River Flood Warning 142, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
425 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

.UPDATE...
MONITORING RECENT RADAR TRENDS...FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE SE CWFA APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED. BULK OF MCS CLUSTERS MOVING
OUT OF S CENTRAL IA ARE DISSIPATING AT THE SOUTHERN END AND
LIFTING NORTHEAST. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WERE SEEN IN ELEVATED CONVECTION RIDING NE ACROSS NE MO INTO W
CENTRAL IL...WHERE WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS ON LAPSE SOUNDINGS
WAS INCREASING THE CAP. HAVE UPDATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO REMOVE
FAR SE IA...NE MO AND ALL BUT FAR NW IL. EVEN IF STORMS DO DEVELOP
OR INCREASE INTO THIS AREA...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE
AND LESS PRONE TO TRAINING OF STORM COMPLEXES THAT HAS BEEN SEEN
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. E CENTRAL IA INTO FAR NW IL STILL
LOOKS TO BE AT GREATEST RISK FOR SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING AND
CONTINUE WATCH THERE THROUGH 10 AM. ..SHEETS..

&&

.AVIATION...
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA MVNG RAPIDLY NE THROUGH KCID AND KDBQ EARLY
THIS MORNING. STORMS OVER SCNTRL IA MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENUF TO
IMPACT KMLI/KBRL IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS WITH TSRA AND WND GUSTS LIKELY 35 TO 45KTS. WARMING MID
LEVELS THIS MORNING SHOULD DECREASE TSRA THREAT FOR KBRL AFTER 15Z
AND AT KMLI AFT 18Z. TSRA THREAT AT KMLI/KBRL SHOULD BE LOW THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM FRONT APPEARS TO STALL
JUST S OF KCID AND KDBQ THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTS AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA TO REMAIN NEAR THOSE TAFS SITES THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT TO PUSH N OF KCID/KDBQ DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BREAK IN THE TSRA
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE
TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL IA LATE TONIGHT...MAY MAKE
IT INTO KCID AFTER 06Z. ...DLF..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-JO
     DAVIESS-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON.

MO...NONE.
&&

SHEETS/DLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
549 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-061100-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
549 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2008

...MODERATE SEVERE WEATHER RISK FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM STERLING ILLINOIS TO KEOKUK IOWA. THE
GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE
FORM OF DAMAGING WIND...WITH A LESSER POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES. ON-GOING STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT THE
AREA LATE THIS MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. PLEASE SEE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS FORECAST A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE IOWA TO MEMPHIS
MISSOURI. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR AREAS WEST OF THIS LINE.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON MANY EASTERN IOWA
TRIBUTARY RIVERS...WITH MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
FROM GLADSTONE SOUTHWARD. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
IN THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENT PRODUCT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

SHEETS

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