River Flood Warning 133, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
344 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KS EAST
THROUGH NRN MO INTO CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL MCS/S
HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW. MCS ON THE FRONT OVER SRN IA/NERN MO/CNTRL IL AND
JUST EAST OF SFC LOW IN WRN MO WERE BEING FUELED BY 50-60KT H8 JET
AND H8 DEWPOINTS AROUND 15C POOLED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC
BOUNDARY. SERN SD MCS APPEARS TIED TO MCV.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ACTIVE WX EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. TSRA EXPECT TO
CONTINUE OVER SRN CWA UNTIL H8 JET VEERS AND SUBSIDES BETWEEN 12Z
AND 15Z. MEANWHILE MCS OVER SERN SD/NW IA SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIVE
SE ALONG STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT. CURRENT TIMING SUGGESTS IT
WILL REACH THE WRN CWA BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z. BASED ON THIS TIMING
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF TSRA WILL BE THIS MORNING. BY THIS
AFTERNOON...AIRMASS SHOULD BE PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER TO LIMIT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO SCATTERED ELEVATED TSRA. THIS EVENING
MID-LEVEL TROF APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD PROVIDE SUPPORT
FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CLOSE TO THE
BOUNDARY IN NRN MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL WITH SRN IA ON THE NRN
FRINGE. PLENTY OF CAPE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT A DECENT
SEVERE THREAT IN THE FAR SOUTH...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MS RIVER.
HEAVY RAINS ON GOING OVER OUR NE MO AND W CNTRAL IL COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...MAY SET THE STAGE FOR A FLASH FLOOD THREAT LATE
TODAY/THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THE
NEED FOR A WATCH SINCE A LOT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE OUTFLOWS SET
UP THIS AFTERNOON. ...DLF...

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN CWFA BORDER WED
MORNING IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTH TO AT LEAST I-80 CORRIDOR DURING
THE DAY. BACKING FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OUT
WEST WILL HELP THIS PROCESS ALONG. GFS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES
SUPPORTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS ALONG THIS NORTHWARD LIFTING
WARM FRONT AND SPC HAS ENTIRE AREA IN DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK. HAVE CHANCE
POPS OVER ENTIRE AREA...ALTHOUGH WARM H7 TEMPERATURES ADVECTING INTO
AREA MAY CAP CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SHOWN TO
SHIFT NORTH AND BECOME SW-NE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW.
HAVE KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CLOSEST TO THIS BOUNDARY IN
THIS TIME FRAME...WITH VERY LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE SOUTH AND
SE WHERE WARM AIR AT H7 MAY CAP THINGS. MAIN UPPER WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL PLAINS FRI WITH ONE OR MORE SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVES OUT AHEAD TRIGGERING MCS ACTIVITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
THU NIGHT. FOCUSING ON THIS FORCING...HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE WEST
THU NIGHT...THEN OVER MOST OF CWFA FRI. BRIEF BOUT OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING AND H8 MOISTURE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD SHOULD LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SAT AND REMOVED CHANCES SAT. ANOTHER LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS RESETS THE ACTIVE SW FLOW
PATTERN FOR SUN INTO MON WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ELEVATED
MOISTURE RETURN SAT NIGHT. ..SHEETS..

&&

.AVIATION...
GENEARLLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF TSRA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH GREATEST TSRA THREAT AT KBRL WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER NRN MO. THIS MORNING TSRA OVER SERN
IA/NERN MO SHOULD DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. SCATTERED SHRA/-TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE FOCUS MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. INCREASING NELY
SFC WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL DRY OUT LOWER LEVELS WHICH
PUSH THE TSRA THREAT SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ...DLF...

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO COUNTIES AND FAR SE IA INTO W
CENTRAL IL OVERNIGHT HAVE LIKELY RESULTED IN SEVERAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AREA CLOSELY WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TODAY...TONIGHT AND LATER THIS WEEK. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN
IS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR...WHICH WILL BE IN MORE FAVORABLE AREA
FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. LAST ROUND OF RIVER
FORECASTS HAD SIGNIFICANT RISES EXPECTED ON THE SKUNK...
ENGLISH...FOX AND LA MOINE RIVERS BY LATE TODAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TODAY COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING ON THE IOWA...WAPSI...AND
CEDAR RIVERS. PORTIONS OF THE MS RIVER FROM GLADSTONE SOUTHWARD
COULD SEE RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE OVER NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IF
HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED RIVER BASINS.
..SHEETS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

DLF/SHEETS/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
515 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-041015-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
515 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
FREEPORT...CEDAR RAPIDS...WILLIAMSBURG LINE THIS MORNING. THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WITH A MODERATE RISK INPLACE
SOUTH OF A KAHOKA MISSOURI...ROSEVILLE ILLINOIS LINE.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE HEAVY RAINS WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. THE STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

A CLUSTER THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA THIS MORNING
WILL SPREAD INTO EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI BY MID MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
THEY MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...BUT ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS IN
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF PENNY/S. HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA...NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THESE STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE IN EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND...HEAVY RAIN...AND LARGE HAIL. THIS RISK IS GREATEST WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE MORE SPECIFIC TIMING...LOCATIONS...
AND THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SEVERAL EASTERN IOWA
TRIBUTARIES THIS WEEK. THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION.
ANY HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURS WILL LIKELY PROLONG THE ONGOING FLOODING
OR CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING ON AREA TRIBUTARIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

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