Severe Thunderstorm Warning 488, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 041241
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
741 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

IAC091-109-147-151-041300-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0488.000000T0000Z-080804T1300Z/
KOSSUTH IA-PALO ALTO IA-POCAHONTAS IA-HUMBOLDT IA-
741 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT
FOR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT...NORTHERN POCAHONTAS...SOUTHEASTERN PALO ALTO
AND SOUTHERN KOSSUTH COUNTIES...

AT 738 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR OTTOSEN...OR 27 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT DODGE...MOVING
EAST AT 51 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LIVERMORE BY 750 AM CDT...
  LU VERNE BY 755 AM CDT...
  7 MILES NORTH OF HARDY BY 800 AM CDT...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE
OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG
BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT TORNADOES...WIND IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...HAIL LARGER THAN ONE
HALF INCH...OR STORM DAMAGE BY CALLING LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND
ASKING THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4311 9398 4276 9398 4272 9485 4292 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 1241Z 258DEG 44KT 4287 9435

$$

LEE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN IA ALONG WITH COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL IN NORTHERN
MO...MAINTAINING SLIGHT POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN IA. SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY KICK OFF PRECIP
LATE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE S/SW NEAR THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE.
GFS AND NAM HAVE BEEN BULLISH ON QPFS IN THIS AREA WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE...WHILE ECMWF HAS BEEN KEEPING THE PRECIP JUST SOUTHWEST
OVER KS/MO. BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIED LOW BECOMES MORE NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...PRODUCING SEVERAL QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY COOL DAYS/NIGHTS.
WILL SEE LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS SIGNIFICANT PORTIONS OF THE STATE
FOR SEVERAL NIGHTS...WITH NO SIGN OF 90 DEGREES FOR A WHILE. MID
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEKEND
WILL FLATTEN THE FLOW BACK TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY...WITH LONG RANGE
MODELS INDICATING PRECIP SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
NORTHEAST OF SFC LOW OVER NE/KS. WHILE THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS LONG RANGE SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO JUST LOWER CHANCE
CATEGORY ACROSS MOST OF THE SERVICE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...05/12Z
FRONT WL REMAIN ACRS NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR CIGS
PASSING ACRS MUCH OF IA.  SFC WINDS WL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH ACRS
THE STATE WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST THIS MORNING.  THE
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY MIDDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT IA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

&&

LEE/COGIL/REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
456 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

IAZ057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-051100-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
456 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA
ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN AUDUBON TO DES MOINES AND GRINNELL LINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TODAY. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
MAIN THREAT FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMPLE
MOISTURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-051100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
456 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS MORNING.
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH INCREASING INTENSITY. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

CC