Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
649 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
OBVIOUS PRIMARY FOCUS IS CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT.  BASICALLY
GEARED THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CWA.  EXPLOSIVE POTENTIAL CURRENTLY EXISTS WEST OF IOWA AND
THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH INTO IOWA DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT WHETHER WE
WILL BE ABLE TO REALIZE THE CAPE AVAILABLE BUT WE WILL HAVE VERY
STRONG SHEAR OVER THE CWA AND A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PUSHING IN.  WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE THE STRONG STORMS PUSH
INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY 30/03Z.  FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN.  THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 20 AND 30 HAS
PRODUCED AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THIS AREA.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST MAINLY OVERNIGHT
AND THIS WILL AGGRAVATE ALREADY WET SOILS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO FRI...SEVERE THREAT IS CERTAINLY THERE AGAIN BUT
SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON FATE OF EARLY MORNING MCS.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER WEAK...BUT MLCAPES TURN OUT TO
BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS OCCURRING TODAY WITH NIL CIN.  0-1KM SHEAR/SR
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE...BUT DEEPER 0-6KM SHEAR QUITE STRONG AND
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS SO ALTHOUGH TORNADO THREAT MAY NOT BE AS
GREAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGE WINDS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE.  CONSIDERING
THE RELATIVELY LOW LCLS AND INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT EITHER.

MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG CONTINUE TO SHOW UP OVER THE WEEKEND SO
ISOLATED CELLS COULD STILL POP UP...HENCE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK...UNFORTUNATELY HAVE EXTENDED PERIOD OF
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WITH NO PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WX IN SIGHT.
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL IT SLIDES EAST TOWARD
DAYS 6/7...BUT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH SHRT WV TRACK FAR ENOUGH
N TO DRY US OUT MUCH.  NO REAL ALTERATIONS TO TEMPS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH AFOREMENTIONED LACK OF PATTERN CHANGE KEEPING
SEASONAL READINGS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
VIGOROUS SYSTEM MOVING IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. IN
ADDITION TO THE STORMS...THE NORTH WILL BE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CLOUD
COVER NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED BY
FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER THREAT OF STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT I80 TO
MN BORDER IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062.

&&

LONG TERM/SHORT TERM...BSS/FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
413 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-302115-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-
413 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. TO THE EAST
OF I35...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST BULLETIN ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DES MOINES WEBSITE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. SOME
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE EAST OF I35 WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
FRIDAY.

IAZ070>075-081>086-092>097-302115-
CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-
MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
413 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. WEST OF INTERSTATE 35...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. TO THE EAST
OF I35...THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL.

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE AREA RECEIVED LITTLE
OR NO RAINFALL EARLIER THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AT THIS TIME
IS MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. SOME
STORMS WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE EAST OF I35 WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THEY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N BAXTER              41.84N 93.15W
05/30/2008                   JASPER             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FUNNEL CLOUD 1 MILE NORTH OF BAXTER.

&&

RVACHALE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
106 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1255 AM     TORNADO          1 NW ADEL               41.62N 94.04W
05/30/2008                   DALLAS             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTED FOR TIME

&&

MS MAY 08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
115 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0102 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW ADEL               41.63N 94.05W
05/30/2008                   DALLAS             IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN AT 270TH STREET...NORTHWEST OF
            ADEL.

&&

RVACHALE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
138 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0111 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW MAXWELL            41.92N 93.44W
05/30/2008                   STORY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER OVER GRAVEL ROAD FROM DRAINAGE OFF FARM FIELDS.

&&

ALBRECHT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
140 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0138 AM     TSTM WND GST     CRESTON                 41.06N 94.36W
05/30/2008  M58 MPH          UNION              IA   MESONET

            SCHOOLNET SITE

&&

MS MAY 08