVECTION IN CENTRAL IA APPEARS TO BE TIED TO THETA-E MAX
OVER WRN IA...WHILE CONVECTION FURTHER EAST MAY BE RELATED TO
COMBINATION OF WEAK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH WI AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. S/W IN WNW FLOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR OVER THE
DAKOTAS WAS SUPPORTING AREA OF TSRA FROM WRN NE INTO ND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PCPN CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT.  WILL KEEP SLGT
CHANCE POPS IN THE NRN HALF FOR THIS MORNING WITH ISOLD TSRA STILL
ONGOING OVER CENTRAL IA. IF THIS HOLDS TOGETHER...FEEL IT WILL
MAINLY IMPACT EAST CENTRAL EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT WILL NOT GET TO
PICKY WITH THE LOW POPS AND KEEP THEM OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWFA
SINCE WE HAVEN/T HAD ANY TROUBLE GENERATING PCPN IN THIS WEAKLY
FORCED ENVIRONMENT.  S/W OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE JUST N-NE OF
CWFA LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD BE ABLE
TO DESTABILIZE ENUF BY LATE MORNING TO FUEL TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
S/W.  BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WITH FEATURE WILL BE NE IA INTO WI AND NR
IL. KEPT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR NORTH AND TAPERED OFF TO SLGT CHANCE
IN THE SOUTH. SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. HAIL/WIND ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. KEPT LOW
CHANCE POPS GOING INTO THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES LEFT BEHIND BY THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT...SO KEPT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS DRY. BASED ON TEMPS YESTERDAY TO THE SOUTH AND SW ALONG WITH
MIXING TO AROUND H8 TODAY KEPT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
INCREASING GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL KEEP S WINDS GOING OVERNIGHT...SO
BUMPED MINS UP TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

..DLF..

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOCUS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY
FOLLOWED BY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH STRONG COLD FRONT.

WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY OF AT
LEAST 90 WITH DEWPOINTS AT LEAST IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS PUTS HEAT
INDICIES IN THE 95 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE AND THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY. OPTED NOT TO ISSUE YET AS STILL TIME TO
ASSESS THE SITUATION. ALSO THERE IS THE QUESTION OF CLOUD COVER
SPILLING INTO THE REGION FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TO THE NORTH
THAT COULD HAMPER THE HEATING POTENTIAL.

OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF MN FRIDAY-SATURDAY. ECMWF IS AT LEAST 10 MB DEEPER VERSUS
GFS SO EXACT TIMING OF FRONT INTO OUR REGION YET TO BE DETERMINED.
BEST ESTIMATE IS FRONT TO COME IN SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS WITH SUCH A STRONG FRONT INTERACTING
WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
WHILE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE EVENING. NEW SWODY2 FROM SPC
SHOWING MOST OF THE DVN CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. EXPECTING A LINE OF
STORMS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND AS MID LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN THE
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE...POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

ASSUMING ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WORKED OVER FROM STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERING CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING...EXPECTING INTENSE STORMS TO
RE-FIRE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA ON SATURDAY AS FRONT
CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY IN ILLINOIS WITH FRONT ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
SHOULD BE A PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR MID JULY WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE REGION.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITIES.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SIGNALLING A WARMING TREND AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. GFS HINTING AT A CHANCE FOR
WARM ADVECTION THUNDERSTORMS BUT ECMWF MAINTAINING A DRY LOOK.
CURRENTLY THE GRIDS CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY.

..HAASE..

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  S-SW SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  SOME
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA THIS MORNING
SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF SITES.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH KCID/KDBQ HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
CONVECTION. SINCE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED WILL INCLUDE
A VCTS IN THE KCID/KDBQ TAFS. COVERAGE/THREAT OF TSRA WILL DIMINISH
TO THE SOUTH. TSRA THREAT TO END BY MID EVENING AT ALL TAF SITES.

..DLF..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

HAASE/DLF

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
208 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N ONSLOW              42.15N 91.01W
07/10/2008                   JONES              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORN CROPS BLOWN OVER. WINDS ESTIMATED AT 40-50
            MPH...POSSIBLY STRONGER.

&&

JAZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
234 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S MAQUOKETA           41.99N 90.65W
07/10/2008                   CLINTON            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DRIVER REPORTS DEBRIS LOFTED INTO THE AIR AND FLYING
            ABOUT. LOCATED SOUTH OF INTERSECTION OF US HWY 61 AND IA
            HWY 136.

&&

JAZ

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>