River Flood Warning 162, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER STORMY NIGHT IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THE NUMBER ONE CONCERN...AND DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS FROM AN EVOLVING MCS FROM THE ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY BLOSSOMING FROM NORTHEAST KS...TO WEST OF DSM. STILL MAY
BE A ISOLATED TORNADIC THREAT IF A SUPERCELL CAN MAINTAIN INTO THE
FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST DVN CWA LATER THIS EVENING...OR IF A STRONG
CELL CAN TAKE OFF ON OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW ORIENTED FROM W-E
JUST SOUTH OF I80 FROM NEAR SIGOURNEY...TO MONMOUTH/GALESBURG OVER
THE NEXT 1-4 HRS. THIS SUPPORTED BY LAPSE INDICATED CAPES OF 2500 TO
3500 ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AS WELL AS SIG TOR PARAMETERS
OF OVER 5. SO WOULD EXPECT A NEW TOR BOX SOON IN MUCH OF THE DVN AS
LLJ RE-ENERGIZES AND BACKS SOME THIS EVENING. THIS AREA ALSO IN IDEAL
PLACEMENT ON NORTHERN EDGE OF MID LEVEL CAP. WITH MID TEEN C H85 DPT
MOISTURE FEED CONTINUING UP ACRS THE FCST AREA...AGAIN ANY
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND WITH
THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT INCOMING FROM THE WEST OR DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD...AS WELL AS A SFC WAVE RIPPLING UP THE MAIN SFC FRONT
TRYING TO SQUEEZE SOUTHEASTWARD BUT STILL IN THE CWA ON MONDAY...
WILL EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHWEST THIRD THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...AND THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH
00Z TUE. FEEL THE HIGHER FFG IN WEST CENTRAL IL WILL STILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE OF BEING OVERCOME BY HEAVY CONVECTION AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS BY POSSIBLE TRAINING STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND MUCH OF
MONDAY. POTENTIAL OF MANY AREAS GETTING ANOTHER 1-3+ INCHES OF
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO LATE MON MORNING...WHICH WILL EXACERBATE
ONGOING RIVER FLOODING AND OF COURSE INITIATE FLASH FLOODING. WILL
KEEP SFC TEMPS HELD DOWN ON TUE BY THE RAIN...OUTFLOW AND OF COURSE
CLOUD COVER.

ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST LATER MON EVENING...THEN SHORT AND
SOME MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A DRY PERIOD POSSIBLE
THROUGH WED EVENING BEFORE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW RELOADS JUST TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR POSSIBLE STORM IMPINGEMENT WED NIGHT INTO
THU EVENING. FRONT THEN TO GET SHUNTED ACRS THE CWA FOR BETTER STORM
CHC WITH HEAVY RAIN AGAIN LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ZONAL FLOW MAY
BRING ALMOST A DAILY STORM THREAT OR EVERY OTHER DAY FOR THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S/UNLESS
STORM COOLED/ FROM WED ON...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 IN IOWA AND ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON...ACTING AS A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT BURLINGTON THIS AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS...
SOME VERY STRONG TO SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN
21Z AND 05Z. AFTER 05Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT ALL
SITES...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.  STORMS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD AT SITES AFTER 10Z TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING
MONDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS.    ..ERVIN..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY BUSY TODAY...HYDRO-WISE...WITH THREE CONFERENCE CALLS AND OTHER
COORDINATION EFFORTS. LAST NIGHT/S RAINFALL CAME IN HIGHER THAN WHAT
WAS PREDICTED IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE CEDAR AND IOWA RIVER BASINS
WERE HIT ESPECIALLY HARD. AS A RESULT...WE ARE NOW FORECASTING
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD FLOODING AT SIX FORECAST POINTS ON THE CEDAR
AND IOWA RIVERS.

ONE RELATED CONCERN IS THE FORECAST ACCURACY WITH RECORD OR NEAR
RECORD FLOODING. SINCE WE USE STAGE-DISCHARGE RELATIONSHIPS TO
FORECAST THE RIVERS...THESE RELATIONSHIPS BECOME UNCERTAIN AT HIGH
STAGES BECAUSE...BY DEFINITION...THESE STAGES HAVE EITHER NEVER BEEN
SEEN OR HAVE NOT BEEN SEEN IN A LONG TIME. WE ARE WORKING WITH THE
U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY TO COLLABORATE ON THESE STAGE-DISCHARGE
RELATIONSHIPS.

FLASH FLOOD THREAT ALSO CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAIN...BEYOND THE RAIN RECEIVED THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...IS POSSIBLE
WITH VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE. ANY INTENSE THUNDERSTORM OR TRAINING
OF STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE
SEVERITY OF THE CURRENT FLOODING SITUATION. AM ESPECIALLY CONCERNED
BECAUSE IT APPEARS LIKE THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE
MORE RAINFALL THAN THE QPF INDICATED. THUS...RIVER FORECASTS MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING OR ON MONDAY.

..JAZ..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LINN. FLASH FLOOD
     WATCH NOW IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR JO DAVIESS...NOW IN
     EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

12/ERVIN/JAZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
445 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-091000-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
445 AM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS OVER 70 MPH...BUT LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD EVENT IS SHAPING UP ON MONDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA...WESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL
SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. AT LEAST SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON MANY EASTERN IOWA TRIBUTARY
RIVERS...WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM DUBUQUE SOUTHWARD. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN
THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT PRODUCT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAASE

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