Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
918 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR RADAR TRENDS...WITH ANOTHER
EXPECTED HERE IN A COUPLE HOURS AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA. THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
IOWA SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR MORE THAN A FEW MORE
HOURS AS CONDITIONS ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF THE TYPE OF NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
HOWEVER...MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY MAY KEEP THESE
STORMS GOING LONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW OF THEM TO GET INTO THE WESTERN
IOWA COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. HAVE LEFT FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
ALONE FOR NOW...AND WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS BEFORE CHANGING IT.

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WE HAD EARLIER THIS EVENING ARE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING...AND WE SHOULD HAVE A DRY...VFR FORECAST IN
THE TAFS FOR AFTER 04Z. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST
LOCATIONS AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE MID 50S.  ..LE..

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY BUSY TODAY...HYDRO-WISE. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AT MANY LOCATIONS IN OUR REGION...THE LATEST OF WHICH IS
THE IOWA RIVER IN THE IOWA CITY AREA. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF OUR RIVERS IN EASTERN IA...AND NORTHWESTERN IL. IN MOST
LOCATIONS...AT LEAST MODERATE FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

ONE RELATED CONCERN IS THE FORECAST ACCURACY WITH RECORD OR NEAR
RECORD FLOODING. SINCE WE USE STAGE-DISCHARGE RELATIONSHIPS TO
FORECAST THE RIVERS...THESE RELATIONSHIPS BECOME UNCERTAIN AT HIGH
STAGES BECAUSE...BY DEFINITION...THESE STAGES HAVE EITHER NEVER BEEN
SEEN OR HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN IN A LONG TIME. WE ARE WORKING WITH THE
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...AND THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS...TO
COLLABORATE ON THESE STAGE-DISCHARGE RELATIONSHIPS.

MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. IF THIS RAIN MATERIALIZES
THEN IT WOULD EITHER ADD TO THE CREST...OR PROLONG THE FLOODING.

..JAZ..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
457 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-101000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
457 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
MANY EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TRIBUTARY RIVERS. DETAILED
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT PRODUCT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HAASE

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IAZ040-041-051-052-100545-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1207 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE VINTON AND INDEPENDENCE AREAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1245 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN IOWA
     DELAWARE...BUCHANAN...BENTON AND LINN

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     AURORA...BRANDON...CENTER POINT...COGGON...DUNDEE...GARRISON...
     HAZLETON...INDEPENDENCE...LAMONT...MASONVILLE...MOUNT AUBURN...
     QUASQUETON...ROWLEY...SHELLSBURG...TROY MILLS...URBANA...
     VINTON...WALKER AND WINTHROP

AT 1202 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES EAST OF
HAZLETON TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BRANDON TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GARRISON...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OELWEIN TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF VINTON TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
VINTON...MOVING EAST AT 24 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH.

DUE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED CONDITION OF LOCAL SOILS...RAIN WITH
THESE STORMS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LE