River Flood Warning 116, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
238 AM CST SUN MAY 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN IMPRESSIVE...STRONG WINTER CYCLONE HYBRID WITH SUMMER
CHARACTERISTICS IS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS STORM IS ESSENTIALLY A LIQUID BLIZZARD...WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE LOW TRACK...AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HIGH WINDS OCCURRING ALONG AND BEHIND THE LOW. A
STRONG DEF ZONE IS OCCURRING AT 2 AM...GENERALLY OVER EASTERN
IOWA...WELL NORTH OF YESTERDAYS 12Z GUIDANCE.  A DEVELOPING DEF ZONE
IS GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE DOMINANT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BANDED STRUCTURE TO RAIN AMOUNTS...WITH A MAX
FROM AROUND FAIRFIELD...UP THROUGH LINN COUNTY...TO WESTERN DUBUQUE
COUNTY...AND ANOTHER FORMING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THIS FROM WASHINGTON
THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...TO NEAR PUTNAM COUNTY.  THE 12KM NAM SEEMS
TO CAPTURE THIS NORTHWEST BAND QUITE WELL...AND IF IT VERIFIES...WE
WILL LIKELY SEE THE MAX QPF IN THIS THIS AREA.  IN GENERAL BOTH OF
THESE BANDS SHOULD SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS. FARTHER
SOUTHEAST...MORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS HAVE
OCCURRED...WITH LESS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS IN THE 0.5 TO 1.5
RAIN...STILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT.  WITH THE ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FLOOD WATCH EARLY TODAY.

WINDS HAVE REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA WHERE NORTH WINDS HAVE
DEVELOPED WEST TO THE SURFACE LOW.  THESE WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED 30 MPH LIKELY...AND GUST TO 45
TO 50 MPH QUITE POSSIBLE. THROUGH THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BACK OFF
FROM THESE LEVELS WELL IN ADVANCE OF OUR WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRATION...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE WIND HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME.

BEYOND THIS STORM SYSTEM...WE SHOULD SEE COOL WEATHER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY...AND THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
TONIGHT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING APPEAR QUIET MILD AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SOME DRYING.  HOWEVER...BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH AMOUNTS
YET TO BE DETERMINED.   WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE
DRY...WITH SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK EXPECTED.
..ERVIN..
&&
.AVIATION...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST IA BRINGING WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR TO OCNL LIFR CONDITIONS TO ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. THE RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS
MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST AND END BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
TRACKS EASTWARD. NORTH WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE INTENSE STORM
SYSTEM WILL HOWL AT 25-35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 KNOTS. THE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MUCH LIGHTER
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR
LESS BY 06Z.

..HAASE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

ERVIN/JH2

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>