River Flood Warning 218, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
550 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY
CDFNT HAS NEARLY EXITED THE CWA WITH COLD AIR ADVANCING MORE IN LINE
WITH THE NAM RATHER THAN THE SLOWER GFS.  WILL CONT TO PUSH COLD AIR
SWD THRU THE DAY.  FIRST ROUND OF WX GOING THRU THE SERN PART OF THE
CWA INVOF THE CDFNT AND JUST POST FROPA.  WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
UPR LOW OVR SRN CO TO BRING THE NEXT ROUND.  SHUD SEE SOME VIRGA FOR
A WHILE...WITH MAIN PCPN STARTING TO SPREAD TWD 15Z OR SO.  CARRIED
A MIXTURE OF PCPN GRDLY CHNGG OVR TO SNW AS WE MOVE INTO THE EVE
HRS.  WILL HOIST THE WSW FOR POTENTIAL FZRA FM S CNTRL INTO THE NERN
COUNTIES.  DO NOT EXPECT LARGE AMTS...HWVR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF FZRA WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF THE ADVY.  WILL START OUT THE
ADVY OVR THE REST OF THE NERN COUNTIES AFT 12Z...WHICH WILL BE FOR A
COMBO OF FZRA...BUT MAINLY MARGINAL SNW AMTS.

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
SWATH OF DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LINGERING WARM LAYER ALOFT IN
THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME SLEET LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. AM BANKING ON THE DEF ZONE SNOW AXIS TO SET UP A BIT
FARTHER NW PER THE GFS. THIS WOULD GENERATE MAX 3-4 INCH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IN THE MASON CITY/WATERLOO AREAS...WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 06Z
SOUTH OF WATERLOO...AND TO 09Z TO THE NORTHWEST.

NO CHANGES TO FORECAST FROM SUNDAY ON...WITH NEXT CHC OF SNOW LATE
WED/THURS WITH CLIPPER SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...27/12Z
CDFNT ABOUT TO EXIT THE AREA WITH NWLY FLOW OVR SITES.  PROB WILL BE
WITH S/WV ROTATING OUT OF THE SWRN U.S.  WDSPRD SHOWERS AND TSRA IN
THE OTM AREA THRU THE DAY.  AS S/WV LIFTS NWD...MXD PCPN WILL SPREAD
OVR SITES TDA.  PCPN TO CHNG TO SNW LATE TDA AND END FM THE SW
BETWEEN 02Z ADN 08Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR BLACK HAWK-CLARKE-DECATUR-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
LUCAS-MARION-MARSHALL-POLK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN-WAYNE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-WORTH.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPANOOSE-CLARKE-
DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAMA-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

SHORT TERM...MS DEC 08
AVIATION...DONAVON
LONG TERM...KINNEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
642 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

IAZ050-061-062-073>075-083>086-093>097-281200-
TAMA-JASPER-POWESHIEK-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-
WAPELLO-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
642 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN IOWA...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM MOUNT AYR...TO
INDIANOLA AND TAMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TODAY...AND POSSIBLE
ICE JAMS COULD PRODUCE SHORT TERM FLASH FLOODING. FLOODING WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ALONG SOME CREEKS AND RIVERS...INCLUDING THE
CHARITON RIVER...CEDAR CREEK...AND ENGLISH CREEK. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS
MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED...ALONG
WITH MINOR SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT REPORTS OF SNOW AND
ICE AMOUNTS AND FLOODING ARE ENCOURAGED.

IAZ007-017-026>028-036>039-047>049-058>060-070>072-081-082-092-
281200-
WORTH-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-CASS-ADAIR-
MADISON-ADAMS-UNION-TAYLOR-
642 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA...FROM THE MASON CITY AND WATERLOO AREAS...SOUTH THROUGH THE
DES MOINES AND ATLANTIC AREAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CAN EXPECT ICE AMOUNTS AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR MORE...ALONG WITH SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES. LOCATIONS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 WILL RECEIVE LESSOR AMOUNTS
OF ICE AND SLEET...AND MORE SNOW. TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/DESMOINES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT REPORTS OF SNOW AND
ICE AMOUNTS ARE ENCOURAGED.

IAZ004>006-015-016-023>025-033>035-044>046-057-281200-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-
WRIGHT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-AUDUBON-
642 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KINNEY

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