River Flood Warning 61, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...
00Z RUN SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ROLLING LARGE
SPRING STORM SYSTEM/CUT-OFF UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY SEEN ON W/V
IMAGERY AND PRECIP PATTERNS ON REGIONAL 88D LOOPS SWIRLING OVER
THE NEB/IA BORDER...TO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA OVER SOUTHWEST
WI BY 00Z SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO NAG THE LOCAL AREA AS
IT CONTINUES TO GET SLOWED BY CANADIAN BLOCKING PATTERN...WITH THE
CENTER PROGGED NOT TO MAKE IT TO FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MI UNTIL 00Z
SUNDAY OR SO. TODAY/S HIGH TEMPS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING UNTIL
OCCLUDED CYCLONE STARTS TO COLD WRAP/ADVECT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAY STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH IN THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AT 12Z-13Z LOOKING AT CURRENT OB TRENDS...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND WITH STEADY TO SLOW
FALL THROUGH MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON. WILL WALK OUT CURRENT SPOKE OF
LIFT AND SCTRD CONVECTION/THUNDER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIRD JUST
AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING...WITH NEXT VORT SPOKE AND INSTABILITY SET-
UP AS COLD CORE UPPER LOW ITSELF ROTATES OVERHEAD GENERATING PLENTY
OF NEW SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THE
SHOWERS TO BE MORE NUMEROUS ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 CLOSER TO UPPER
LOW CENTER. WILL BANK ON BOUNDARY LAYER AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER LAYER
TO STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST MAY EXPERIENCE A RAIN-SNOW
MIX BY 3 PM CDT. EXTENT OF INSTABILITY AND COLD UPPER CORE MAY ALLOW
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS TO GENERATE SOME SMALL HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL MIXING SHOULD ALSO DRIVE WIND MACHINE AGAIN...WITH
BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLY APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES. GUSTS WILL BE ENHANCED IN PASSING SHOWERS WITH PRECIP-DRAG
MOMENTUM MIX DOWN EFFECT.

WITH NEXT LIFT-WING TONIGHT ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW AND COOLING
LLVLS...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
LAST INTO SAT MORNING. ADEQUATE DEEP LAYER SATURATION COMBINED WITH
LIFT SUGGESTS UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE DVN CWA BY 12Z SAT MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
SURFACES. SOME LOW TEMPS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CWA COULD DIP INTO THE
UPPER 20S BY EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE DVN FCST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THE CWA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER CYCLONE ON SAT WITH
VORT SPOKES AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DRIVING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE
MORNING SHOULD BE MAINLY SNOW CWA-WIDE...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
WITH ANY KIND OF BREAKS IN THE PRECIP ACTION MAY MAKE FOR A MIX IN
THE SOUTH HALF/SOUTH OF I80 SAT AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER INTO SAT EVENING ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RVR...WITH SOME
CLEARING FINALLY EXPECTED LATER ON SUNDAY. NO CHANGES PAST SUNDAY
FOR NOW.      ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRONG STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST IA
AND SOUTHERN WI TODAY AND TONIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS...LOW
CLOUDS...AND PERIODIC RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.  CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
1K-3K FT BY 15Z.  SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING UP
TO 30KTS.  VISIBILITIES OVER 6SM WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
BUT MAY BE REDUCED TO 3-5 SM DUE TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 16 AND
00Z AND AGAIN AFTER 06Z.    ..14..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE ADDED MARENGO TO THE MIX OF RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS...BUT WILL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ADDING THE SKUNK RIVER AT SIGOURNEY WITH THE
CREST LOOKING TO REACH JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
STAGES/LEVELS INTENTLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE FCST POINTS ON
THE DES MOINES RIVER ALSO LOOKING TO STAY JUST BELOW FS...BUT ARE
GETTING CLOSE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

12/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1220 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-110900-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
1220 PM CDT THU APR 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. TOTAL RAIN FALL FROM TODAY AND TONIGHT COULD
AMOUNT TO  1 TO 2 INCHES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH A LOWER
THREAT OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS WINDS.  THERE IS ALSO A LOW RISK OF
TORNADOES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...NEAR A WARM FRONT THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.

STRONG EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BUFFET THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.  EAST WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WILL GUST AT TIMES TO
AROUND 50 MPH.  SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WILL OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING FROM RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF
A LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO DUBUQUE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

MANY AREA RIVERS...INCLUDING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES...ARE EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. PLEASE NOTE THAT OUR
RIVER FORECASTS ARE BEING AFFECTED GREATLY BY FORECAST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. IF THE ACTUAL RAINFALL DIFFERS FROM THE
FORECAST RAINFALL...THEN THE RIVERS MAY RESPOND DIFFERENTLY THAN
WHAT THE FORECASTS INDICATE. PLEASE SEE OUR LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS
AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL REPORTS OVER 1 INCH WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

ERVIN/SHEETS/JAZ/DLF

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