Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 062218
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
518 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

IAC063-147-062230-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-080506T2230Z/
EMMET IA-PALO ALTO IA-
518 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR PALO ALTO AND SOUTHERN EMMET COUNTIES...

AT 515 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR EMMETSBURG...OR 23 MILES EAST OF
SPENCER...MOVING EAST AT 27 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CYLINDER AND 7 MILES NORTH OF RODMAN BY 530 PM CDT...

AT 507 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED HAIL UP TO QUARTER 
SIZE 2 MILES NORTH OF RUTHVEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN IOWA.

LAT...LON 4332 9489 4330 9447 4300 9445 4296 9446
      4291 9485 4291 9487 4291 9491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 270DEG 24KT 4312 9466

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC SCALE WARM FRONT IS WELL NORTH INTO MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SET DOWN BY CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL BE
LAUNCHING OR SUSTAINING POINT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. CURRENT SPEED OF SMALL BOWING SEGMENT OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA PUTS IT INTO PALO ALTO COUNTY BY 530 PM. CU FIELD THAT HAS
DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL IA WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD ALSO RANDOMLY
FIRE UP A FEW STORMS...BUT SO FAR MIXED LAYER CAPE REMAINS LOW...AND
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THE
MAIN SHOW SHOULD BE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN IA
THIS EVENING...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN FORM OF LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY LOW
FREEZING HEIGHTS. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT ARRIVES LATER WHEN
ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO GET GOING IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA SCOOTS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AND SKIRTS OVER OR NEAR
SOUTHERN IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO IT...SO THIS MAY END UP BEING MORE OF A SHORT-FUSED
HYDROLOGIC CONCERN. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK. JUST A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE TRACK WILL TAKE IT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. COLD FRONT
WILL BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES AFT 4 AM WITH A LEADING EDGE
OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WED THROUGH TUE/...
ISOLD HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS PAST DAY
BREAK WEDNESDAY IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH LINGERING STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALONG THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER.
THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH OF IOWA AROUND MIDDAY...WITH LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE TRICKY WITH CAA NORTH
AND MORE PRECIP/CLOUDS SOUTH. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO BUMP UP TEMPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TO AROUND 70 BEFORE THE
COOLER AIR LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE NAM/GFS/SREF ARE ALL INDICATING MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO IMPACT
IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE LEFT THE FRIDAY PERIOD DRY FOR
COORDINATION PURPOSES...BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE STILL FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BASED ON THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS AND ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS TO BE MINIMAL.

LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL
SHAKY BUT DECIDED TO PULL POPS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A MUCH DEEPER WESTERN CONUS TROF
THAN THE GFS AND IS SLOWER BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO IOWA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z
CONVECTIVE DETAILS PROBLEMATIC IN THIS TAF PACKAGE. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY ORGANIZED TSTMS THRU 00Z. THEREAFTER...COMPLEX OF TSTMS OVER
SOUTHEAST SD WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN IA...BUT SHOULD BE CLEARED BY
08Z...WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHRA FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER. KDSM HAS THE LOWEST CONFIDENCE OF GETTING TSRA SO HANDLED
THAT WITH A CB REMARK FOR PERIOD OF GREATEST CONCERN. ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXPECTED TO ROLL EAST ACROSS THE IA/MO BORDER
LATE TONIGHT MAY AFFECT KOTM AFT 09Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOYER
LONG TERM...KINNEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
346 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

IAZ027-028-037>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-072100-
BUTLER-BREMER-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
346 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING. SEVERE
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
THE MAIN THREAT FROM DAMAGING HAIL AND WINDS. AMPLE MOISTURE MAY
ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS PRODUCING LOCALIZED
FLOODING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AN ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTS WOULD ALSO BE APPRECIATED.

IAZ005-024-072100-
KOSSUTH-HUMBOLDT-
346 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

A FLOOD WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERAL CHANCES FOR NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE APPRECIATED.

IAZ004-006-007-015>017-023-025-026-033>036-072100-
EMMET-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-POCAHONTAS-
WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-
346 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY TONIGHT...WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERAL CHANCES FOR NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ON LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE APPRECIATED.

MOYER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
448 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0447 PM     HAIL             ESTHERVILLE             43.40N 94.83W
05/06/2008  E0.75 INCH       EMMET              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

&&

MRUSSELL