Severe Thunderstorm Warning 502, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WL WSHFT LINE AND UPR TROF WILL SET OFF SCT TSRA THIS EVE.  EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AFT SNST AND THINKING ATTM IS NOT TO SEE A
SCNDRY REDEVELOPMENT AS WE DID LAST NIGHT.  MDLS CONT TO INDICATE
CLOSED LO OVR NERN MT WIL TRACK FARTHER W THAN PREV INDICATED WITH
UPR RDGG TAKING PLACE OVR THE ERN CONUS...ENHANCED IN PART BY
TROPICAL DVLPMT.  UPSHOT IS THAT THE FCST PKG TDA WILL BE DRIER AND
A BIT WARMER THAN PREV PACKAGES.  FEELING IS THAT THINGS WILL CONT
TO TREND DRIER THRU THE WKND WITH PCPN HOLDING OFF FOR THE MOST PART
UNTIL TUE NGT OR SO AS THE UPR LOW LFTS NEWD AROUND THE BLDG UPR HI
OVR THE ERN STATES.  TEMPS FCST A LTL BLO NORM...BUT MAY ACTUALLY
SEE THEM TURN OUT CLOSER TO NORM IT CUR TRENDS CONT.

&&

.AVIATION...14/18Z

VFR CONDITIONS INTO MID OR LATE AFTERNOON WHEN NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT ERN IA. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WELL ORGANIZED...WITH SCENARIO BEING THAT DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER
NERN IA/SOUTHWEST WI AND PROPAGATES SWWD. OTHER SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA...MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME. KALO AND KOTM TAFS ARE HAVE HIGHEST CHANCE UNTIL DISIPATION
AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOOKING FOR SOME FOG TO REDEVELOP
TOWARD 10Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH DISSIPATION AROUND 13Z.
AFTER THAT...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FROM CANADA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...MS AUG 08
AVIATION...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
522 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-047>050-062-151030-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-
TAMA-POWESHIEK-
522 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LIMITED AND MARGINAL AT BEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

IAZ044>046-057>061-070>075-081>086-092>097-151030-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-CASS-
ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-
MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
522 AM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LIMITED AND MARGINAL AT BEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 92. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MOYER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
559 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

IAZ049-050-061-062-074-075-084>086-150100-
MARSHALL-TAMA-JASPER-POWESHIEK-MARION-MAHASKA-LUCAS-MONROE-
WAPELLO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARSHALLTOWN...TOLEDO...NEWTON...
GRINNELL...KNOXVILLE...OSKALOOSA...CHARITON...ALBIA...OTTUMWA
559 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2008

...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FUNNEL CLOUDS THROUGH MID EVENING...

CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FUNNEL
CLOUDS. USUALLY...THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN FORM FROM SHOWERS AND
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THESE FUNNELS ARE NORMALLY BRIEF...DROP ONLY
A FEW HUNDRED FEET FROM THE CLOUD BASE...AND RARELY BECOME A
TORNADO OR CAUSE DAMAGE. HOWEVER...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...PLEASE
REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR RELAY TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. IF A TORNADO WARNING WOULD BECOME
NECESSARY...TAKE APPROAPRIATE ACTION.

DONAVON

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