Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1047 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

.UPDATE...
THIS MORNING MCS THAT DROPPED 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA HAS MOVED INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. HAVE CANCELLED THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. STRONG COLD FRONT FROM MCW TO DSM TO
SOUTHWEST MO WILL SWEEP TO THE MS RIVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO ILLINOIS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SNOW IS FALLING
IN NORTHWEST IA AND INTO SD AND NEB. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
CLEARING TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF FRONT SO INSTABILITY WILL BE
INCREASING. NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALREADING BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF DSM INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INTO
EASTERN IOWA. MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND. EVENTUALLY A BKN-SOLID LINE OF STORMS WILL FORM IN
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS
HAVE ENDED SO WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 1 PM.

HAVE ALREADY SENT UPDATED GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR THE DBQ/BRL/MLI TAFS FOR LATE
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MORE SOLID LINE OF STORMS WILL
EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER EAST IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS. STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 KNOTS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT.
&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
406 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-260915-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
406 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA. BOUNDARIES LEFT
OVER BY THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL ALLOW MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SEVERE STORMS MAY BEEN SEEN TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AND THE AMOUNT OF DAY TIME HEATING. THERE IS A
VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS
MAY LIE WITH THE ARRIVING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THIS MORNING. IF THIS
WOULD OCCUR...HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STORMS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
SOILS ARE SATURATED SO ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RUN OFF
RAPIDLY.

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND MOST TRIBUTARY RIVERS IN EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. FLOOD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR POINTS IN THE WAPSIPINICON...CEDAR...IOWA...
ENGLISH...SKUNK...DES MOINES...AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER BASINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT CREATING A
THREAT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND A WIDESPREAD FROST ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 80.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

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