River Flood Warning 45, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS TODAY... AND UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING.
STRONG WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT AIDED BY UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND RRQ OF JET TO FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVE... WITH HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WARM ADVECTION IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK IMPULSE
TRIGGERING INITIAL WAVE OF CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH ATTIM...
WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF CWA WHERE FLOOD WATCH
RESIDES. NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS OF KS/NE IN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
BLOSSOMING AND PROPAGATE NE INTO CWA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET VEERS INTO SFC WARM FRONT FROM NORTHERN MO THROUGH
CENTRAL IL. STRONG MOISTURE SURGE FEEDING THE STORMS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1 INCH AT 00Z FROM KS THROUGH MO
TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL... ROUGHLY 150-200% OF NORMAL. THUS...MAIN
THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN OF 1+ INCHES ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS
TRAINING. SOME THREAT OF HAIL WITH FEW OF THE STORMS THIS MORNING GIVEN
INCREASING SHEAR...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... BUT MUCAPE AOB
500 J/KG SUPPORTIVE OF MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL WITH POSSIBLY ISOLD LARGE
HAIL AROUND PENNY SIZE IN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN PLUME
OF BETTER INSTABILITY. MODELS STILL DIVERGING ON TRACK OF SFC CYCLONE
BUT INSPECTION OF PRESSURE FALLS SUGGESTS LIKELY PATH IN FAR NORTHWEST
CWA OR JUST WEST... THUS MOST... IF NOT ALL OF CWA LIKELY TO BE
PLACED IN THE WARM SECTOR EVENTUALLY. SFC WARM FRONT ATTIM BETWEEN
KEOKUK AND QUINCY WITH LARGE PRESSURE FALLS OVER EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN
IL SUPPORTIVE OF FRONT SURGING NORTH TODAY. THUS... MANY AREAS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWEST LIKELY TO SEE TEMPS CLIMB NR 60 OR WELL INTO
THE 60S. WITH THIS WARMTH WILL ALSO COME RISK OF SOME SEVERE TSTMS
THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE... WITH THE TWO MAIN AREAS TO WATCH BEING ALONG
WARM FRONT... AND AHEAD OF EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. AMPLE
SHEAR/STRONG WIND FIELDS AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL
THREAT. SFC BASED CONVECTION MUCH MORE CONDITIONAL/UNCERTAIN...
DEPENDENT ON SFC HEATING... BUT USING BLEP GIVE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS IF CAN ACHIEVE T/TD OF 68/60 WHICH YIELDS 53 KTS STRAIGHT LINE.
SFC BASED CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS SOME
FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS WITH BRN SHEAR VALUES
150+ M2/S2 AND 0-1/3 KM EHI VALUES OF 1.5-2. OTHER MAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS THIS AFTN/EVE WITH POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING. CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH NORTH HALF AS THIS AREA TO SEE
BRUNT OF 1-2 PUNCH BETWEEN WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT... FOLLOWED
BY LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG COLD FRONT. SOILS WET TO SATURATED IN
WATCH AREA WITH RIVERS RUNNING HIGH. FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL EXIST
THOUGH ACROSS ENTIRE CWA WITH ANY REPETATIVE CONVECTION. ALL OF THIS
CLEARS OUT THIS EVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
DRY MID LEVELS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE H85/H7 PRECLUDES MENTION OF PCPN
AFT 06Z. STILL PLENTY OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON SNOW CHCS
TUE... WITH GFS AND ECMWF BULLISH ON BRINGING MEASURABLE SNOW ALBEIT
LIGHT... INTO AT LEAST THE NORTH 1/3RD DURING THE DAY. FEELING IS
THIS MAY BE OVERDONE WITH DEEPER SATURATION AND SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM
ALONG/NORTH OF WEST-EAST SFC TROUGH AXIS FROM SD THROUGH MN INTO WI.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST MADE BEYOND TUE. GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET
TAKE BRUNT OF NEXT SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH LATE WEEK.

..05..

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK MCS HAS RESULTED IN MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS AT KCID/KDBQ. WIDELY
SCATTERED TSRA IN THE MCS HAVE IMPACTED EVERY TAF SITE EXCEPT KBRL.
WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI HAS REDUCED VSBYS TO 1SM AT
KBRL. IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST KANSAS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A
RESPECTABLE MCS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH SAID SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST. OVERALL...HIGH IMPACT WX EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 01/00Z. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE DAY. VCTS TO BE INCLUDED IN ALL 12Z TAFS.
..08..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ONLY POINT IN FLOOD IS JOSI4 ON THE ROCK WHICH SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. MANY RIVERS HAVE SIGNIFICANT
RISES FORECAST OR GO INTO FLOOD IN RESPONSE TO FORECASTED RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN
EXPECTED. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY NEW RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS
UNTIL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BECOME KNOWN OR BETTER DEFINED.    ..08..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-LINN-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.

&&

05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
515 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-011015-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
515 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR
WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS... WITH
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OF PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST IOWA...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDDAY OVER EASTERN
IOWA... AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN ADVANCE OF THE
WARM FRONT.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY THIS EVENING... WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT SURGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY MID EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF
HEATING OR DESTABILIZATION THAT OCCURS...THE POTENTIAL WILL
ALSO EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ON
CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WET OR SATURATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MONDAY MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RISES AND
ADDITIONAL FLOODING ON AREA TRIBUTARY RIVERS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE PECATONICA...WAPSIPINICON...ROCK...CEDAR AND IOWA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.

IAZ088-089-099-ILZ025-026-034-035-311330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
754 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 830 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN IOWA
     LEE...DES MOINES AND HENRY

IN ILLINOIS
     MCDONOUGH...HANCOCK...WARREN AND HENDERSON

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     BURLINGTON...FORT MADISON...AND MACOMB

AT 749 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALEM
TO WEST POINT...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MOUNT PLEASANT TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF CARTHAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD...AS WELL HAS HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

ERVIN

IAZ088-089-099-ILZ025-026-034-035-311400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
757 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

IN IOWA
     LEE...DES MOINES AND HENRY

IN ILLINOIS
     MCDONOUGH...HANCOCK...WARREN AND HENDERSON

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
     BURLINGTON...FORT MADISON...AND MACOMB

AT 749 AM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SALEM
TO WEST POINT...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MOUNT PLEASANT TO 12 MILES SOUTH OF CARTHAGE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OVER A HALF INCH OF RAIN IN A
SHORT PERIOD...AS WELL HAS HAIL UP TO A HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

ERVIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
809 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 AM     HAIL             FORT MADISON            40.62N 91.35W
03/31/2008  M0.25 INCH       LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

JH2

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