River Flood Warning 94, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS TO BE CONCERNED WITH TONIGHT.  FIRST ACROSS
THE NORTH...WATER VAPOR IS CLEARLY DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE DROPPING
OUT OF THE DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  THERE IS A
500MB COLD POOL OVER THAT AREA AS WELL AS A SURFACE LOW AND THIS
IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THESE STORMS WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHERN IOWA THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT NEARLY AS
RICH.  NORTHERN IOWA IS OUT OF THE AREA OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF WHERE THE STORMS ARE GOING UP.   SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE NORTH THROUGH 00Z MAINLY TO BLEND BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT AS THE STORMS RUN INTO THE FRONT IN EASTERN MN THEY
COULD BACK BUILD INTO NORTHERN IOWA.  THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
DRAMATICALLY DIMINISHES AFTER 7 PM HOWEVER AND I WILL GO DRY THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

AS FOR THE SOUTH...WE ARE STILL IN A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT THERE IS BETTER CAPE AND SHEAR IN
NORTHERN MISSOURI.  STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND STORM MOTION APPEARS TO BE ENE.  BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THESE WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA.
HAVING SAID THIS ITS HARD TO IGNORE THE 2000-3000 SB AND MUCAPES
OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND THE CIN THAT HAS BEEN ERODING.  AS A
RESULT...I WILL ALSO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE SOUTH.  SINCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS RATHER SMALL...WONT BE MENTIONING SEVERE
IN THE GRIDS BUT WILL UPDATE OTHER PRODUCTS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.
TEMPS DID NOT WARM AS MUCH TODAY AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT SO
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO TODAYS HIGHS AND HOURLY TEMPS GOING INTO
TONIGHT.

NOTHING OF NOTE THIS WEEKEND...BUT HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY NERN
PORTIONS.  ROCKIES RIDGE THEN BEGINS PUSHING EWD RETURNING IA TO AN
ACTIVE GETTING FORECAST AREA BACK INTO WARM ADVECTION ZONE WHICH IS
FOLLOWED BY ACTIVE SWLY FLOW.  GFS AND ECMWF AND VERY DIFFERENT
VERSION OF WHICH SHRT WV TO EMPHASIZE...BUT DO NOT HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO LEAVE ANY ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD DRY FOR NOW SO HAVE
BROAD BRUSHED EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS.

MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS PACKAGES...HAVE KEPT THINGS CLOSE TO SEASONAL
TEMPS BUT CONFIDENCE HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT.  LARGE DEVIATIONS IN
TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT WITH 00Z ECMWF ALMOST 20F WARMER THAN PAST
TWO GFS RUNS.  WILL STAY TOWARD PERSISTENCE FOR THE TIME
BEING...CLOSER TO THE WARMER END FOR NOW...AS THERE IS NO STRONG
FEELING IN EITHER DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD INSTABILITY
CONVECTION POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE HAVE MADE NO MENTION IN SITES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

BSS/FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
329 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

IAZ007-016-017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-312030-
WORTH-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-
BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-
BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-
AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-
WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-
329 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 94.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THOUGH SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

FLOOD WARNINGS EXIST FOR SEVERAL RIVERS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA. FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON RIVERS PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE
MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY. AN
ORGANIZED AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT.

IAZ081>086-092>097-312030-
ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-
WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
329 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF CENTRAL IOWA
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 94.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 7 PM. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE A SEVERE STORM WOULD
BE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM OSKALOOSA TO LAMONI. HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

THERE ARE NUMEROUS RIVERS IN FLOOD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODING PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE
MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY. AN
ORGANIZED AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT.

IAZ004>006-015-312030-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-PALO ALTO-
329 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A SMALL PART OF NORTH CENTRAL
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF
THE STORMS DO DEVELOP THEN AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.  HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM.

THERE ARE NUMEROUS RIVERS IN FLOOD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODING PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. THE
MOST LIKELY DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY. AN
ORGANIZED AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BUT MAY BE NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT.

FAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1034 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     TSTM WND DMG     E FARNHAMVILLE          42.28N 94.42W
05/29/2008                   CALHOUN            IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FARM BUILDINGS BLOWN DOWN AND POWER LINES DOWN JUST EAST
            OF FARNHAMVILLE. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

MALBRECH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1038 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GOWRIE                  42.28N 94.29W
05/29/2008                   WEBSTER            IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BUILDING DEBRIS BLOWN ONTO HIGHWAY D60 JUST NORTH OF
            HIGHWAY 175 NEAR GOWRIE. FROM KCCI TV.

&&
CORRECTED TIME AND DATE.

MALBRECH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1047 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0451 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S LACONA              41.15N 93.38W
05/30/2008                   LUCAS              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREE DOWN. OTHER DAMAGE ACROSS NORTHERN LUCAS
            COUNTY.

&&
CORRECTED DATE.

MALBRECH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1050 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NNW MARYSVILLE        41.23N 92.99W
05/30/2008                   MARION             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SIGNIFICANT HOUSE DAMAGE IN AND NEAR ATTICA. POSSIBLE
            TORNADO. ALSO DAMAGE SOUTH OF MELCHER-DALLAS.

&&
CORRECTED DATE.

MALBRECH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1102 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E MANNING             41.91N 95.03W
05/29/2008                   CARROLL            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TWO VEHICLES BLOWN OFF ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&
CORRECTED DATE AND TIME.

MALBRECH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1128 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     TSTM WND GST     CRESTON                 41.06N 94.36W
05/30/2008  E60 MPH          UNION              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MS MAY 08