Blizzard Watch 1, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO NW KS WILL BE
BLASTING INTO THE OUR REGION THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER MAJOR
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE MIDWEST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AT ABOUT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN ROLLS ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DANGEROUS WINTER CONDITIONS APPROACHING HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH FOR ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 FOR GROUND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STRONG ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY
BLASTING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS TO NW KS. NW WINDS ARE HOWLING BEHIND THE
FRONT TO NEAR 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH GLASGOW MT AT
08Z REPORTING A TEMPERATURE OF -21F. DECENT FALL/RISE COUPLET
DEVELOPING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKING AT THE ISALOBARIC ANALYSIS.
NEGATIVELY TILT DEEP TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
PROVIDING UPPER DYNAMICS BUT MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LACKING AS
PRECIPITABLE WATERS PROGGED TO ONLY ABOUT .30 INCH. SO WILL FORECAST
ABOUT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS MORNING IN THE NW CWA AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TONIGHT IN
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS OUR
REGION. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW EVENT ENDS THE WIND WILL REALLY CRANK
UP WITH 850 MB WINDS PROGGED TO OVER 50 KNOTS. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
REV UP TO SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. CORE
OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURE OF -28C WILL SPREAD
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. COMBINE THE NEW SNOW FALL
WITH THE HEAVY SNOW THAT FELL THURSDAY NIGHT...ADD THE HIGH WINDS
AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...AND YOU HAVE THE RECIPE FOR A VERY
DANGEROUS SITUATION. WILL CONVERT WINTER STORM WATCH TO A BLIZZARD
WATCH FOR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR FOR GROUND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE
ALSO ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR LIKELIHOOD OF CRITERIA REACHING
WIND CHILL WARNINGS ACROSS THE NORTH. HAVE ALSO ISSUED WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES LATE
TONIGHT WILL HAVE FALLEN BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
..HAASE..

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
...DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL GROUND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...

MODEL INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH GFS MOST CONSISTENT
WITH 00Z NAM-WRF AND H-RES ECMWF CLOSEST ON INTENSITY OF APPROACHING
ARCTIC. FORECAST BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF ARCTIC AIR INVASION WITH
THERMAL FIELDS NAM-WRF AND HI-RES ECMWF AND GFS FOR OTHER PARAMETERS
INTO MONDAY.  THEN GFS PRIMARY GUIDANCE TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...CONTINUE BLIZZARD AND WIND CHILL WATCH AS
DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. THIS COULD BE OUR COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REACH ZERO WITH
EXTENDED PERIODS OF FLURRIES...SNOW SHOWERS AND STRONG NW WINDS OF 25
TO 45 MPH WILL RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT RISK OF GROUND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR WHERE SNOW
FIELD IS SEVERAL INCHES DEEP.  PATCHY TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW SOUTH
OF THIS LINE WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT DUE TO WIND CHILLS OF
-20 TO 25F.  LOCAL TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WIND
CHILL WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WITH
WIND CHILLS OF -30 TO -35F.  REMARKABLE ISSUE IS BASED ON UPSTREAM
TEMPERATURES IN ARCTIC AIR MASS...MANY LOCATIONS COULD STILL BE UP TO
5 DEGREES TOO MILD FOR DAY SHIFT TO ASSESS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 20 MPH BUT CLEARING SKIES SUPPORT MINS STILL
FALLING RAPIDLY TO -5 TO -15F RANGE WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR -20F OR
COLDER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. EXTENDED WIND CHILL
ADVISORY INTO MONDAY DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILL WARNING
CRITERIA REMAINING POSSIBLE IN NW LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT ALSO TO BE
REVIEWED.  MONDAY...ARCTIC HIGH OVERHEAD WILL LIMIT HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH NEAR ZERO READINGS NORTH 1/3 WITH SOME BELOW ZERO
HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL POSSIBLE.  WILL HIT BLIZZARD RISK AND
DANGEROUS COLD IN HEADLINED HWO PRODUCT DUE TO DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST WITH EVENING LOWS
THEN RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT.  ADDED OVERNIGHT POPS WEST 1/2 AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR LIGHT SNOW. TUESDAY...
GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOWS HIGHS WELL INTO 20S WITH NEAR
FREEZING READING IN SOUTH WITH AREAS OF SNOW AS NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.  UPPED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WITH SOME RISK OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION OF SLEET AND SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 IN
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. NEXT ARCTIC FRONT TO PASS TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT STRENGTH NOT NEAR AS COLD AS WEEKEND SYSTEM.  CONCERN BASED ON
ANALYSIS THIS SYSTEM COULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENT SOLUTIONS IF
UPPER ENERGY AGAIN PHASES WITH STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OF ARCTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SOUTH...THIS SHOULD BE RESOLVED NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AGAIN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WITH MAX AND MIN
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY A FEW DEGREES STILL TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS
TO CONSIDER.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO CHANGES MADE BUT SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW
WITH DEEP PACIFIC COAST TROUGH SUPPORT ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR DAY SHIFT TO EVALUATE. LARGE SCALE JET
STRUCTURE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A WARMER SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE RAIN
THAN SNOW WITH FURTHER NORTH TRACK.   ..NICHOLS..

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OCNL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ. ARCTIC FRONT
WITH VERY STRONG NW WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD
BLOWING SNOW AND POTENTIAL FOR GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. NW WINDS SUSTAINED 20-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER
40 KNOTS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.     ..HAASE..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-LINN.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR CEDAR-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-
     LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.

     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     CARROLL-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR BUREAU-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
     FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

HAASE/NICHOLS

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