Severe Thunderstorm Warning 370, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
325 PM CDT WED JUL 02 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WSHFT LN HAS NOW MOVED SE OF KDSM WITH SCNDRY...AND REAL...CDFNT ON
A KDEH...KBNW...KTQE LINE.  EXPECT TSRA TO DVLP ALL ALONG THE FNT
AND DROP SOUTH OF THE STATE BY LATER TNGT.  GUD PUSH ON THE FNT
ATTM...BUT WEAKENS THU AS NEXT S/WV MOVS INTO THE AREA.  WENT WITH
SOME LOW POPS OVR THE FAR S BFR 06Z FRI.  WAA WILL BRING MSTR BACK
INTO THE STATE BY SUN NGT AND WILL SEE THE RAIN CHCS INC.  WILL KEEP
THE CHCS FOR RAIN IN THE FCST INTO TUE.  WRMG TREND AFT THU INTO ERY
NEXT WEEK.  THE REAL WARM AIR NOT LKLY UNTIL AFT THIS FCST PD HWVR.
MOS TEMPS LK REASONABLE AND OPTED CLOSER TO THE ENS TEMPS THAN OPNL.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH KMCW AND KFOD...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THEIR
CHANCES OF SEEING ANY TSRA...HOWEVER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
KALO...AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS NEARING KDSM...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THESE TWO SFC FEATURES WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH CONVECTION SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO KOTM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOKS LIKE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS SOUTH OF THE STATE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...WITH SKIES
CLEARING AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO STATE. HAVE CURRENTLY TRIED TO
NAIL DOWN THUNDERSTORM TIMING...WITH GREATEST CHANCES OF TSRA AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION INTO THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MJA
LONG TERM...MS JUL 08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
353 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>027-033>036-044-045-031100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-
HAMILTON-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-
353 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20 UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY SEVERE THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

IAZ028-037>039-046>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-031100-
BREMER-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
353 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
IS LIKELY WITH THE STORMS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY WITH
THESE. ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...HOWEVER IT IS TO DETERMINE THE SEVERE THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT THOUGH EARLY EVENING
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 34...AND THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THAT.