River Flood Warning 190, NWS Des Moines, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
240 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008

.SHORT TERM...TODAY
EVOLUTION OF CURRENT MCS IS OBVIOUSLY PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS
MORNING WHICH LINES UP QUITE WELL WITH DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH 30-40KT LLJ NOTED ON 305/310K ISENT SFCS.  THIS
CONVERGENCE REACHES S CENTRAL/SE SECTIONS BY 12Z-15Z SO HAVE BOOSTED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THOSE LOCATIONS AND DIMINISHED NRN PORTIONS.
CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SUSTAINING ITSELF AND WILL LIKELY
INCREASE SOMEWHAT.  LIFTING PARCELS FROM VARIOUS ELEVATED LEVELS ON
THE RUC DEPICT STEADY 1500-2000 J/KG CAPES WITH DECREASING CIN AND
CONVECTION BEING ROOTED LOWER.  EFFECTIVE SRH AND ESPECIALLY
EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS BECOME ROOTED LOWER AS CINS SUGGEST SO MAY SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SVR THREAT TOWARD DAYBREAK.  HEAVY RAINS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS WELL WITH PWS AROUND TWO INCHES...13KFT WCDS...AND CELLS
TRACKING OVER SAME LOCATIONS.

AIRMASS SHOULD STABILIZE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH NO REAL
FORCING MECHANISM NOTED SO HAVE SLIGHTS/CHANCES LINGERING BY
THEN...MAINLY SRN PORTIONS.  SREF AND ESPECIALLY NAM RAW TEMPS ARE
NOT TOO BULLISH ON TEMPS WITH NAM SUGGESTING AREAS OF POST-PCPN
STRATUS SO WENT AT OR JUST BELOW GUIDANCE...LOWER END NE.

.LONG TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE IN PLACE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE CWA BY THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH BEST SFC BASED CAPE SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CWA. MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED STORMS INITIALLY WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT EXPECT MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WITH APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE THROUGH INTO THE LATER EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE EXPECTED TO POOL AHEAD OF APPROACHING WEAK
COOL FRONT SITUATED ACROSS ERN NE/WC IOWA...WITH PWATS APPROACHING
TWO INCHES. MAIN ACTIVITY STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH EVERYTHING PUSHING EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE
SOMEWHAT WASHED OUT...BUT IN VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH MAIN WEAK DISTURBANCES DROPPING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE AREA. HARD TO NAIL DOWN TIMING
AND PLACEMENT...BUT INSTABILITY TO REMAIN GREATEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
IOWA. LITTLE CHANGES MADE INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE...AS
WESTERN/CENTRAL US UPPER RIDGING FLATTENS SOME. HOWEVER STILL LOOKS
LIKE TREND FOR WEAK WAVES TO TRAVERSE THE RIDGE...AND IMPACT THE
AREA ALLOWING FOR UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE MOVE OVER CENTRAL IOWA THOUGH IS FALLING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND WILL MOVE INTO WRN IA LATER TONIGHT. MAIN SITES AFFECTED WILL BE
DSM THEN LATER OTM. MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED FOR A PERIOD ALL SITES AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES. ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY NORTH EXPECTED
AFTER 00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...BSS
LONG TERM...MJA
AVIATION...DONAVON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
500 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-251000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
500 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...INTO TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT
ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE AREA REMAINS IN AN
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

ALBRECHT

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