Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
315 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING RECORD BREAKING FLOODING EVENT WILL TRY AND MAKE THIS
CONCISE. WE ARE IN THE MIDST FOR MUCH IF NOT MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA TO EXPERIENCE A FLOODING EVENT THAT WILL LIKELY SURPASS THE
INFAMOUS FLOOD OF 1993 OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE IMPACTS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...NOWCAST TOOLS SUPPORT SUITE OF SOLUTIONS FOR SE
2/3 TO 3/4 AREA TO EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WITH TROPICAL CONDITIONS AND PW/S OF NEAR 2 INCHES SUGGESTING
LOCALIZED 4 TO 5 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON TOP OF THE RECORD
BREAKING FLOODING OCCURRING ON THE CEDAR AND IOWA RIVERS THAT ARE 3
TO 6+ FEET ABOVE 100 TO 150 RECORD CRESTS. THIS EQUATES TO ROUGHLY
500 PLUS YEAR RIVER FLOODING. THE WAPSIPINICON RIVER TO EXPERIENCE
NEAR RECORD TO RECORD FLOODING WITH LOCATIONS BETWEEN ANAMOSA AND
DEWITT APPROACHING 100 YEAR FLOODING.  THE LOWER HALF OR MORE OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALSO TO REACH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD FLOODING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. UPPED POPS TO CATEGORICAL WITH SOME
SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING..MAINLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS OF 70 MPH AS
BOWING SEGMENTS TO EVOLVE EARLY TO MID PM WITH SOME HP SUPERCELLS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE INITIALLY FROM 3 PM UNTIL ROUGHLY 8 PM.
RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR WILL MAKE FOR SERIOUS FLASH
FLOODING RISK WHICH HAS BEEN ALREADY OCCURRING SINCE LAST NIGHT WITH
ALL THE AREA IN FLASH FLOOD WATCHES TONIGHT AND SE 2/3 LASTING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN TO END SE 1/3 WITH LIGHT
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS THERE WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE PM NW 1/2.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS TO STAY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET AND SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  SOME
ISOLATED SHRA TO TSRA MAY OCCUR ALONG HIGHWAY 20 LATE PM WITH WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES REACHED INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SUNDAY...YESTERDAY/S CONCERN IS UNFORTUNATELY VERIFYING. ALL 12Z
SOLUTIONS POINTING TOWARD ANOTHER MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN
EVENT IN FAST NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH LOCAL TOOLS USING HIGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING LEVELS FOR THIS TYPE REGIME SUGGESTING AREAS OF
1 TO 3 PLUS INCHES THAT WOULD HAVE TREMENDOUS IMPACTS IF FALLS ON
EAST CENTRAL IOWA. THESE LOCATIONS AND TIMING WILL BE BETTER
CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL IMPACTS ON OUR RECORD
FLOODING. UPPED POPS TO MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE WITH ONLY MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ATTM.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEASONALLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
TO KEEP REST OF PERIOD COOL AND DRY (OR AT LEAST SOME DRYING OF
OUR WET CONDITIONS).  HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY..HAVE LEFT THURSDAY DRY ATTM UNTIL
TIMING OF THIS NEXT EVENT HAS GREATER CONFIDENCE.  ..NICHOLS..

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY ACTIVE PERIOD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.  WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS CIGS CAN DROP INTO
THE MVFR CATEGORY...AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR IN HEAVY RAIN.  STORMS
HAVE BEEN REGENERATING SINCE 18Z...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MID
EVENING. THERE WILL BE NEW DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z FRIDAY MORNING TO
AFFECT MAINLY KMLI AND KBRL AS A FRESH WAVE MOVES NORTH INTO THE
AREA.    ..LE..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RECORD...HISTORICAL RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING WITH
CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS WITH LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS UNFOLDING NEXT
72 TO 96+ HOURS.  ADJUSTING MANY RIVER LEVELS AS ADDITIONAL RAINS AND
RUNOFF ADD TO RAPIDLY RISING RIVER LEVELS.  AGAIN...THIS FLOODING
EVENT IS GREATER THAN THE FLOOD OF 1993 FOR MUCH IF NOT MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SEE HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
..NICHOLS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LINN.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR JO DAVIESS.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CARROLL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR HENRY-
     BUREAU-PUTNAM-HENDERSON-WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

NICHOLS/LE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
459 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-131000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
459 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOOD EVENT IS
EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MORE
SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY THAT OCCURS THE GREATER THE SEVERE RISK.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS GREATER THAN
70 MPH...BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION ...HEAVY RAINS OF AT LEAST 1 TO 3 INCHES IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WILL CAUSE SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING. THIS AMOUNT OF
RAIN MAY EITHER AGGRAVATE OR WORSEN RIVER FLOODING THAT IS ALREADY
AT RECORD LEVELS AT SOME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WITH MODERATE TO RECORD FLOODING ON MANY EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS TRIBUTARY RIVERS. DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE
LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT PRODUCT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
240 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BERTRAM                 41.95N 91.54W
06/12/2008  M2.50 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOTAL FROM 130 AM TO 1230 PM.

&&

DLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
244 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0244 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 ENE HIAWATHA          42.06N 91.65W
06/12/2008  M5.00 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 6 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

LE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     HAIL             3 WNW RIDOTT            42.31N 89.52W
06/12/2008  E1.75 INCH       STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OCCURRING RIGHT NOW.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
321 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     HAIL             FREEPORT                42.29N 89.63W
06/12/2008  E1.75 INCH       STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALONG HIGHWAY 20 SOUTH OF FREEPORT

&&

DLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
322 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FREEPORT                42.29N 89.63W
06/12/2008                   STEPHENSON         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            12 INCH DIAMETER TREE BRANCHES DOWN. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO
            BUILDINGS. ALONG HIGHWAY 20 SOUTH OF FREEPORT. TIME
            ESTIMATED.

&&

DLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             LANGWORTHY              42.18N 91.22W
06/12/2008  E0.88 INCH       JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

0326 PM     HAIL             MONTICELLO              42.24N 91.19W
06/12/2008  E1.00 INCH       JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&