Severe Thunderstorm Warning 175, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS53 KDMX 072307
SVSDMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
605 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

IAC025-151-161-072330-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0175.000000T0000Z-080607T2330Z/
POCAHONTAS IA-SAC IA-CALHOUN IA-
605 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN CALHOUN...NORTHEASTERN SAC AND SOUTHERN POCAHONTAS
COUNTIES...

AT 600 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR FONDA...OR 20 MILES EAST OF STORM LAKE...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 39 MPH.  

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  POMEROY BY 610 PM CDT...
  PALMER AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MANSON BY 620 PM CDT...

THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WEST OF SAC CITY THAT 
WILL BE MOVING OVER SAC CITY BY 615 PM CDT.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING 
FOR NORTHERN IOWA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH 
LITTLE OR NO WARNING. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF A TORNADO 
IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY 
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 4256 9493 4263 9492 4280 9446 4248 9446
      4241 9502 4256 9510 4257 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 246DEG 34KT 4256 9477

$$

MOYER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT THE INCREASED SFC WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA. INFLOW NOW UP TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THOUGH WINDS SHOULD DROP A
BIT AFTER SUNSET...SOME GUSTS AND INFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
STATE...STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH AND APPROACHING WAVE
ENERGY.  PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT EARLY EVENING THREAT FOR TORNADOES
WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAIN AND WIND THREAT AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WELL IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. FOR NOW THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE CAP IS NOT PRESENT.
MODELS DIFFER IN CAP EROSION OVERNIGHT WITH GFS CONTINUING TO
INDICATE THE CAP WILL HOLD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH EURO/NAM SUGGESTING A MUCH MORE MARGINAL CAP OVER THE
AREA. WILL LEAN CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW TOWARD GREATER THUNDER
POTENTIAL AS CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE AREA IS RATHER STRONG AND BOTH
GFS/NAM CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST BACK BUILDING/TRAINING STORMS A
PRETTY GOOD POSSIBILITY TOWARD 06Z/12Z ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THAT
IN MIND...
HAVE EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A FEW COUNTIES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. STILL NOT A CERTAINTY FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

WITH THE MAIN WAVE ARRIVING ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL BE
LOOKING AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ANOTHER WAVE RIDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER
TNTS STORMS EVOLVE...WILL BE REEVALUATING WHERE THE BEST PLACEMENT
OF ANY NEW FF.A WILL BE. TEMPS TO CONTINUE WARM WITH MODEST LEVELS
OF HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA. LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME FOR
THIS PACKAGE...SO AFTER A BREAK ON TUESDAY...ANOTHER WARM AIR
ADVECTION THUNDER EVENT IS POSSIBLE WED WITH MORE WET WEATHER
THROUGH THURS/FRI. TIMING OF LATTER WEEK EVENT IS STILL IN QUESTION
BUT CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SLOWER EURO...WHICH IS NOW KEEPING STORMS
AROUND FOR FRIDAY. GIVEN CURRENT ACTIVE WX...HAVE NOT FOCUSED
HEAVILY ON EXTENDED CHANGES AND MAY HAVE TO MODIFY TIMING OF LATE
WEEK PRECIP TOMORROW. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...
DEPENDING ON THE OUTFLOW THIS EVENING POSSIBLE THAT STORMS MAY
EXTEND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MANY PARAMETERS
CONTINUE TO COME TOGETHER FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING TONIGHT.  300-310K MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS
LLJ STRENGTHENS...ALONG WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND HIGH END K
INDEX.  PWS AROUND 2 INCHES...MEAN WIND PARALLEL TO FRONT AND WEAK
CORFIDI VECTOR MOVEMENT ALL SUGGEST HEAVY TRAINING RAINS.  SHOULD
AGAIN BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH HIGH WCDS.  300-310K MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE AMONG MODELS HOWEVER SO HAVE BROAD
BRUSHED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BE SAFE WITH NO FAVORED LOCATIONS.
JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS ARE JUICED AND WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL FLOODING.  QPF AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS
PREVIOUS EVENTS...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH UNFORTUNATELY. WILL
MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WATCH...BUT EXPAND A FEW COUNTIES SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACRS SOUTHERN IA WITH WIDESPREAD CU THROUGHOUT IA
THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH LCL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND TSRA.  SFC
WNDS WL RMN STG FROM THE SSW.  EXPECT TSRA TO BECOME WDSPRD LATE
TONIGHT WITH SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME.

&&

.DMX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT EXPANDED SOUTHEAST TO GENERALLY
ALONG AND NW OF LAMONI-KNOXVILLE-GRINNELL LINE.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...COGIL/REV
LONG TERM...REV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
511 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>074-
081>084-092>094-082215-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-
LUCAS-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
511 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM EVENT IS UNFOLDING WITH SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR INCLUDING LARGE HAIL
...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY REACH ONE TO TWO INCHES...AND POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF THREE
INCHES LATER IN THE EVENING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY WITH THE CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF VARIED DEGREES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH PEAK PROBABILITIES AROUND THURSDAY...WHICH
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLY HEAVY
RAINS AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT FOR MANY AREAS AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS APPEAR TO BE TONIGHT...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN AROUND THURSDAY.

IAZ075-085-086-095>097-082215-
MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
511 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. IF
STORMS DO MATERIALIZE...THEY WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OF VARIED DEGREES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH PEAK PROBABILITIES AROUND THURSDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINS AS WELL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL EXIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS APPEAR TO
BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN AROUND THURSDAY.

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
451 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TORNADO          3 ESE NORTHWOOD         43.43N 93.16W
06/07/2008                   WORTH              IA   STORM CHASER

            SMALL DEBRIS CLOUD

&&

PODRAZIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
501 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     TORNADO          2 NNW LELAND            43.36N 93.65W
06/07/2008                   WINNEBAGO          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOG CONFINEMENT DAMAGED.

&&

STEACHOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
503 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             SCARVILLE               43.47N 93.62W
06/07/2008  M2.00 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DELAYED REPORT

&&

STEACHOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
511 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     TORNADO          2 SW LAKE MILLS         43.40N 93.56W
06/07/2008                   WINNEBAGO          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOUSE DAMAGE AND ALONG R74 ROOF BLOWN OFF SHED.

&&

STEACHOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
515 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW THOMPSON          43.31N 93.79W
06/07/2008                   WINNEBAGO          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT OF POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

STEACHOU

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
549 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             3 N THOMPSON            43.41N 93.78W
06/07/2008  E1.00 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IA   NSSL-SHAVE

0345 PM     HAIL             4 ENE THOMPSON          43.40N 93.70W
06/07/2008  E0.88 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IA   NSSL-SHAVE

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW LAKE MILLS        43.43N 93.62W
06/07/2008                   WINNEBAGO          IA   NSSL-SHAVE

            4 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN

0355 PM     HAIL             3 WSW SCARVILLE         43.45N 93.68W
06/07/2008  E1.25 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IA   NSSL-SHAVE

0400 PM     HAIL             2 SW SCARVILLE          43.45N 93.65W
06/07/2008  E0.88 INCH       WINNEBAGO          IA   NSSL-SHAVE

&&

BMOYER