Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 100103
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
804 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

IAC025-151-100130-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-080610T0130Z/
POCAHONTAS IA-CALHOUN IA-
804 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHERN POCAHONTAS COUNTIES...

AT 759 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR POMEROY...OR 25 MILES EAST OF STORM
LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 24 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  PALMER BY 815 PM CDT...
  MANSON BY 820 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 4258 9491 4261 9491 4271 9464 4268 9445
      4263 9445 4246 9450 4248 9492 4254 9492
      4257 9491 4258 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0104Z 275DEG 21KT 4260 9468

$$

ALBRECHT

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 100120
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
820 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

IAC025-151-100130-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-080610T0130Z/
POCAHONTAS IA-CALHOUN IA-
820 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHERN
POCAHONTAS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 816 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED...AND NO 
LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4258 9491 4261 9491 4271 9464 4268 9445
      4263 9445 4246 9450 4248 9492 4254 9492
      4257 9491 4258 9492
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 275DEG 21KT 4259 9455

$$

ALBRECHT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
650 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
12 TO 15Z MORNING SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAKENING BOUNDARY OVER
WI..IA..KS SOUTHWEST TO OK WITH MOISTURE POOLED SOUTH OF THE FRONT
AND DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LVL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS CANADA HAS SWUNG EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MN. MAIN FOCUS OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE STATE TODAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 WITH
EVOLUTION OF NEXT LEE SIDE TROUGH EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WED
THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH NEEDED BREAK IN RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING FOR MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH
WHERE SOME SCT THUNDER MAY DEVELOP LATE TUES AFTERNOON ALONG AXIS OF
THETAE ADVECTION. BY TUES NIGHT LLJET BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE
REGION WITH INCREASING SFC MOISTURE. LOOKS LIKE NOCTURNAL THUNDER
WILL BE ONGOING BY AM HOURS OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE WITH POSSIBLE QUICK HIT AT QPF OF .25 TO .50 OR SO OVER THOSE
AREAS BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WEAKENS WITH TIME. AS THE
FORECAST AREA BECOMES CAPPED WITH H700 10C LID...EXPECT MOST OF THE
THUNDER TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE UNCOMFORTABLE DAY ON THE WAY FOR THE REGION. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES FOR WED NIGHT AND THURS...THUNDER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. MODELS
AT ODDS ON TIMING OF FRONTAL EXIT...AND FAVOR THE SLOWER EURO/GEM
OVER THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE
EASTERN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US. TEMPS TO BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ESPECIALLY
WED AS THE WARM SECTOR OVERTAKES THE AREA. DEW POINTS WILL AGAIN
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S AS WELL MAKING FOR UNCOMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. CAPE TO RISE OVER 3000 J/KG BY WED PM WITH WEAK CAP OVER
THE AREA. SCT THUNDER STILL A GOOD BET FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS MOST
AREAS. BEST BULK SHEAR WED NIGHT AND THUR BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH SVR OUT
AHEAD OF IT. OVER THE WEEKEND THE FLOW TURNS MORE WEST
NORTHWESTERLY. NORMALLY A GOOD THING...BUT SOME INDICATION THAT A
FEW WAVES WILL TRANSITION SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA AND BRING SCT STORMS
TO THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION WHICH WOULD
DECREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES...BUT LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN FOR MORE
SCT SVR STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WEAK SYSTEMS WIGGLE SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME. 12Z GFS IS NOW SHOWING A SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR SCT STORMS
AFTER THE WED-FRI EVENT...THOUGH THE TIMING IS NOT IN CONCERT WITH
THE OTHER MODELS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS ALWAYS AN ISSUE
AFTER 5 DAYS. AT LEAST THE PATTERN CHANGING TO A SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW BREAKS FROM TIME TO TIME
PROVIDED THE SOUTHWEST US RIDGE DOES NOT BULGE NORTH AND INTENSIFY
THE WESTERLIES. TEMPS FOR THE EXTENDED HAVE BEEN DECREASED WITH
EXPECTED DROP IN THICKNESS...AND LIKELIHOOD THAT EITHER MORE CLOUDS
OR SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/18Z
A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING AND WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARD SUNSET. MAY HAVE VCTS NEAR DSM AND OTM THOUGH
NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z SHOULD BE
WIDESPREAD ACRS CNTRL IA THROUGH THE PERIODS WITH WESTERLY SFC FLO.

&&

 .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM/SHORT TERM...REV
AVIATON...DONAVON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
536 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-101100-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
536 AM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE ARE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IOWA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS QUITE LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT IT IS AGAIN RATHER LOW.

MORE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN THE FORM OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINS
MAY OCCUR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF IOWA.
WITH SOILS QUITE SATURATED ANY HEAVY RAINS...WHICH MAY EXCEED
SEVERAL INCHES LOCALLY...MAY CAUSE EXISTING FLOODING TO PERSIST OR
WORSEN OR DEVELOP IN OTHER AREAS.

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXIST IN SOME PARTS OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND IS YET TO BE DETERMINED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

SMALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
616 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0614 PM     HAIL             5 SSW PELLA AIRPORT     41.33N 92.98W
06/09/2008  E1.00 INCH       MARION             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STEACHOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             5 SSW BEDFORD           40.60N 94.75W
06/09/2008  M1.00 INCH       TAYLOR             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

STEACHOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
730 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             5 ESE BEDFORD           40.64N 94.65W
06/09/2008  E0.88 INCH       TAYLOR             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO NICKEL HAIL

&&

PODRAZIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
743 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 SSW BEDFORD           40.60N 94.75W
06/09/2008  M1.25 INCH       TAYLOR             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.25 INCHES IN JUST OVER ONE HOUR.

&&

PODRAZIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
750 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             N NEMAHA                42.52N 95.09W
06/09/2008  E0.75 INCH       SAC                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PODRAZIK