River Flood Warning 118, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
510 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.UPDATE...
TORNADO WATCH 363 WAS EXPANDED INTO CLARK AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST MO AROUND 430 PM. AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC DECIDED TO
INCLUDE CLARK AND SCOTLAND COUNTIES IN THE TOR WATCH TO FILL IN THE
GAP WITH SVR WATCH TO OUR SOUTH. UPDATED WCN AND ZFP WERE SENT AT
THAT TIME.  ...DLF...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AT MID DAY THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM ERN SD THROUGH SCNTRL NE
WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM WRN MN THROUGH ERN IA. TEMPS
IN THE WARM SECTOR WERE WELL INTO THE 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WHICH WERE YIELDING SBCAPES OVER 4000 J/KG
AND LITTLE IF ANY CAP. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE WARM
SECTOR HAS PRODUCED A BROAD SWATH OF CU. MORE STABLE AIR WAS FOUND
EAST OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE STRATUS WAS HOLDING TEMPS BACK IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY...
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND RESULTING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE CWFA THEN
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT TSRA
TO DEVELOP AND LINE UP OVER WESTERN IA/SCNTRL MN WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN AREA WERE CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AND THEN PUSH EAST
INTO THE CWFA...PROBABLY AFTER 00Z. EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO BE
LIMITED TO ABOUT THE NW 1/3 OF THE CWFA AND CONFINED TO THE
EVENING HOURS. BASED ON 18Z DVN SOUNDING WITH NEARLY LINEAR WINDS
AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WOULD EXPECT SEVERE THREAT TO BE
PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ALTHOUGH THE WIND
THREAT SHOULD BE MAINLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. ALSO LATEST RUC FCST WAS SHOWING 0-1KM
HELICITIES INCREASING ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 20...SO AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN/T BE RULED OUT IN THE FAR NORTH IF THE TSRA MAKE IT
INTO THIS AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FOCUS WILL TURN TO HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN 1/3 OF THE
CWFA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM 06Z THROUGH
18Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD MCS DEVELOPING OVER NERN KS
ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ LATE THIS EVENING AND MOVING EAST AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE ORGANIZED HEAVIER
RAINS MAY FALL A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I80. TSRA SHOULD WEAKEN
MONDAY MORNING AS LLJ SHUTS DOWN. WITH BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
THOUGH...WOULD EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. ...DLF...

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION.  GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATERS RANGING
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS OVER
NIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  WITH A DEEPLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT SERVING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION...
THUNDERSTORMS SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP.
MODEL DATA INDICATE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
MOST AT RISK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN.  THEREFORE WE HAVE CONTINUED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS REGION THROUGH 1 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF/GFS PROG THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH TO NEAR SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 12Z TUESDAY.  THE MODELS SHOW A
1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND DRY OUT
THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH SUNNY SKIES AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS PROG A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. NEXT
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. ...KUHL...

&&

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL SCOUR OUT THE MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CIGS AND VSBYS. AFTER
00Z EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EARLY. SCT TO BKN LINE OF TSRA
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL IA AND IMPACT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI
MAINLY BTWN 01Z AND 05Z. ISOLATED SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KCID AND KDBQ. LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST ALONG IA/MO BORDER AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING IN
PERIODS MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT MOST TAF SITES. THUNDERSTORM
THREAT SHOULD DECREASE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-KEOKUK-LEE-
     LOUISA-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-WARREN.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

DLF/KUHL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
133 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-261000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
133 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 6 PM. THE
AREA MOST AT RISK IS WEST OF A LINE FROM FREEPORT ILLINOIS TO
SIGOURNEY IOWA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS OF UP TO 70 MPH...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

LATE TONIGHT A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL INTERACT WITH
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS ALOFT ARE
FAVORABLE FOR STORMS TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS TRAINING OF
STORMS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE AREA MOST AT RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SIGOURNEY IOWA TO ALEDO
ILLINOIS.

WITHIN THIS AREA...GENERAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE EXACT LOCATION CANNOT BE DETERMINED...A NARROW CORRIDOR
OF 3 INCHES OR MORE IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SIGOURNEY TO ALEDO LINE
THROUGH 1 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-80.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OF AN INCH OR MORE...
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING AND RENEWED FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WITH PENNY SIZED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 50 MPH THE PRIMARY RISK.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80 OUTLOOKED FOR
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. CONDITIONS REMAIN
TOO UNCLEAR TO ASSESS ANY SEVERE RISK OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 6 PM THIS EVENING. REPORTS OF
RAINFALL OVER ONE HALF INCH ARE APPRECIATED.

08/NICHOLS/KUHL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1258 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NEW VIENNA              42.55N 91.11W
05/26/2008  E4.00 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ESTIMATED AMOUNT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
100 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1247 AM     TSTM WND DMG     YARMOUTH                41.03N 91.32W
05/26/2008                   DES MOINES         IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TELEPHONE UTILITY POLE DOWN ON 205 AVE PARTIALLY BLOCKING
            ROAD. SOUTH OF H38

&&

TS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
108 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 S ROCK FALLS          41.69N 89.69W
05/26/2008                   WHITESIDE          IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN, BUILDING DAMAGED AND LIVESTOCK MISSING

&&

TS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
123 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSE CEDAR RAPIDS      41.95N 91.66W
05/26/2008  M1.45 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL.

&&

BILLN

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