River Flood Warning 75, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 AM CDT WED APR 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US QUICKLY SHIFTING
EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE...
07Z ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM ROSEAU MN /KROX/ TO
NORTH PLATTE NE /KLBF/ TO LIMON CO /KLIC/.  ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED
AND RADAR VAD WINDS AND PROFILER NETWORK INDICATE 850 MB LOW LEVEL
JET OF 60+ KTS FROM KS INTO IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS WIND SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.  THE RACE IS ON BETWEEN MIXING AND THE APPROACHING
FRONT.  AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS...GRADIENT WILL RELAX. IN THE
MEANTIME HOWEVER... SCREAMING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL OCCUR DURING
MIDDAY HOURS.  THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY EARLY FOR OPTIMUM
MIXING...HOWEVER...BELIEVE THAT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS ALOFT
WE SHOULD STILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA.  THUS WILL ISSUE WIND
ADVISORY TODAY...AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO CANCEL WHEN WINDS RELAX.
OTHERWISE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AROUND 70 AS
ADVERTISED. NEXT QUESTION IS PRECIP CHANCE TONIGHT.  HAVE REDUCED
POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT AS MOISTURE APPEARS LACKING ALONG THE
FRONT INITIALLY. ONCE THE FRONT SLOWS AND THE WAVE BEGINS TO LIFT
OUT...WELL...THATS A STORY FOR THURSDAY. ...33...

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UPCOMING SOAKING RAINS AT THE MINIMUM WILL AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING
FLOODING SITUATION.

STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OF 110 METERS AT KSLC LAST EVENING INDICATIVE OF
A STRONG SYSTEM TO IMPACT OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
EVENTUALLY THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLVES INTO A SOMEWHAT SLOW MOVING
STACKED LOW AS IT JOURNEYS ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATER
IN THE WEEKEND HENRYS RULE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM GETS KICKED INTO THE
SE U.S. AS A MAJOR UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
WILL USE THE ECMWF MODEL AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS ALSO FAVORED BY NCEP.

STILL LOOKS LIKE A SOAKING RAIN OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE GULF WAS JUST STARTING TO OPEN UP AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO WELL OVER AN INCH IN OUR
REGION. AS SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW...COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT BECOMES STATIONARY. THIS WILL SET UP POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING AND INCREASE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HAVE RAISED POPS AND MENTIONED SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS INSTABILITY
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT BETTER THAN EARLIER INDICATIONS. DEFORMATION
BAND OF RAIN NORTH OF THE SURFACE TO MID LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP POPS
GOING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. RAISED POPS
SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY ESPECIALLY OUR ILLINOIS COUNTIES. LATER SHIFTS
MAY HAVE TO HIT THE SHOWERS HARDER ON SATURDAY IF STACKED LOW IS
EVEN SLOWER. ALSO HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ON SATURDAY
WITH LOW CLOUDS HANGING OUT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAJOR TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
SIGNALS FROM THIS SYSTEM ALREADY SEEN LAST EVENING WITH 130 METER
HEIGHT FALLS IN ALASKA. INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ..HAASE..

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH 15Z.
BY 15Z SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR THE
SURFACE... DIMINISHING THE WIND SHEAR THREAT. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BRINGING AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. ..33..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR BENTON- BUCHANAN- CEDAR- CLINTON-
DELAWARE-DES MOINES- DUBUQUE- HENRY IA- IOWA- JACKSON- JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-JONES- KEOKUK-LEE- LINN- LOUISA- MUSCATINE- SCOTT-VAN
BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR BUREAU- CARROLL- HANCOCK- HENDERSON-
HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS- MCDONOUGH- MERCER- PUTNAM- ROCK ISLAND-
STEPHENSON-WARREN- WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR CLARK- SCOTLAND.

&&

33/21/33

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