Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
247 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER 80S...AND
SURFACE DEW POINTS HOVERING AROUND 60 DEGREES...INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH LEAD COLD POOL DOMINANT
CONVECTION OVER WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN TENDING TO BACK BUILD TO THE
SOUTHWEST...TOWARD THE GREATER INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY
WAS NOTED OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WHERE MLCAPES OF 3000 J/KG WERE
NOTED. WITH SHARP/DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS MOIST AXIS (PW VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES/850-700 MB THETA-E RIDGE) AND FRONTAL FORCING GETS GOING.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE DEPENDENT
ON THE REMNANT MCV OVER THE MIDWEST...WHICH IS BECOMING ABSORBED
WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. 12Z KDVN SOUNDING CERTAINLY SHOWED
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AS 850 MB DEW POINT CAME IN AT 16 C.
HOWEVER...ANY ORGANIZED COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY MAY TEND TO DISRUPT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT OR LEAD TO MID
LEVEL WARMING DUE TO THE LATENT HEAT RELEASE...LIMITING OUR LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY. CERTAINLY NEED TO RESPECT THE STRONG WIND
FIELDS...AS THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR RAMPS UP DURING THE EVENING HOURS
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN (35-55 KNOTS).

&&

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST LOWER LATE TONIGHT...
BUT WILL KEEP SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT POPS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT
FOR LINGERING CONVECTION. OTHERWISE... LOOK FOR A VERY QUIET AND
MILD PERIOD RIGHT THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAV TEMPS LOOK
PRETTY REASONABLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVER THE WATER AND MADE SOME
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS THERE. REALLY NOT ANY MAJOR FORECAST CONCERNS
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. GFS AGAIN LOOKS OVERLY VIGOROUS ON THE NEXT WAVE
AND BRINGS A 996 LOW INTO THE STRAITS BY 06Z TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING LOOKS GENERALLY OK... HAVE SHADED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE
WEAKER AND FASTER ECMWF. STILL... HAVE BROUGHT POPS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH 25 KNOTS ALONG
NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEPTH CONTINUING TO INCREASE...STILL THINK WE WILL SEE A FEW GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND THEN NORTH TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SMALL WAVES EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 102 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

AVIATION...

SLOWLY BUT STEADILY SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN PICKING UP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS REACHING AND EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS...
CONTINUING DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...AS COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
UNTIL STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKES PLACE LATE TONIGHT...CLEARING
US OUT FOR TOMORROW MORNING. SHOULD SEE A TOUCH OF DIURNAL LOW CU
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE
HURON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT
     HURON INCLUDING SAGINAW BAY...UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.

MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
313 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

MIZ053-054-060-061-068-022115-
GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-SAGINAW-SHIAWASSEE-TUSCOLA-
313 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2008

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 311 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 38 MILES WEST OF ST.
CHARLES TO 60 MILES WEST OF LANSING...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL OR LARGER...WINDS GREATER THAN 40
MPH...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MERRILL BY 355 PM EDT...
  ST. CHARLES BY 415 PM EDT...
  BRIDGEPORT AND OAKLEY BY 430 PM EDT...
  LAINGSBURG BY 440 PM EDT...
  OWOSSO AND FRANKENMUTH BY 445 PM EDT...
  NEW LOTHROP AND MONTROSE BY 450 PM EDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.

SC /