Alert archive / Iowa / Flash Flood Warnings in 2008

Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Quad Cities, IA

July 27, 2008Jefferson County, Van Buren County, Iowa

NWS Quad Cities, IA issued this flash flood warning at Jul 27, 2008, 7:34 PM CDT for Jefferson County, Van Buren County, Iowa. It was in force for 3 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 27, 2008, 7:34 PM CDT (00:34 UTC)
Expired: Jul 27, 2008, 10:29 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Quad Cities, IA
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Jefferson County, IA, Van Buren County, IA

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 141 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 27, 7:37 PM CDT	FLASH FLOOD	Fairfield, IA	SEVERAL STREETS IN TOWN FLOODED WITH CARS STALLED OUT AND PEOPLE SWIMMING IN THE STREETS.
Jul 27, 8:00 PM CDT	HEAVY RAIN 2	Farmington, IA	APPROXIMATELY 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM WITH LOCAL MINOR STREET FLOODING OBSERVED.
Jul 27, 8:30 PM CDT	FLASH FLOOD	Fairfield, IA	FLASH FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF FAIRFIELD ENDED AT THIS TIME.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 3 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 147 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 566 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -77 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1193 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 49 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KDVN 280036
FFWDVN
IAC101-177-280630-
/O.NEW.KDVN.FF.W.0061.080728T0034Z-080728T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
734 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FAIRFIELD...
  VAN BUREN COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF KEOSAUQUA...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 728 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED HEAVY RAINS HAVE 
FLOODED HIGHWAY 1 IN JEFFERSON COUNTY SOUTH OF FAIRFIELD.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PLEASANT   
PLAIN...PACKWOOD...LOCKRIDGE...LIBERTYVILLE...BATAVIA...AND ABINGDON.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF FLOOD-PRONE
AND LOW LYING AREAS. MOVE IMMEDIATELY FROM THESE AREAS TO HIGHER
GROUND.

DO NOT DRIVE ON FLOODED ROADS. MOST FATALITIES OCCUR IN VEHICLES
SWEPT AWAY IN FLOOD WATERS AS SHALLOW AS 1 FOOT.

LAT...LON 4115 9217 4115 9172 4060 9173 4060 9174
      4061 9174 4060 9218

$$

WOLF

2 follow-up statements

000 
WGUS73 KDVN 280328
FFSDVN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1026 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

IAC101-177-280336-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-080728T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VAN BUREN IA-JEFFERSON IA-
1026 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR JEFFERSON AND VAN
BUREN COUNTIES...

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL IOWA XOULD MOVE INTO THE 
AREA AND CAUSED PROBLEMS LATER TONIGHT...THE IMMEDIATE THREAT FROM 
FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED.  THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR 
JEFFERSON AND VAN BUREN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4115 9217 4115 9172 4060 9173 4061 9174
      4060 9218

$$

WOLF

000 
WGUS73 KDVN 280329 CCA
FFSDVN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1026 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

IAC101-177-280336-
/O.CAN.KDVN.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-080728T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VAN BUREN IA-JEFFERSON IA-
1026 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR JEFFERSON AND VAN
BUREN COUNTIES...

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN CENTRAL IOWA COULD MOVE INTO THE 
AREA AND CAUSED PROBLEMS LATER TONIGHT...THE IMMEDIATE THREAT FROM 
FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED.  THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR 
JEFFERSON AND VAN BUREN HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4115 9217 4115 9172 4060 9173 4061 9174
      4060 9218

$$

WOLF

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 27, 2:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 2:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 49 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
245 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WILL BE CONCISE AS STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE MCS TO ARRIVE LATE PM
AS SPC IN PROCESS OF ISSUING WATCH.  NOWCAST TOOLS SHOW MODERATE TO
STRONG MCS TO IMPACT AREA...ESPECIALLY SW 2/3 TO 3/4 CWA WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME SEVERE RISK SW SECTIONS.  SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY AM DUE TO COOL POOL AND BACK-BUILDING.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES SUGGEST FORWARDING PROPAGATING MCS WITH
SOME BOWING SEGMENTS AND POSSIBLE ASYMMETRICAL VORTEX WITH HIGHEST
QPF +/- 40 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A VINTON TO MACOMB LINE.  RAIN TOTALS
1/2 UP TO 3 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED MOST/ALL CWA WITH RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING LATE EVENING TO PASS TO EVENING SHIFT TO CONSIDER
ALONG HEAVY RAIN AXIS. LOW TO MODERATE END SEVERE RISK WITH MAIN RISK
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO POSSIBLY UP TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG AND SW OF AFOREMENTIONED HEAVY RAIN AXIS. MONDAY...HIGHS MAY
NEED LOWERING WITH CLOUDS AND BACK-BUILDING A CONCERN. IF BACK-
BUILDING AND COOL POOL INTERACTION OCCURS...6 PLUS INCH AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE WITH SYSTEM.  ..NICHOLS..

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT WE WILL SEE AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY. RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF DOLLY
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S FOR A VERY MUGGY COUPLE OF DAYS. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 2.3 INCHES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS HINT
THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING SOMEWHERE IN OUR REGION. EXACT AREA OF THE REGION AND HOW
IT MAY IMPACT THE DVN CWA STILL NOT RESOLVED AND THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED. ANY PREVIOUS MCS EVENTS THAT SATURATE THE GROUND PRIOR
TO THE ARRIVAL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL. THEN CONFIDENCE LOWERS AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF ANY SHORT WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

NEXT WEEKEND...12Z ECMWF/GFS DEEPENS IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-SOUTH. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO ABOUT
12C OVER OUR REGION FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR AND LOWER
HUMIDITIES. USING 12Z MEX GUIDANCE BUT EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES MAY
BE TOO HIGH DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER. OF COURSE THIS DOMINATE
NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE PATTERN WE HAVE SEEN ALL SUMMER AND SEE NO
REASON TO DISCOUNT IT. IN FACT TELECONNECTIONS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN
WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT WELL INTO AUGUST.   ..HAASE..

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO GIVE WAY TO MVR TO IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 23Z AND
08Z WITH PERIODS OF +TSRA/+SHRA WITH LARGE MCS SYSTEM. PREDOMINATE
MVR TO LOCALLY IFR TO CONTINUE INTO MORNING DUE TO CIGS 1-4K AGL WITH
SCATTERED LINGERING TSRA/SHRA.  PARTIAL CLEARING AND VFR INTO
AFTERNOON WITH NEXT MCS IMPACTING TERMINALS LATE PM.  ..NICHOLS..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

NICHOLS/HAASE

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 27, 4:32 AM CDT, 15 hours 2 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
432 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-280945-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
432 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT MAY PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

ONE OR MORE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A LESSER RISK OF LARGE HAIL. LOCAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND
AGAIN ON SATURDAY. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS MIGHT
PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. MONDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THIS WILL CREATE A RISK OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHEETS/LE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 27, 7:11 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
711 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W RUTLEDGE            40.31N 92.13W
07/27/2008  E60 MPH          SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 700 PM AND 705 PM WERE ESTIMATED TO BE
            OVER 60 MPH. HEAVY RAIN BEGAN AROUND 706 PM.

&&

14

Local storm report, Jul 27, 7:15 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
715 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEMPHIS                 40.46N 92.17W
07/27/2008                   SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS BRANCHES NEARLY 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWN. WIND
            ESTIMATED AT 60-70 MPH. POWER OUT IN THE CITY OF MEMPHIS.
            RAINFALL OF OVER AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES.

&&

JH2

Local storm report, Jul 27, 7:15 PM CDT, 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
715 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEMPHIS                 40.46N 92.17W
07/27/2008                   SCOTLAND           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS BRANCHES NEARLY 3 INCHES IN DIAMTER DOWN. WIND
            ESTIMATED AT 60-70 MPH. POWER OUT IN THE CITY OF MEMPHIS.
            RAINFALL OF OVER AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES.

&&

JH2

Local storm report, Jul 27, 7:23 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
723 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNE KEOSAUQUA         40.77N 91.94W
07/27/2008                   VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL TREE LIMBS DOWN. UNKNOWN SIZE.

&&

JH2

Local storm report, Jul 27, 7:25 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
725 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE KEOSAUQUA         40.77N 91.94W
07/27/2008  M1.50 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SMALL STREAMS AND DITCHES BANKFULL. CONSIDERABLE PONDING
            OF WATER IN YARDS AND FIELDS. RAINFALL OF 1.50 INCHES IN
            LESS THAN AN HOUR.

&&

JH2

Local storm report, Jul 27, 7:34 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
734 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W SUTTER              40.28N 91.43W
07/27/2008  E70 MPH          HANCOCK            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO BE 70 MPH ON COUNTY ROAD 12 WEST
            OF SUTTER.

&&

14

The office that day

Everything else NWS Quad Cities, IA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 27, 7:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Lee	54 min
Jul 27, 7:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	DVN	Des Moines, Lee	63 min
Jul 27, 7:50 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Des Moines, Henry, Lee, Van Buren	3 hr
Jul 27, 8:29 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	DVN	Keokuk	48 hr
Jul 27, 8:29 PM CDT	River Flood Warning	DVN	Lee	4 days
Jul 27, 8:49 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	DVN	Van Buren	6 hr
Jul 28, 9:09 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	DVN	Lee, Van Buren	68 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Iowa, 2008 Every flash flood warning in 2008

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.