Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 252337
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

IAC015-049-153-169-260000-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0307.000000T0000Z-080626T0000Z/
BOONE IA-STORY IA-POLK IA-DALLAS IA-
637 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN DALLAS...NORTHERN POLK...SOUTHWESTERN STORY AND
SOUTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES...

AT 635 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MADRID...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF DES
MOINES...MOVING EAST AT 21 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  7 MILES NORTH OF POLK CITY BY 645 PM CDT...
  SHELDAHL BY 650 PM CDT...
  SLATER AND KELLEY BY 655 PM CDT...
  HUXLEY...ALLEMAN...8 MILES SOUTH OF AMES AIRPORT AND 9 MILES
  NORTHWEST OF ELKHART BY 700 PM CDT...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 92 AND 107.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE
HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE
TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4170 9339 4172 9389 4194 9401 4211 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 262DEG 18KT 4186 9380

$$

ALBRECHT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS QUITE COMPLEX AS THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES
OVER/NEAR THE CWA.  CURRENTLY WE ARE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH 4000 J/KG
OF CAPE OVER THE SW THIRD OF IA BUT SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK...GENERALLY
20-25KTS OR LESS.  OVER THE NORTHWEST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXISTS
FROM A LOW IN NE MN.  THE FRONT EXTENDS INTO FAR NW IA THEN ALONG
THE NEB/SDKTA BORDER.  THERE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT BUT SO FAR IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE/SUSTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS.  ALOFT...THE FLOW IS WEAK AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
SUPPORT.  HOWEVER...RUC ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT
CENTERS...ONE OVER NW IA...PROBABLY AIDING IN THE SHOWERS UP
THERE...AND ONE IN NORTHEAST KS MOVING INTO SW IA.  CAPE VALUES IN
THIS AREA ARE EVEN HIGHER THAN IN SW IA AND THERE ARE NO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING YET.  HAVING SAID ALL THIS...ANY ONE OF
THESE FEATURES CAN TRIGGER STORMS TONIGHT AT ANY TIME.  THE LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR IS THE PERPLEXING PART.

MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE BETTER OVER MN CLOSER TO THE LOW.  I
WOULD EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO INITIATE THERE THEN TRAVEL DOWN THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS EVENING.  I BELIEVE THE NAM HAS A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE SCENARIO DEVELOPING THE PRECIP FURTHER SOUTH...WHERE THE THE
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY SAG INTO THE HIGH CAPE AREA.  LATER TONIGHT A
LLJ DEVELOPS AND THIS WILL PROBABLY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
MCS MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  WITH
THE HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY OVER JUST WHERE INITIATION WILL BEGIN
I HAVE PLACED CHANCE POPS OVER THE CWA FOR TONIGHT.  THE HIGHEST
POPS STILL REMAIN NORTH BUT WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTH...ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DOWN THERE WILL ALSO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /THU-WED/...
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD REMAINS WITHIN THE FIRST 60 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AT 12Z THURSDAY. THE BIGGER SHOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A
DEVELOPING MCS OVER WYOMING LATE THIS EVENING THEN ROLL THROUGH
SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT BEFORE REACHING NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. SOME SFC HEATING IS LIKELY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO DEVELOP FOR
THE STORMS TO FEED ON. SEVERE STORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVES ON FRIDAY. GOOD
INSTABILITY LIKELY AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH MIX LAYER CAPES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG HOWEVER THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH. STILL ENOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN FOR SOME SEVERE MULTICELL
STORMS AND ISOLATED SUPER CELLS.

THE WEEKEND WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING
SLOWING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING CYCLONIC
FLOW TO IOWA. HAVE COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ADDED LOW POPS TO
THE NORTHEAST FOR EACH AFTERNOON AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. GRADUALLY WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
DIFFICULT FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE MOISTURE
VERY WELL.  LOW PRESSURE OVER MN HAS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW TO NR
NW IA THEN INTO SERN SDKTA AND NRN NEB.  THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BREAKING OUT PRECIP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT
WITH WEAK TO NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...CONVECTION WILL HAVE TO BE
BASED LARGELY ON CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.  ONCE THE STORMS START
TO DEVELOP THEY SHOULD GO QUICKLY IN THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WE ARE
IN.  WE MAY NEED THE HELP OF THE LLJ TO GET THINGS GOING.  IN THAT
CASE IT WOULD BE LATER THIS EVENING.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT
THE STORMS MAY FIRE FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT IN WHICH CASE THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES WOULD ALSO BE AT RISK OF STORMS.  I HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION AS SAT PIX SHOWING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER
SRN/CENT NEB.  MVFR COND W/ LCL IFR COND WL PREVAIL IN TSRA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...DONAVON
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
402 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-262115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
402 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WITH TORNADOES A SECONDARY THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS ON
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

IAZ057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-262115-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
402 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

A FEW RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE DES MOINES
RIVER BELOW SAYLORVILLE RESERVOIR AND THE LOWER SOUTH SKUNK
RIVER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SEVERE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WITH TORNADOES A SECONDARY THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS ON
FRIDAY.

RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK ALONG THE DES
MOINES RIVER BELOW SAYLORVILLE AND THE LOWER SOUTH SKUNK RIVER
BASIN. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...BUT WILL BE MONITORED
IN THE EVENT THAT HEAVY RAINFALL ELEVATES RIVER LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY.

FAB