Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Quad Cities, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDVN 142145
SVSDVN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

IAC011-019-113-142155-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0142.000000T0000Z-080614T2145Z/
BUCHANAN IA-BENTON IA-LINN IA-
445 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN LINN...NORTHEASTERN
BENTON AND SOUTHERN BUCHANAN COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 445 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER HAS
WEAKENED. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.

LAT...LON 4230 9209 4230 9207 4234 9207 4241 9205
      4233 9160 4230 9160 4230 9142 4229 9137
      4208 9148 4224 9211
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 284DEG 32KT 4227 9186

$$

LE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL IA ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDED FROM SW WI...THROUGH CENTRAL
IA...TO SE NEB AT 19Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EAST SE INTO
THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY ADVANCES E-SE
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 528 IS IN PLACE UNTIL 7 PM.
THESE WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DIURNALLY...THEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT AS NOSE OF H8 MOISTURE EDGING
INTO OK AT 12Z ADVANCES N-NE INTO CENTRAL IA. LINGERING BOUNDARIES
AND PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OVER
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES EARLY TO MID WEEK...PROVIDING A NW FLOW ALOFT AND A PERIOD
OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WITH WIDESPREAD ON-GOING FLOODING AND SATURATED CONDITIONS...MAIN
FOCUS IS ON HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH MAIN
SUPERCELL MOVING INTO E CENTRAL IA MAY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING. LATER FOCUS WILL BE ON REDEVELOPMENT ON EXISTING
BOUNDARIES AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL JET LATER TONIGHT...WHEN
H8 HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND AXIS OF DEWPOINTS IN 60S IN KS AND NW MO
REPLACES THE WIDESPREAD 50S OVER THE CWA. PW VALUES DO NOT APPEAR
AS HIGH AS AIRMASS WITH LAST EVENT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
EVOLUTION FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS FF VALUES VERY LOW
OVER AREA. OVERALL...MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON
CURRENT EVOLUTION AND QPF COVERAGE TONIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH
COMPROMISE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT QPF FROM ABOUT .2 TO .5 INCHES.

SUNDAY...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND CANADIAN UPPER VORTEX
AND ASSOCIATED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DRIVE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SEVERE RISK WILL CONTINUE AND SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA IN SLIGHT RISK.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING NW FLOW AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST FRI AND SAT...WITH MOISTURE
RETURNING FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. SINCE IT IS TOO EARLY TO
NARROW DOWN TIMING OF RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVES THAT WILL ACT AS A
TRIGGER...HAVE POPS ONLY IN SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN VICINITY OF
CID...DBQ AND MLI TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THESE WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA...
BUT CONFIDENCE OF THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TO INCLUDE
IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A HISTORIC HYDROLOGIC EVENT CONTINUES UNFOLDING WITH UNPRECEDENTED
IMPACTS AT MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE LARGER RIVERS AND STREAMS IN
EASTERN IOWA. MAJOR TO RECORD FLOODING IS ONGOING...OR FORECAST...IN
THESE LOCATIONS AS WELL AS AT MANY LOCATIONS ON THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE QUAD CITIES. MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON THE ROCK RIVER IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

..JAZ..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHEETS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
449 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-141000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
449 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL
IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A UPPER ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH BUILDING
INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN LOOK TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WIND
SHEAR IN THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO POSSIBLY PRODUCE
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM WEST OF IOWA CITY...TO DUBUQUE
AFTER 3 PM. TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH 11 PM.

GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUBSTANTIAL...BUT A FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE REPEATED STORM ACTIVITY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY GET UP TO A HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SUNDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS.  SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.  ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TOTALS OVER 1 INCH MAY
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING WHERE THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED.

MAJOR TO RECORD FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
MOST TRIBUTARY RIVERS. DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT PRODUCT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

12/ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     TSTM WND GST     VINTON                  42.16N 92.03W
06/14/2008  M62 MPH          BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
353 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             1 S WATKINS             41.87N 91.98W
06/14/2008  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0341 PM     TSTM WND GST     EDGEWOOD                42.64N 91.40W
06/14/2008  E50 MPH          DELAWARE           IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0354 PM     HAIL             1 N MARENGO             41.81N 92.07W
06/14/2008  E0.25 INCH       IOWA               IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
400 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W COLESBURG           42.64N 91.24W
06/14/2008  E65 MPH          DELAWARE           IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
404 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     HAIL             AMANA                   41.80N 91.87W
06/14/2008  E0.88 INCH       IOWA               IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AND 50 MPH WIND.

&&

DMD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
407 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             MIDDLE AMANA            41.80N 91.90W
06/14/2008  E1.75 INCH       IOWA               IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

DMD